Prisoners (Early Release) (Scotland) Bill: Fairer Scotland Duty impact assessment

1. Summary of aims and expected outcomes of strategy, proposal, programme or policy.

The Prisoners (Early Release) (Scotland) Bill (“the Bill”) will change the point of release from prison for some people serving short-term sentences of less than four years. Currently most people serving short-term sentences are released unconditionally after serving half (50%) of their sentence in either prison custody (including Youth Offender Institutes) or secure accommodation. This Bill will change the point of release for most short-term prisoners to following two fifths (40%) of the sentence. This change will not apply to all prisoners. Those serving sentence for domestic abuse or sexual offences, in part or in whole, will continue to be released once they have served half (50%) of their sentence.

The change to release point will apply to those serving a short-term sentence when the legislation comes into force and those sentenced to short-term sentences in the future. This means the change to release point will apply to people currently serving between 40-50% of their sentence when the Bill comes into effect. Those who become immediately eligible for release on commencement of the legislation will be released in tranches.

The Bill also provides for a subordinate legislation-making power to amend the point at which the Scottish Ministers must release short-term and long-term prisoners to either another proportion of the sentence or a particular period of time. In relation to short-term prisoners only, the power would also allow different provision to be made for different purposes. In relation to long-term prisoners, the power only permits Scottish Ministers to amend the point of release though different provision can be made based on when such individuals were imprisoned. The Bill also provides for ancillary and commencement powers.

The change to release point for some short-term prisoners will have a direct or indirect impact on many people who come into contact with the criminal justice system, including those serving short-term custodial sentences, their families, victims of crime, the wider communities to which people will be released, Scottish Prison Service (SPS) staff and those working within prisons, as well as staff delivering post-release support, within public bodies and the third sector. The aim of bringing forward the point of release for some short-term prisoners is to achieve both an immediate and sustained reduction in the prison population as part of a range of actions designed to ensure the prison service functions effectively, can accommodate those who pose the greatest risk of harm, and can support rehabilitation, in order to reduce reoffending and protect victims and public safety. A reduction in the prison population will increase the available operational capacity within the prison system, enabling SPS to better support those remaining in their care.

Based on prison population projections^[1], it is estimated that around 5% of the sentenced prison population will be immediately eligible for release if the measures were to come into effect in January 2025. This is estimated to account for approximately 260-390 people (based on the projected population in January 2025). Over time it is anticipated that this initial reduction would be sustained, meaning that the sentenced prison population would be approximately 260-390 lower than it otherwise would have been, assuming that the make-up of the prison population remains broadly similar in terms of sentence type and duration.

The scope of this assessment is to consider the potential impact on socio-economic disadvantage and inequalities of outcomes of bringing forward the point of release for some short-term prisoners from the half-way point (50%) of their sentence to after having served two-fifths (40%) of their sentence. This equates to a maximum of approximately 21 weeks difference between the current and proposed release point. This is not an assessment of the impact of imprisonment or release more generally. In addition, the scope of this assessment does not cover the potential impact across protected characteristics of the subordinate legislation-making powers. Should the powers be used at a later stage to further change the point of release for short-term prisoners, or to make a change to the release point for long-term prisoners, then a new Fairer Scotland Duty assessment based on the relevant change would be required to assess the potential impact on socio-economic disadvantage and inequalities of outcome.