Monthly GDP Estimates for June

Scotland’s GDP increased by 5.7% in June, according to statistics announced today by the Chief Statistician. The growth in the latest month follows an increase of 2.3% in May, and falls of 19.2% in April and 5.8% in March.

Although output has increased for the last two months, it remains 17.6% below the level in February, prior to the direct impacts of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

In June there has been a wider pickup in activity than in May, with output increasing in all the main industry sectors, and in most of the sub-sectors within these.

For Quarter 2 as a whole (April to June), GDP is provisionally estimated to have fallen by 19.7% compared to Quarter 1 (January to March), after a fall of 2.5% in Quarter 1. Across the two quarters of contraction, output is estimated to have fallen by a total of 21.7% compared to 2019 Quarter 4.

This is the third release of new monthly GDP statistics for Scotland, and the first to include a provisional estimate for the whole quarter. These statistics have been produced by the Scottish Government to help track the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and are badged as experimental statistics (not national statistics) which means they are still in development.

Background

The Monthly GDP Estimate for June.

The Monthly GDP statistics are designated as experimental official statistics, which means that they are still in development but have been released to enable their use at an early stage. All results are provisional and subject to relatively high levels of uncertainty.

Change in gross domestic product (GDP) is the main indicator of economic growth. All results are seasonally adjusted and presented in real terms (adjusted to remove inflation). GDP growth in this publication relates to Scotland’s onshore economy, which means it does not include the output of offshore oil and gas extraction.

Further information on GDP statistics.

These estimates are compiled in line with the Code of Practice for Statistics – more information on the standards of official statistics.