Climate Change Plan: third report on proposals and policies 2018-2032 – technical annex

Introduction

This report provides background information on the Scottish TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL EFOM System) model. This is a high-level strategic model, covering the Scottish energy system, as well as non-energy sectors, including Agriculture, Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry, and Waste. It was commissioned by the Scottish Government to enhance its analysis of the impact of emission reduction legislation on the energy system. Although this is the first time that a model like this has been available for Scotland, there are more than seventy country versions of TIMES, and TIMES modelling has underpinned a large number of studies in both environmental and energy economics produced by governments, NGOs and in academia.

Scottish TIMES belongs to a group of models that were developed by the IEA- ETSAP (the International Energy Agency's Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program) in order to examine long term energy dynamics over a time horizon.

Figure 1: Contracting Parties (Members of the IEA ETSAP Program) and MARKAL/TIMES Users; ETSAP

The Scottish TIMES model was built by an international consortium of experts from E4Tech, E4SMA, KANORS, SYSTRA and University College London ( UCL), building upon work done by the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy ( BEIS) on the UK TIMES model. TIMES models allow us to explore long-term energy scenarios and are ideally suited for the preparation of emissions reduction strategies, such as the Climate Change Plan. The application of the whole-system model has been a significant step forward in ensuring that our climate change planning captures the complex interactions within and between sectors, and ensures a greater consistency of approach than would be possible if we were to rely solely on sector models.

TIMES is a whole system energy model that captures the key characteristics of the Scottish energy system today, and considers the impacts on the future energy and emissions flows that result from the deployment of a range of processes and technologies. TIMES accounts for all the steps as energy flows through the system, from primary resources, through their transformation and distribution, to the ultimate objective of meeting demands from energy consumers. The chart below shows a simplification of how energy is currently supplied and consumed within the Scottish energy system.

Figure 2: Scottish Energy balance, Source: Energy in Scotland 2018

Given the central role of energy in delivering a low-carbon Scotland and the extent of the challenges faced in delivering secure, affordable and low-carbon energy, a separate Energy Strategy ^[1] also informed by the TIMES model was published in December 2017. This explores the options for delivering increasingly decarbonised electricity and heat, and the potential technological options for doing so.

This technical annex sets out:

• The Scottish TIMES model overview
• Model development from draft Climate Change Plan to final Climate Change Plan
• Sector Analysis - data inputs, constraints and results