Keeping The Promise to our children, young people and families: progress update 2024

Ministerial Foreword by the First Minister and the Minister For Children, Young People and The Promise

First Minister

As the First Minister for Scotland my commitment to The Promise is as strong today as it was in 2020 when all recommendations set out by the Independent Care Review were accepted in full.

In March 2022, the Scottish Government published our Keeping The Promise Implementation Plan. Building on the structure of The Promise itself and the results of the Independent Care Review, the plan set out for the first time the actions and commitments that the Scottish Government will take to lead Scotland to keep The Promise. At the heart of all of these actions is the ambition that all children in Scotland grow up loved, safe and respected.

I had the privilege of writing the foreword to that Plan in my role as Deputy First Minister, and I am privileged once more to introduce the work that has been done so far.

A lot has happened since 2022. As a country we have continued to move forward from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, progressing in our journey of recovery from the effect it had on so many aspects of our lives. And yet we have met new challenges through the cost of living crisis and at a global level the atrocities in the Ukraine and in Gaza.

And in that time we as a Government have continued in our resolve to keep The Promise. This commitment to change supports the Scottish Government’s four priorities and is firmly rooted in our aim to eradicate child poverty and improve public services. The Promise is anti-poverty, and success will be built from our approach to pro-growth, fairness and focussed delivery of high quality public services.

The excellent work carried out in the past year by my predecessor and by the Minister for Children, Young People and The Promise has confirmed this commitment to change. It is my aim to carry on that good work across Cabinet to strengthen the cross-portfolio oversight of the actions and commitments that we must undertake.

I am resolute that we have moved forward in our drive towards keeping The Promise and remain confident that we will deliver it together by 2030. This year’s Programme for Government confirms our commitment to introduce additional local flexibility in how existing budgets and services can be reconfigured in the pursuit of a whole family approach. We will drive progress through our continued multi-year approach to Whole Family Wellbeing; support services from prebirth through to adult; improvements in our education and justice response; and packages of support for our young people transitioning from the children’s care service.

Progress that also recognises that the experience of being in care is lifelong, and that we must continue to ensure that the targeted and universal supports available recognise the impact on lives.

Keeping The Promise is not, and should never be, a political bargaining point. We are collective in our ambition, and we are collective in our action to change. This is a place for unity across the Parliament, across partners and across the country to deliver, together, the change required by us all.

We must continue to work together and we must continue to push harder. This is a huge undertaking and requires connection across systems, across services, and across organisations. No one person will guarantee our success, we all have parts to play and I thank you all for the dedication you have shown and that you continue to demonstrate.

In particular, I wish to acknowledge and thank the hard work and devotion across our workforce. The case for prevention over reaction is not a new one, but I know it is a difficult one in the context of delivering services on a daily basis. Your work across Scotland is recognised, appreciated and admired.

Thank you also to the care experienced community. We must, and we will, continue to engage with you to ensure that you remain at the heart of work underway. Your experience is crucial in helping to deliver the right change in the right way. Importantly we must improve how we demonstrate this change to ensure that it is seen, and it is felt by the children, young people, families and adults to whom it matters.

In presenting this update on progress by The Scottish Government it is in complement to the work led by Fiona Duncan to develop Plan 24-30. I would like to thank Fiona for this forward plan which, founded in realistic delivery, sets out not just what should happen next, but a clear and comprehensive route map on how it can happen.

The Promise sets out so clearly the case why if we think, act, and invest differently, the outcomes can be so improved. While we may be proud of our collective achievements across Scotland, we must also be very clear that our focus and pace must be sustained, and in some areas it must be improved. We know that there are areas where particular attention is required and I do not shy away from that fact.

The Scottish Government must lead from the front and you have that commitment from me and from my Cabinet and Ministerial team. Let me thank you all for sharing your continued commitment to do all we can, the very best we can, to make change happen and to keep love central in our ambition to improve lives.

John Swinney, First Minister

Minister for Children, Young People and The Promise

The role of Minister for Children, Young People and The Promise is a role that I feel truly honoured to hold. A role that I am personally invested in and that is rooted in my heart.

Since I came into post in April 2023, I have had the pleasure of visiting a wide range of projects and seeing many excellent examples of how change is having a positive impact on the lives of our children and families. Improvements that will ensure that for any child or young person who is engaged with care services they feel loved, valued and supported.

I have also had the honour of meeting a number of different children and young people who have been open and honest about their experiences and what further action we need to take. I am thankful to each and every person who has taken the time to speak with me and I value the insight and perspective your sharing has given me.

I’ve heard how important targeted support at the right time can be, and the impact that knowing there is scaffolding around you can have, helping you to stay steady in times of uncertainty. I’ve heard about the difference that solid and stable connections can make to outcomes and the difficulties that are faced when those connections break down.

Our focus on supporting families on the edge of care, backed by our commitment to Whole Family Wellbeing, is allowing us to see in action how the right guidance and help can benefit families, change outcomes and avoid crisis point.

We must continue this great work across Scotland but we must improve how we learn from each other and spread the impact of our work to ensure that the good practice that is happening can become common practice, and be replicated, where appropriate, across all of Scotland.

To help achieve this we must continue to increase public awareness and understanding of what care experience means and what The Promise means. We must drive out stigma and increase voice.

It is only by increasing this understanding that we will be able to carry the support and understanding required to achieve our shared goals to sustainably change lives, both now and of future generations.

In presenting this update from The Scottish Government I am encouraged by the progress against the actions and commitments that is being made. Progress that includes the introduction of the Scottish Recommended Allowance for kinship and foster carers which has benefitted over 9,000 families; the commitment made to a £2,000 Care Leaver Payment; the introduction of the Bairns’ Hoose Pathfinders and the Childrens Care & Justice Act; the support to adults with care experience through our roll out of trauma informed training; and our wider policy supports including through further education and employment.

We must continue to work together to push the pace and drive the focus of our actions. I believe that it is crucial that we can demonstrate and explain the positive change that our investment, resource and focus is making. The Promise Progress Framework, developed jointly with COSLA and The Promise Scotland will help us to do this and enable us to identify where things aren’t working and more support is needed.

With six years to go I am confident that the Promise can and will be kept, given the progress we have made already, the way we are currently setting the foundations now for more preventative actions, and the will and ambition of all of those who are working towards change. To get us there I welcome the work undertaken by Fiona Duncan to develop Plan 24-30 and to clearly set out the next steps required in a delivery focussed route for action.

Thank you all for your continued commitment to change and most of all thank you to the children, young people, adults and families for your continued direction and support as we strive together to bring the improvements that my Ministerial position gives me the privilege to lead.

Natalie Don-Innes, Minister for Children, Young People and The Promise

Cabinet Sub-Committee on The Promise

The Cabinet Sub-Committee on The Promise first met in October 2023. Its purpose is to explore progress on keeping The Promise and decision making on key issues during the life of the programme. It provides the opportunity to; direct and support Scotland’s commitment to keep The Promise; recognise the cross-portfolio commitments and interdependencies; provide a route for prioritisation, influence and challenging decision making to introduce the change required to improve the outcomes for children, young people, adults and families with care experience.

The Cabinet Sub-Committee aims to meet 4 times per year.

Independent Strategic Advisor for The Promise

Following the conclusion of the Independent Care Review, Fiona Duncan was appointed by Scottish Ministers to continue to set the strategic direction and culture to ensure the conclusions are fully realised by 2030.

The role of Independent Strategic Advisor for The Promise provides continuity in the leadership and the development of The Promise. The role of Independent Strategic Advisor and Chair of The Promise Scotland include direction to:

• Maintain and develop strategic relationships with key organisations to drive change consistent with realising the vision of the Independent Care Review
• Establish and oversee the required governance and accountability structures of The Promise Scotland
• Ensure an independent and impartial secretariat function is provided to The Oversight Board to enable that group to effectively discharge its role of holding Scotland to account for keeping The Promise

In this role Ms Duncan ultimately reports to the First Minister and regularly meets with the Minister for Children, Young People and The Promise and the First Minister to provide an update on progress and agree forward priorities for action.

Plan 24-30

In recognising there is a lot of positive work underway that is making a difference to the lives of children and families and this must be celebrated and built on, significant efforts are required to ensure that Scotland does keep The Promise by 2030.

To help achieve this, there is a recognised need for a single, shared route map in place across all organisations that have a role to play. The route map must make clear where responsibility lies for all aspects of Scotland’s ‘care system’, including but not limited to, its legislation, decision making, investment, culture and service delivery. Plan 24-30 maps the milestones, timelines, roles and responsibilities required to keep The Promise, including a mid-point review of progress.

Ultimately, the route map must show how organisations across Scotland will meet the responsibility they have to children and families. It must also be dynamic and able to flex and change as the world changes, making sure the focus stays on doing what is needed to make the changes demanded.

This task is being led by the Independent Strategic Advisor for The Promise and will lay out ‘HOW’ Scotland will do this, and by ‘WHO’.

Plan 24-30 was be launched in June 2024.

Part 1 Progress on our Journey to Change

We are determined to drive forward the transformational change that is required to keep The Promise and make Scotland the best place in the world to grow up, where all children are loved, safe, respected and realise their full potential.

The Independent Care Review told Scotland what needs to change in order to improve the lives and experiences of our children, young people, adults and families with care experience. Progress is being made both at a national and a local level and the continued commitment across Scottish Government and all stakeholders is driving forward change in a way that many similar reviews have not succeeded to do.

In identifying what needs to change, The Promise does however stop short of stating how to make the change required. In response, in March 2022 the Scottish Government set out its strategic intent through a comprehensive Promise Implementation Plan. This plan presents a broad range of actions and commitments that we will take by 2030 and it details how we must lead from the front through policy, delivery and investment. An approach that requires a combination of targeted person centred support, place based activity and universal service provision.

This strength of commitment to deliver change is unwavering. It carries the priority of the First Minister and is directly demonstrated in the appointment, in April 2023, of a dedicated Minister for Children, Young People and The Promise, Natalie Don-Innes; and in autumn 2023 the establishment of a dedicated Cabinet Sub-Committee on The Promise.

In June 2024, Fiona Duncan, Scotland’s Independent Strategic Advisor for The Promise, published Plan 24-30. In setting the route for the next six years this builds on what has already happened and ensure a continuity in the actions we must all take as a nation. It provides a single shared plan that meets the needs and aspirations of the care community, children, and families, and give confidence it is entirely deliverable. In so doing it sets a common understanding of how change will be measured and the milestones to make it possible to keep track of Scotland’s progress against delivery.

This update document from The Scottish Government provides review of the actions and commitments that we have said we will deliver. It complements and informs Plan 24-30 and points forward to the actions that will continue to be pushed and prioritised nationally to help deliver the change that keeping The Promise demands.

Realising Our Vision For Change

By 2030 we will have reduced the number of children in care and those in care will report a positive care experience

The vision for the future is clear. By 2030 we will have reduced the number of children in care and those in care will report a positive care experience. To get there we must continue to build the network of whole family support to help keep more families together, and we must focus our actions to reduce the number of children and young people who cannot safely be cared for at home, including those on compulsory measures of supervision.

For the children and young people who are in care, they will have a good loving childhood surrounded by compassion and consistency.

This will require a consistency of approach, values and understanding across Scotland’s workforce in order to ensure the right support is available for those who need, and those who provide care. Achieving this will mean that every family that needs support gets the right support at the right time, from pre-birth, and that by working together, we fulfil children’s rights to be raised safely in their own families.

Success will also require us to shift the balance of our spend from chronic intervention to prevention. Meaning that families that need help get it early, before crisis point. Ultimately this will see a reduction in care experienced related poor outcomes including poverty, homelessness, substance misuse, poor health including mental health, vaccine-preventable infectious diseases, offending, school exclusion, educational attainment, and low employability.

The Public Protection system is an important part of delivering this vision. ‘Public Protection’ is a term used to describe the many different approaches used to prevent harm to the public, and can include child protection, adult support and protection, offender management, violence against women and girls, support for problematic use of alcohol and drugs, and suicide prevention. It requires to be understood as part of a continuum of services and support which spans prevention and early intervention, through to action which addresses high levels of risk or wellbeing need.

Individuals and families may need support from several parts of the Public Protection system. In line with the work of The Promise we are committed to working with our partners to deliver a more coherent and consistent approach to ensure the best possible outcomes for individuals, families and the workforce that supports them.

There is real energy for change across the system.

We know that Scotland has seen a reduction in the number of children and young people in care since the Independent Care Review was concluded. In 2016, there were just under fifteen and a half thousand looked after children and young people in Scotland. In 2020, the year The Promise was made, there were around fourteen and a half thousand looked after children and young people in Scotland, and the latest figures from July 2023 show that in the 3 years since then this has reduced further to around twelve thousand two hundred.

There may of course be many reasons for this change. We know and we understand that numbers alone do not tell the whole story. However, this does demonstrate that there is a shift in how the care system in Scotland is working and that the supports that are available to children, young people and families are pivoting toward a new way of working.

This is represented in changes in organisational structures; increased training and understanding among the workforce; altered approach to delivering business; and an increased level of consciousness to corporate parenting responsibilities. In short, an acceptance of responsibility for the welfare and the needs of our care experienced community.

We remain confident that the national ambition that has resulted from the Independent Care Review can be realised. This energy must continue to build and we must support it to do so in order to introduce the required shift from reaction to prevention.

Our ambition is clear, where children are safe in their families and feel loved they must stay together. To achieve this families must be given support to nurture that love and overcome the difficulties which get in the way. In recognising that the support required for every child may be different and that the journey may not be linear, the Scottish Government, The Promise Scotland and other partners assume that staying with family will include at home with parents and may at key stages and for whatever reason, be in kinship care with adults with whom they already have a healthy, enduring relationship and who are already within their own family (or close friends) network.

To continue to work towards this the pace of change must continue to build and the momentum must be continued through our activities:

• To keep families together through whole family support and support for our children, young people and adults with care experience
• To renew our efforts to support pre-birth to three, recognising that this is a critical window to support families and to support early child development
• To ensure a good childhood for our children and young people
• To create the right scaffolding of help, support and accountability to be ready and responsive when it is required, and
• To build capacity in our workforce and our systems to support the change required to improve the lives of our children, young people and families.

The Journey To Change And Improvement

The publication of The Promise challenged public services to create the conditions to reform the ‘care system’, including the scaffolding and structures that make up the system itself.

Before any transformational change can take place, a comprehensive understanding of current systems is needed. It is not possible to simply build a new system without first paying attention to what is already there. Whilst some actions and changes can be considered relatively straightforward and implemented quickly, others require consultation, collaboration, and testing to have any chance of lasting sustainability at a national level.

Following publication of The Promise Implementation Plan in March 2022, the Scottish Government has taken a structured approach to the work required to help direct the policies and actions across 26 Directorates of Government. This is a major change programme for Scotland and it is essential that it is connected and in step with other major change programmes relating to Tackling Child Poverty, Education, Justice and Health.

To achieve this the Scottish Government has adopted a quality improvement approach to bring focus to areas that will have the greatest impact on:

• children, young people and families in care
• children, young people and families on the edges of care,
• young people transitioning out of the care system and
• adults with care experience

This Diagram illustrates Scottish Government’s theory of change for how we will Keep The Promise. At the centre, is the core vision of The Promise: ‘By 2030 we will have reduced the number of children in care and those in care report a positive care experience’. Around it are the key 5 aims which are essential to realising this vision:

1. A good childhood: All children who have been removed from their family of origin and live in and around the care system will have a good loving childhood.

2. Supporting those who care: There will be consistency of approach, values and understanding across Scotland's workforce.

3. Planning and investment: will be nationally coordinated to ensure that children and families get what they need.

4. Building capacity: The care system will facilitate and uphold children's rights.

5. Whole family support: Every family that needs support gets the right support at the right time to fulfil children's right to be raised safely in their own families, for as long as needed.

This approach has strengthened the connections (national and local) to accelerate improvement and apply a method that supports systematic change, bringing evidence into practice reliably and consistently.

This systematic approach is underpinned by the Quality Improvement Journey^[1]. This offers a method that can be followed at any level – from macro (large, national approaches) to the micro (local team) level. Using this method, we have developed a high level Theory of Change, which maps and allows us to continually test how we deliver the changes required to achieve the objectives of The Promise.

The Theory of Change is aligned to The Promise Scotland’s Plan 21-24 and progress against all of the actions and commitments are mapped against this Theory of Change. The full detail of this progress is set out in Part 7.

A Person and A Family Centred Approach To Change

Our approach to supporting improved outcomes for children and young people with care experience is underpinned by a commitment to protecting and upholding children’s rights. This commitment was strengthened by the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child (Incorporation) (Scotland) Act 2024. Reconsidered by the Scottish Parliament in December 2023 the Bill was approved unanimously, and all provisions included within the Act commenced in July 2024. This will bring into reality an increased level of recognition and protection of children’s rights beyond the level elsewhere in the UK.

This legislative position strengthens our national commitment to Getting it right for every child (GIRFEC) in offering the right help at the right time, to each and every child and young person in Scotland to reach their full potential. It is essential that we continue to adopt a person centred approach to our activities and the system must continue to work in an adaptable way that reflects the difference in need and mould to the needs of the individual and the family.

In October 2023 we published the GIRFEC Child’s Plan Practice Statement to communicate our current policy intention regarding the roles and responsibilities of practitioners involved with the development and monitoring of the non-statutory GIRFEC Child’s Plan. This accompanies the suite of refreshed GIRFEC practice guidance produced in 2022. The GIRFEC guidance underpins our approaches to holistic family support and contributes to the shared aims and wellbeing outcomes of the Children, Young People and Families Outcome Framework. The GIRFEC multi-agency approach provides a framework to plan care and support for children, young people and families across a range of services to help families meet their individual needs, to thrive and to stay together.

This approach to family support is key to the successful delivery of The Promise. Building on existing adult best practice and learning from our approach to every child, Getting it right for everyone (GIRFE) is a multi-agency approach to health and social care support and services from young adulthood to end of life care. It will form the future practice model of all health and social care professionals and shape the design and delivery of services, ensuring that people’s needs are met.

GIRFE pathfinders and partners are committed to co-designing GIRFE with people with lived experience across Scotland. This includes engagement with people with lived experience – focusing on people in addiction services, people in prisons, people registered at deep end GP Practices, and young people in transition from GIRFEC to GIRFE and/or families with complex needs.

GIRFE pathfinders and partners are currently testing implementation of the GIRFE ‘Team Around The Person’ toolkit, which has been co-designed with people with lived experience across Scotland. Once further testing is complete, the toolkit will be published to allow wider implementation across Scotland.

The Scottish Government wants to ensure that families are able to access the help they need, where and when they need it. In July 2022, our National Framework Principles of Holistic Whole Family Support was published, to promote consistent standards of practice across Scotland which will help to deliver improved outcomes for children, young people and families.

Family support defines a range of services to help families meet their individual needs, to thrive and to stay together and this ambition is being further realised through our investment in Whole Family Wellbeing. This investment is helping Childrens Services Planning Partnerships implement whole system transformational change. Funding is focussed on the system changes required to shift investment towards early intervention and prevention activities, to ensure families can access support before they reach crisis point. Further detail of our approach to Whole Family Wellbeing is set out in Part 4.

The future structure and approach to children’s services across Scotland is central to how we ensure a consistency in provision and response.

To inform this the Centre for Excellence for Children’s Care and Protection (CELCIS) were commissioned to carry out independent research to help us answer the question of ‘What is needed to ensure that children, young people and families get the help they need, when they need it?'

The research is clear about the challenges facing children, young people and families and those supporting them across Scotland. It has provided considerable insight into care systems both at home and internationally and a solid evidence base is offered for improvement that can be made without, or alongside, structural changes. A number of themes for improvement have been identified from the research findings and an exercise is underway to identify and map any ongoing work which will address these. Further detail of the CELCIS research findings and the developing Children's Services Reform Improvement Work Plan are set out in Part 2.

Working Together to Introduce Change

The work that is underway, is being driven through national and local implementation. The Verity House Agreement signed in June 2023, sets out the way that national and local government will work together to approach shared priorities and how we will engage. This agreement to shared priorities, particularly in relation to tackling poverty and sustainable public services, provides the platform for a strengthened relationship for service delivery.

Joint working to keep The Promise is carried through regular engagement between the Minister for Children, Young People and The Promise and the COSLA spokesperson for Children and Young People.

If Scotland is to be the best place in the world to grow up, we need our public services to work for, and with children, young people, and their families. The stabilisation of family circumstances through income maximisation, employability and effective whole family support can provide a platform. In turn it can help us keep more children at home.

In March 2022, ‘Best Start, Bright Futures’ was published. This sets out how we will work together to deliver on Scotland's national mission to tackle child poverty. We know that poverty negatively impacts on the wellbeing of families, with the negative effects intensifying the more persistent and deep their experience. Tackling poverty will help us to support better outcomes for parents and carers and, vitally, to make a life-long difference for children and young people.

The Scottish Government is committed to reforming our public services. We know that if we want to continue to work with our communities to build better lives for everyone in Scotland, we have to change the way we deliver services. We want people’s experience of services to be efficient, high quality, and effective for all.

Where people are at risk, we want all services to be able to identify this early, to build relationships and understand needs, and work together in partnership, with a clear understanding of the full range of resources in a community, to meet those needs. This relational, preventative, place-based way of delivering services is happening across Scotland and we want it to be available to all people who need it.

This is vital to maintaining our ability to help people in the future. Only by doing this can we improve outcomes in our communities; reduce the inequalities that we know some people still face; and ensure the future sustainability of our services by moving our focus to prevention and support, and away from helping people out of crisis.

The Promise put these reform principles into action. There is growing practical evidence of earlier intervention, holistic family support, and services working together to enable young people and their families to thrive in their terms leading to direct and measurable benefits. As we continue to build up our understanding of the change in young people's lives, this evidence will grow.

Health and Social Care Reform

The Cabinet Secretary for Health and Social Care set out a new a vision for health and social care services in Scotland in June 2024, to address these challenges and give focus to our reform work. Our vision is to ‘enable people to live longer, healthier and more fulfilling lives.’ This is supported by four key areas of work: improving population health, a focus on prevention and early intervention, providing quality services, and maximising access, all underpinned by a person-centred approach.

We know that by improving the health of current and prospective caregivers, reform in health and social care at large can contribute to a reduction in number of children in care. Furthermore, and improvement in the health and wellbeing of children and young people.

Work is already underway and being coordinated through the Care and Wellbeing Portfolio to progress reforms to ensure long term sustainability, reduce health inequalities, deliver services closer to home, further harness the benefits of digital technology, and improve population health outcomes in Scotland. Our approach to reform spans three overlapping horizons. Firstly, and a key priority in the short term, we must ensure that our services are delivered in a way that optimises current arrangements. Secondly and over the medium term, we need to begin to transform how we work and begin to shift the balance of care closer to

people’s homes and drive forward more proactive approaches. In the longer term. we need to fundamentally change how we think about the delivery of health and care, driving investment in prevention and early intervention.

And we are developing a Population Health Framework, to take a cross-government and cross-sector approach to improve the key building blocks of health including: employment, housing, education and skills, economic stability and complemented with the promotion of positive health behaviours and appropriate healthcare. The Framework in being developed in collaboration with key partners, including COSLA and NHS Scotland leaders.’

Supporting The Workforce

To ensure that we create a Scotland where all children feel loved, respected, listened to, and heard, in decisions that affect them, we must develop and invest in the workforce. Attracting and retaining the people with the right skills, as well as developing the workforce in their roles and raising the status of the children’s social care and social work professions, remain a key focus for the Scottish Government.

The Scottish Government acknowledges the significant pressures that the workforce continues to face and is committed to taking immediate action to address these challenges and, irrespective of profession or sector, to support the delivery of high quality services underpinned by trusting relationships, trauma informed practice and protecting children’s rights.

We will work with partners to ensure the workforce feel valued, and have the right skills to deliver services that contribute to achieving positive outcomes for children, young people and their families. We will aim to improve the evidence base for workforce planning for children’s services, as well as strengthen and diversify the higher and further education, and apprenticeship offers for careers in children’s services.

To address current recruitment and retention challenges, we will work to ensure that Fair Work principles are applied consistently across the children’s services landscape. As part of this collaborative approach, the Children and Families National Leadership Group is bringing together senior leaders from national and local government, children’s social work services, health, learning, justice, the third sector and other partners.

Working with key stakeholders, we are aiming to ensure an effective voice of the workforce across the care sector. This includes:

• a new national framework for social care and social work has been initially agreed by Scottish Ministers and COSLA Leaders as part of ongoing discussions on the National Care Service (Scotland) Bill, and
• a joint Workforce Improvement Plan with COSLA and key stakeholders (to be published in autumn 2024) which seeks to address the recruitment and retention challenges facing the Social Work profession which include, implementing workforce improvements and refining social work vacancy data to enhance increased accuracy in planning for the demands of the future workforce.

Through this work the Scottish Government continues to work collaboratively with stakeholders including COSLA, Social Work Scotland, Scottish Association of Social Workers (SASW), Unison, and Scottish Social Services Council (SSSC) to ensure the direction of travel is influenced and informed by the voices of social work and other key stakeholders.

We are developing a refreshed Common Core framework of essential knowledge and values for everyone who provides support to children, from birth to young adulthood, and their families. The original ‘Common Core of Skills, Knowledge and Understanding and Values for the “Children’s Workforce” in Scotland’ (the Common Core) was introduced in 2012 to describe the knowledge, skills, understanding and values which should be the foundation characteristics of all those working with children and young people in Scotland. This refreshed framework focuses on the core values and learning required to deliver the Promise and provide holistic family support and rights-based practice in accordance with UNCRC and GIRFEC principles.

The National Trauma Transformation Programme (previously called the National Trauma Training Programme) provides accessible, evidence-based trauma training resources and support for implementation. Work continues with COSLA, the Improvement Service, Resilience Learning Partnership, and NHS National Education Scotland to support organisations to develop and implement trauma-informed approaches to their workforces and via their services.

The Trauma Responsive Social Work Services (TRSWS) Programme workplan has been agreed to ensure Scotland’s social work services are able to recognise where people are affected by trauma, and respond in ways which reduce risks of retraumatising and supports recovery. Delivery of the programme commenced in October 2023, initially with four areas, and work is taking place across children’s, justice and adult social work services and workforce. Trauma Skilled Practice training and follow up support has been delivered to over 200 newly qualified and early career social workers. Learning from early implementation sites will help inform scheduling, with further areas across Scotland to be supported from 2024 until December 2026.

Education Scotland in collaboration with NHS Education Service have developed the Keeping Trauma in Mind professional learning programme (KTiM). This programme complements the NTTP and includes practical examples of what trauma-informed and trauma-responsive practice looks like in an educational setting. The programme is offered online nationally and as bespoke in-person sessions for individual local authorities.

We continue to work with partners to support the workforce to develop a wider trauma-informed approach to the provision of care within residential child care settings. In alignment with the aspirations of The Promise, stakeholders within the residential sector across Scotland have successfully engaged in Promise Partnership

funded pilot projects which focus on the development of relationship based and reflective practice.

We continue to rollout 'Transforming Connections', a tailored ‘Trauma-Skilled’ level training and coaching package, to people who work alongside children and young people with care experience in priority sectors of the Children and Families workforce in Scotland, including school nurses, health visitors, secure and residential care providers and Children’s Hearings Scotland.

In addition, the development of trauma training and resources to support alternative caregivers (adoptive parents, kinship and foster carers) provide trauma-informed care for their children and young people is being considered as part of the long term delivery plan for the NTTP, with next steps currently being identified.

Following a review in May 2024, revised Scottish Social Services Council (SSSC) codes of practice were launched to ensure consistency with the skills and practice requirements of The Promise focused on trauma-informed family support.

The Advanced Social Work Practice Framework, due to be launched in spring 2025, will set out the structures which support social workers to progress through different career phases and describe a cohesive and supportive series of academic, learning and development, and work based opportunities to support the workforce, both now and in the future. The framework is an opportunity to influence a culture which promotes, acknowledges and values evidence based practice and to recognise the role experienced practitioners can play in using their knowledge and expertise to support the future workforce. Following implementation of the framework, consideration will be given to developing a framework for paraprofessionals, and as part of work to widen entry routes into the profession more broadly, we are scoping the opportunity to introduce a Graduate Apprenticeship for social work.

The National Care Service creates an opportunity to further our aspirations and support achievement of the strategic aims for delivering The Promise, which may, in turn, result in improvements in children’s services. It will empower us to strike the right balance between national consistency, regional strategic planning and local delivery, and present further opportunities to set standards of care, reduce variation in thresholds for and quality of services, improve accountability, and enhance alignment across primary care, community health, social care, social work, children’s and social justice services.

A National Social Work Agency (NSWA) will provide professional leadership and have national oversight of the social work profession – driving improvements in social work education, training and development, national workforce planning, improvement approaches and providing effective support for implementation of policy in local systems. It will drive improvements in social work, for students through to senior leaders, across public, third and independent sectors.

Our aim is a skilled, supported and sustainable workforce that provides high quality person-led support underpinned by rights-based approaches to enable better, more consistent outcomes for people who need social work.

A Children’s Rights Skills and Knowledge Framework is being developed to support public authorities to embed children’s rights in public services.

The Framework will provide a single point to access new and existing resources and training on children’s rights and taking a children’s human rights approach. It will be a flexible and adaptable resource that can be used across a wide range of sectors, giving users an enhanced understanding of how they can uphold children’s rights.

We have worked closely with stakeholders to support development of the framework. This included public authorities, and two groups of co-production partners: a Children and Families Panel, and a Professionals Panel.

A training plan will accompany the Framework to support staff in public authorities who are responsible for developing and delivering training. It will support them to plan and deliver appropriate training for different staff members on children’s rights and taking a children’s human rights approach.

The Framework and Training Plan, which will launch in summer 2024, will support public authorities to experience the value of using a children’s human rights approach and how this contributes to other local and national strategic priorities, aiding a transformation in service design and delivery.

Further detail of these commitments, progress so far, and next steps is set out in Part 2, Part 3, and Part 7.

Monitoring & Reporting Change

Progress is being made across several key areas in our journey towards keeping The Promise. The latest statistics tell us about where we have come from since the announcement of the independent care review in 2016, through to when The Promise was made in 2020, and what latest available data can tell us about where we are now.

While national level statistics cannot be used in isolation to determine whether the experiences of Scotland's looked after children and young people are improving, they can help to guide our understanding of where progress is being made, and what areas warrant further attention.

The national picture through statistics: where have we come from, and where are we now?

Our baseline for understanding how Scotland is changing as we work to Keep The Promise begins in 2016, when the independent care view was launched. By looking at the direction of change between 2016 and 2020, we get an understanding of the direction of travel within the system in the years leading up to the Promise being made. This understanding of where we have come from helps us to contextualise the journey since 2020 in our ambition to Keep The Promise, and where we are now.

Child protection

Where have we come from?

The rate and number of children on the child protection register fell very slightly in the 5 years up to 2020. For every 1,000 0-17 year olds in Scotland, 3.0 were on the child protection register in 2016. This fell to 2.9 in 2020. The total number of children on the child protection register also fell by 2.7% between 2016 and 2020, from 2,715 to 2,641.

Over this same period, fewer children also joined the child protection register each year, with the number of yearly registrations also falling over this period by 7.2%. In each of these years, the vast majority (85% – 87%) of children who were de-registered had been on the register for less than a year.

Where are we now?

The number of children on the child protection register fell much more quickly between 2020 and 2023. On 31st July 2023 was 20.7% lower than on the same day in 2020, at 2,094 (down from 2,641). This has meant a reduction in the rate per 1,000 children on the child protection register from 2.9 to 2.3 over the same period.

A similar trend has been seen in the number of children joining the register each year – the number of yearly registrations has fallen each year since 2020, and was 18.6% lower in 2023 than in 2020, at 3,231 (down from 3,967).

Around half of the children on the child protection register are under 5, including those registered pre-birth. This was true in both 2020 (50%) and 2023 (47%).

Progress on our commitment to support local areas to implement the National Guidance for Child Protection in Scotland is detailed in Part 2 of this report.

Looked after children

Where have we come from?

The rate of children who were looked after on 31st July 2016 was 14.8 per 1,000 and by 2020 this had fallen to 14.1. The overall number of looked after children also fell in the 5 years up to 2020, from 15,317 to 14,458.

The relative proportions of children in different placement types saw very little movement, with the proportion of children placed in the community (90%) and those placed in residential accommodation (10%) remaining the same across the whole 5-year period.

Where are we now?

Between 2020 and 2023 the number of children and young people who were statutorily identified as ‘looked after children’ has reduced by 15.6%. While this reduction is in line with the overall ambition of The Promise to reduce the number of children and young people needing to enter care, more context is needed to understand whether this reduction is indicative of positive change.

Since 2020, the proportion of looked after children who are living at home with their parents has fallen by 5 percentage points from one in four, to one in five. We know that to keep The Promise, families need to be supported to stay together, but that there are certain circumstances where it is not possible for children to live with their parent(s). Over the same period, there has also been a 4 percentage point increase in the proportion of children being placed with friends or relatives in kinship care. This may be an indication that in cases where it is deemed safest for children to live away from their parents for a period, placements which minimise disruption by keeping children with a caregiver already known to them are being prioritised.

Over the last 10 years, there have been decreases in the number of children looked after for short periods of time. Of all children who ceased being looked after in 2020, 8% had been looked after for 6 weeks or less, and by 2023 this had fallen to 5%. This meant a decrease from 264 to 165 children being looked after in short-term placements. A similar trend can also be seen for children whose episodes in care lasted between 6 weeks and 6 months. While we are unable to say definitively, when looking at these figures alongside the decreasing overall numbers of looked after children, this could suggest that preventative work within communities is meaning that children who in previous years would have needed a short spell of care, are now being supported without becoming formally looked after.

We are seeing fewer of the very youngest children entering care each year – in 2013, 1,737 children aged under 4 entered care, making up 39% of all children who entered care during the year. By 2020, this had fallen to 1,346 under 4s which was still 39% of the total amount. The latest statistics from 2023 show that this reduction has continued, with the number of under 4s entering care during the year falling to 966, making up 32% of all children who entered care during the year. This could be an indication that early years prevention work is generating positive change in preventing some of the youngest children from entering care.

Early Child Development

Children in the care system are more likely to have concerns about their development from an early age. At the 13-15 month Child Health Review, one third of looked after children already have concerns. This rises to nearly 40% at the later 27-30 month reviews, which was more than twice the rate for non-looked after children (18%). The gap between the proportion of looked after children and non-looked after children with a developmental concern at the 27-30 month review was the highest on record in 2022/23, at 22 percentage points. This latest report also found that the deprivation gradient between those living in the most deprived fifth of areas and least deprived fifth of areas was the highest it had been on record.

Secure care and prisons

Where have we come from?

In 2016, there were 256 admissions to secure care throughout the year. By 2020, this figure had fallen by 24.2% to 194 admissions throughout the year.

The number of residents in secure care accommodation on average each day was 85 throughout 2016. This figure was 3.5% lower in 2020, at 82 residents on average each day.

Where are we now?

During 2022-23, there were an average of 59 children in secure care accommodation – this was 28% lower than it was in 2020.

Over a third of young people in secure care in Scotland in 2023 were from outwith Scotland. As part of a wider trend ongoing since 2014, the proportion of children from outwith Scotland in secure care rose from 34% to 45% between 2020 and 2022. However, on average in 2023, this figure has fallen back down to 37%.

According to the latest Prison Population Statistics the average daily number of young people aged 16 & 17 fell by 71% between 2019-20 and 2022-23 to an average daily population of 8.8. Regulations to end the detention of under 18s in young offenders institutions came into force on 28 August 2024. Under 18s will now be detained in alternative settings, such as secure accommodation. Those under 18s who were detained in a YOI before 28 August have now safely transitioned to new settings. Further updates on how we are working to support children and young people involved in the justice system are set out in Part 7 of this report.

Educational Outcomes

Achievement of Curriculum for Excellence levels (ACEL):

Data on ACEL outcomes for looked after children is available from 2019 onwards, however was not collected during the 2020 school year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The proportion of looked-after pupils achieving the level relevant to their stage fell between 2019 and 2021, and have been increasing across all subjects each year since 2021. Levels have not yet returned to where they were pre-pandemic.

Attainment and post-school destinations

The proportion of pupils who were looked after during their final year at school that went on to a positive destination 9 months after leaving rose by 11 percentage points in the 4 years up to 2020, from 65% to 75%. In particular, the proportion going on to further education rose by 17 percentage points, and the proportion who were unemployed but seeking employment fell by 12 percentage points.

Education attainment for leavers looked after during their last year at school rose at all levels between the 2015/16 and 2019/20 school years, with the proportion of children achieving:

• 1 or more qualification at SCQF level 3 or higher up by 3 percentage points, to 87%
• 1 or more qualification at SCQF level 4 or higher up by 2 percentage points, to 72%
• 1 or more qualification at SCQF level 5 or higher up by 4 percentage points, to 38%
• 1 or more qualification at SCQF level 6 or higher up by 3 percentage points, to 14%
• 1 or more qualification at SCQF level 7 or higher up by 1 percentage points, to 2%

The gap between attainment levels for pupils looked after within their final year and all pupils also shrank during the 4 years up to 2020, apart from for young people obtaining at least one qualification at SCQF level 7 or higher, where the gap between leavers looked after within their last year and all children grew by 3 percentage points from 18 to 21. The largest reduction in the gap between leavers looked after within their last year and all children was for those who achieved at least one qualification at SCQF level 5 or higher, where the gap fell by 4 percentage points from 52 to 48.

Where are we now?

Between 2022 and 2023, the proportion of looked after school leavers achieving at least one qualification at SCQF level 3, 4 5 or 6 fell. At SCQF levels 3, 4 and 5, the gap between the proportion of looked after leavers achieving at least one qualification compared to all pupils also widened. It is important to note however that when comparing the latest figures to the last data point before the COVID-19 pandemic (2019), attainment has risen, and the attainment gap has narrowed, at all levels.

In 2023, 42.3% of leavers who were looked after within their final year achieved 1 qualification at SCQF level 5 of higher compared to 84.8% of all leavers. Since 2020, the proportion of all school leavers achieving at least one qualification at SCQF level 5 has fallen by 0.9 percentage points, whereas for pupils who were looking after during their final year of school, this has risen by 4.2 percentage points.

The gap between looked after leavers and all children has fallen by 5 percentage points since 2020, but still stands at 43 percentage points.

Exclusions

Exclusions data is gathered every other year, with the most recent update coming from the 2022/23 school year. The number of exclusions per 1,000 pupils for all children and those who were looked after within the year nearly halved between 2018/19 and 2020/21, going from 152 to 78, and then rose again in 2022/23 to 97.

It is unclear how much of this drop during the 2020/21 school year was caused by school closures due to the COVID-19 pandemic, however large reductions were also observed across all pupils at all stages. In 2022/23, the rate of exclusions for children looked after within the year was still 36% lower than the last year that was not affected by COVID_19 related school closures. In 2022/23, the rate of exclusions per 1,000 pupils was 5.7 times higher for looked after pupils than all pupils, despite a huge decrease in the gap in rates between all children and those looked after within the year since 2009/10.

The rate of children who experience an exclusion within the year, as opposed to the number of overall exclusions, is also just over 3 times higher for children looked after within the year, meaning children who are looked after within the year are more likely to be excluded multiple times than all children.

Further updates on how we are working to support the care experienced community in their access to education are set out in Part 7 of this report.

While progress towards keeping The Promise cannot be measured entirely through quantitative statistics, these help us to understand where the picture appears to be improving, and where future attention needs to be directed. Our ambitions for how we plan to monitor progress towards keeping The Promise, working jointly with The Promise Scotland and COSLA, are set out in Part 5.

In order to keep The Promise, Scottish Government has committed to making changes that should help Scotland to achieve these positive outcomes for children, young people and families. Progress against these commitments is set out in Part 2.