Monthly GDP estimates for October 2021

Scotland’s onshore GDP grew by 0.2% in October, according to statistics announced today by the Chief Statistician. Output is now 0.4% below the pre-pandemic level in February 2020.

Output in the services sector, which accounts for around three quarters of the economy, grew by 0.3% in October, with increases in eight of the 14 subsectors. Growth in the health and social work subsector made the largest positive contribution to overall growth for the second consecutive month.

Output in the production sector, which accounts for around 16% of the economy, increased by 1% in October. There was growth in three of the four subsectors, including an increase of 5.6% in electricity and gas supply, which offset a fall of 1% in the manufacturing subsector.

Output in the construction sector, which accounts for around 6% of the economy, is estimated to have fallen by 3.4% in October.

In the three months between August and October, GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.7% compared to the previous three month period (May to July). This reflects a slowdown in growth during the fourth quarter so far, relative to the increase of 1% in Quarter 3 (July to September).

Background

The October 2021 GDP estimates.

All results are seasonally adjusted and presented in real terms (adjusted to remove inflation). Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth relates to Scotland’s onshore economy, which means it does not include the output of offshore oil and gas extraction.

GDP measures the output of the economy in Scotland. The monthly estimates have been developed to help track the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. These are designated as experimental official statistics. This means that they are still in development but have been released to enable their use at an early stage. All results are provisional and subject to relatively high levels of uncertainty.

Further information on GDP statistics.

These estimates are compiled in line with the Code of Practice for Statistics.