Monthly GDP Estimates for January

Scotland’s GDP fell by 2.3% in January, according to statistics announced today by the Chief Statistician.

This is the third consecutive monthly fall in GDP, as restrictions on economic activity were extended to the current lockdown for mainland Scotland. Output remains 8.4% below the pre-pandemic level in February 2020?, and has fallen by a total of 4.1% over the three months since October.

In January 2021 there was growth in the production and construction sectors, but a fall of 3.4% in the services sector. Output fell in most of the services subsectors, with the drop in education activity, as most pupils moved to remote learning, making the largest contribution to the month on month fall.

Output in the production sector increased by 0.8% in January, including 1.9% growth in the manufacturing subsector. Output in the construction sector is estimated to have increased by 0.9%.

Background

The Monthly GDP Estimate for December is available at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/monthly-gdp-january-2021

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the output of the economy in Scotland. These monthly estimates have been developed to help track the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. These are designated as experimental official statistics. This means that they are still in development but have been released to enable their use at an early stage. All results are provisional and subject to relatively high levels of uncertainty.

All results are seasonally adjusted and presented in real terms (adjusted to remove inflation). GDP growth in this publication relates to Scotland’s onshore economy, which means it does not include the output of offshore oil and gas extraction.

Further information on GDP statistics is available at http://www.gov.scot/gdp

These estimates are compiled in line with the Code of Practice for Statistics – more information on the standards of official statistics can be accessed at: https://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/code-of-practice/