Reassuring harvest predicted despite challenges

The Chief Statistician has today released first estimates of the 2023 Scottish harvest.

The figures predict that cereal production will remain in line with the ten-year average despite significant challenges during the year, including high input costs and poor weather condition. Total cereal production is expected to be around 3.0 million tonnes.

Early estimates for yields of barley, oats and oilseed rape are below 2022 levels, but similar to the ten-year averages. The predicted yield for wheat is also below last year’s figure, but is still higher than the ten-year average. However, industry experts reported farmers are noticing varying quality in the spring barley harvest due to poor weather conditions.

The report includes provisional 2023 crop area estimates. On the whole, total area of cereals grown in Scotland are predicted to be close to the 2022 figures, with a decrease in the area of oats grown and an increase in the oilseed rape area.

Background

The full statistical publication is available with supporting data tables at:

https://www.gov.scot/publications/cereal-oilseed-rape-harvest-2023-first-estimates

Estimates are based on first soundings of the 2023 harvest at the end of September. Final results will be released in December after the harvest has finished in Scotland.

Estimates are based on harvest yields given by a panel of experts at a Crop Report Meeting and provisional land use areas from the June Agricultural Census. Final land use areas will be published in the Results of the June Agricultural Census.

National and Official Statistics are produced by professionally independent statistical staff in line with the standards of official statistics in Scotland.