Impact of Brexit on Scottish Trade

Analysis published today by the Office of the Chief Economic Advisor has estimated Brexit trade barriers could impact Scotland’s economy by £4 billion.

This estimated economic cost is from the reduction in trade alone – not counting changes to productivity, investment or migration.

Business Minister Richard Lochhead said the report demonstrated the urgent need to reverse the damage of Brexit to boost living standards and revenue for the NHS.

According to the Trade Modelling Report, Scottish exports could be lower by 7.2% or £3 billion compared to continued EU membership.

The chemical and pharmaceutical sector is estimated to be one of the hardest hit by post-Brexit trade barriers, with an estimated 9.1% reduction in output, followed by the computer and electronics sector with an estimated 7.7% fall. The 4.9% output drop estimated for the agrifood sector represents a loss of £827 million.

Business Minister Richard Lochhead said:

“On the eve of the fifth anniversary of Brexit, these new figures highlight the urgent need to change course to boost the economy and increase public revenue for the NHS.

“This is the latest in a long line of studies highlighting how badly Brexit continues to impact Scotland and should cause the UK Government to consider its approach to economic growth.

“The Scottish Government has been clear that Scotland’s place is in the EU and the huge European single market. But we are also a voice for greater co-operation with the EU right now and we urge the new UK Government to forge a much closer relationship with our fellow Europeans.”  

Background

Scottish Government’s Brexit Trade Modelling Report

The report is the first to specifically analyse the impact of the UK’s post-Brexit trade agreements on Scotland’s economy. It examines the expected effect of actual or potential free trade agreements between the UK and Australia, India, Switzerland and Turkey, as well as the Trade and Cooperation Agreement between the UK and EU. It then compares that with the trade benefits Scotland would have received from continued EU membership.

This report makes estimates based on the impact of trade barriers and does not account for changes in productivity and investment due to Brexit. This means that some of the headline figures differ from those in other reports – such as in modelling by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, which showed that UK GDP could be 5.7% lower – as they look at the overall impact of Brexit on the economy.