GDP Quarterly National Accounts for 2020 Quarter 1

Scotland’s GDP is confirmed to have fallen by 2.5% during the first quarter of 2020, according to statistics announced today by the Chief Statistician. The change in the latest quarter has not been revised from the first estimate published on 17 June.

During the first quarter, the updated figures show that output in the services sector fell by 2.4%, output in the production sector fell by 2.9%, and output in the construction sector fell by 3.6% compared to 2019 quarter 4. These results include the initial direct impacts of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, including the start of the lockdown period in March, but do not include the large fall which has been reported in monthly statistics for April.

The GDP Quarterly National Accounts publication includes the second estimate of growth for the October to December period. This uses data which has been released since the first estimate was published. The Quarterly National Accounts also includes a range of other statistics which are used for economic analysis, forecasting and modelling.

Background

The full statistical publication and data.

The Scottish Government has developed new faster economic statistics which help to track the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy. Experimental monthly GDP estimates up to May 2020.

Change in gross domestic product (GDP) is the main indicator of economic growth. All results are seasonally adjusted and presented in real terms (adjusted to remove inflation). GDP growth in this publication relates to Scotland’s onshore economy, which means it does not include the output of offshore oil and gas extraction. Estimates of the cash value of Scotland’s GDP are available excluding and including oil and gas extraction.

Further information on GDP statistics.

These estimates are compiled in line with the Code of Practice for Statistics.