COVID-19 impact on Scotland’s economy

The economic impact of the efforts to tackle the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic could see Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fall by around a third, according to a report by the Chief Economist.

The latest State of the Economy report, published by the Scottish Government’s Chief Economist Gary Gillespie, presents analysis showing that GDP in Scotland could fall by around 33% during the current period of social distancing, similar to estimates from UK and international bodies such as the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

Alongside a summary of latest economic developments, the report includes Scottish Government analysis of:

• channels through which COVID-19 is impacting Scotland’s economy;
• short term impact of social distancing on GDP and the labour market;
• exposure of different sectors to COVID-19 risks;
• medium term path of the economic recovery.

Economy Secretary Fiona Hyslop said:

“Our response to COVID-19 is saving lives, but I am deeply aware that the pandemic is having an economic effect that is already being felt across Scotland.

“The Scottish Government is doing everything we can to support businesses at this very difficult time.

“We want Scotland to recover as quickly as possible from this outbreak, and that includes rebuilding our economy as quickly as is safely possible.

“None of us should be under any illusions about the scale of economic recovery and, as we have said before, no government will have all of those answers.

“That is why we have set up an independent advisory group to provide expert economic advice and this will be crucial to help us deal with the challenge of rebuilding our economy.”

Background:

Read the State of the Economy report.