Monthly GDP estimates for September

Scotland’s onshore GDP grew by 0.4% in September, according to statistics announced today by the Chief Statistician. Output is now 1.1% below the pre-pandemic level in February 2020.

Using the experimental monthly statistics for Quarter 3 as a whole (July to September), GDP is provisionally estimated to have grown by 0.8% compared to the previous quarter. This reflects a slowdown in growth after the increase of 5.6% in Quarter 2 (April-June), as the easing of restrictions after the winter lockdown has less of an impact on the latest results. In quarterly terms output is now 2.1% below the pre-pandemic level in 2019 Quarter 4.

Output in the services sector, which accounts for around three quarters of the economy, grew by 0.5% in September, with increases in nine of the fourteen subsectors. In quarterly terms, services output is provisionally estimated to have increased by 2% compared to Quarter 2.

Output in the production sector, which accounts for around 16% of the economy, contracted by 0.9% in September. There were falls in the two of the four subsectors, which offset growth of 0.3% in the manufacturing subsector. In quarterly terms, production output is provisionally estimated to have fallen by 3.7% compared to Quarter 2.

Output in the construction sector, which accounts for around 6% of the economy is estimated to have grown by 1.9% in September. In quarterly terms, construction output is provisionally estimated to have fallen by 1.5% compared to Quarter 2.

Background

All results are seasonally adjusted and presented in real terms (adjusted to remove inflation). GDP growth relates to Scotland’s onshore economy, which means it does not include the output of offshore oil and gas extraction.

Monthly GDP is an experimental statistics release for Scotland. The September 2021 results.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the output of the economy in Scotland. The monthly estimates have been developed to help track the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. These are designated as experimental official statistics. This means that they are still in development but have been released to enable their use at an early stage. All results are provisional and subject to relatively high levels of uncertainty.

Further information on GDP statistics. These estimates are compiled in line with the Code of Practice for Statistics