Palliative care strategy - population data and research: overview

1. Introduction

The Palliative Care Strategy uses Public Health Scotland data and research studies to look at the populations of adults, children and young people who are living and dying with a wide range of health conditions that mean they need access to palliative care now and the future.

Scotland has an ageing population^[1], and our analyses show that by 2040 the population of people who will need palliative care in Scotland is projected to be 90% of all deaths with a rise of at least 12% from 2021. This increase is greatest among older adults. More people now live and die with multiple long term conditions and serious illnesses, and our data shows the impact of this on increasing palliative care population needs. More children with serious health conditions are living longer and becoming young adults who may need palliative care. Whole system planning for improved access to palliative care is essential. We also found evidence confirming the limitations and potential harms of using estimates of life-expectancy to plan and deliver palliative care by health and care services.

This paper gives an overview of current population data and service use provided by Public Health Scotland. We compared data from 2022/23 with pre-pandemic data to reduce the impact of Covid-19. Scottish Government analysts made projections for changes in population health based on 2021 data and explored how those will lead to increased palliative care needs for adults up to 2040. The Public Health Scotland population data reports are for all deaths, but additional population data for children were added separately.

Population data about palliative care gives us information to guide service delivery and development of local community networks for different groups of people in different places of care. Population data do not tell us about what matters to individual adults, children, young people, parents, or carers so this is covered in another strategy paper.