Supply, Use and Input-Output Tables

The Scottish Government Environmental Input-Output model (EIO) is used to estimate the Green House Gas emissions associated with Scottish Government spending plans as set out in the Scottish Draft Budget.

The latest Draft Budget 2017/18 and associated High Level Carbon Assessment were published on December 15th 2016.

For more information about the EIO methodology and to download the GHG Effects Multipliers for 2017/18 please see here.

Scottish I-O Team
December 2016

Published on 20th July 2016, the latest Supply, Use, Input-Output Tables and Multipliers for Scotland relate to 1998 to 2013. These are consistent with the European System of Accounts 2010 (ESA2010) and are available in the downloads section of this site. Where possible the tables are also consistent with UK Blue Book 2015 based Supply and Use Tables and Regional Accounts estimates.

Methodological changes

Imputed Rent

National Accounts include the concepts of ‘actual rental’ and ‘imputed rental of owner occupiers’ in household expenditure estimates. Owner occupiers’ imputed rental is an estimate of the housing services consumed by households who are not actually renting their residence. It is calculated to allow comparisons across countries with very different institutional frameworks for housing. It can be thought of as the value that owner-occupiers effectively pay themselves to rent their own homes. Imputed rental represents around 10% of GDP as measured by expenditure.

This release of Supply and Use Tables includes a new methodology and revised estimates for imputed rental in Scotland. This development is consistent with revised figures in the UK National Accounts published by ONS on and after 30 June 2016, and with the UK Blue Book 2016. Full details of the UK developments have been published by ONS.

This development will not be incorporated into Regional Accounts until December 2016 and so would not normally be picked up by the Supply & Use Tables until summer 2017. To avoid this delay, and to ensure that GDP estimates for Scotland remain comparable with the latest UK results, we have included figures on a similar basis at this time. This results in a significant upward adjustment from the latest Regional Accounts constraints based on Blue Book 2015, as detailed below. Further information on the Scottish imputed rental estimate is available on this Scottish National Accounts Project page.

UK Regional Accounts constraining

As with previous tables, the GVA figures are broadly equivalent to the raw SIC(2007) section level Regional Accounts figures published by the Office for National Statistics, the latest available being published in December 2015. Please note that due to the combining of SIC(2007) 19 'Coke and petroleum' with SIC(2007) 20.14, 20.16 and 20.17 'Petrochemicals' within the Scottish Input-Output Classification system, the Regional Accounts sub-manufacturing category CD 'Coke and refined petroleum products' and CE 'Chemicals and chemical products' must be combined before constraining.

The final Supply and Use table estimates are based upon triangulation of ONS Regional Gross Value Added (income approach) and the full range of data sources available to the Supply Use system; Scottish National Accounts Project, quarterly GDP(O) systems and, after extensive data cleaning, the Annual Business Survey data. These other sources include data received directly from companies and other organisations. The table below highlights where Scottish Use Tables differ from the UK Blue Book 2015 consistent Regional Accounts.

Further information about the move away from full consistency with UK Regional Accounts for Scotland can be seen below under "Publication of Input-Output Tables and Multipliers for Scotland 1998-2007".

Difference between ONS Regional Accounts raw GVA estimates and published Scottish Use table values Published SUT estimate minus Regional Accounts raw estimates (£m)
note - only showing Regional Accounts categories where changes have been made

A: Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Large upward revisions in  Regional Accounts data in all years not seen in Scottish Government Agriculture Output, Input and Income Statistics. Following advice from Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services and the UK Department for Environment Food & Rural Affairs the Supply and Use Tables are constrained to the Scottish Government data.

B: Mining and quarrying
Latest Regional Accounts estimates are much closer to the adjusted estimates used in Scottish 1998-2012 Tables. The previous adjustments are no longer required.

CA: Manufacture of food etc.
Latest Regional Accounts estimates are much closer to the adjusted estimates used in Scottish 1998-2012 Tables. The previous adjustments are no longer required.

CDE: Manufacture of petroleum and chemicals etc.
Latest Regional Accounts estimates are much closer to the adjusted estimates used in Scottish 1998-2012 Tables, up to 2010.  ABS and other data sources suggest some deviation from Regional Accounts estimates are required for 2011.

CH: Manufacture of basic metals and products
Previous adjustments no longer required.

CI: Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products
ABS and other data sources suggest some deviation from Regional Accounts estimates are required for 2002 and 2003.

CK: Manufacture of machinery and equipment
ABS and other data sources suggest some deviation from Regional Accounts estimates are required for 2003 and 2009.

CL: Manufacture of transport equipment
Large drop in 2009 and spike in 2012 not seen in underlying ABS data - smoothing.

D: Electricity, gas etc.
Continuing to adjust to levels shown in the previously published 1998-2012 Tables.

E: Water Supply; sewerage, waste etc.
Continuing to adjust to levels shown in the previously published 1998-2012 Tables.

J: Information and communication
Continuing to adjust to levels shown in the previously published 1998-2012 Tables.

L: Real estate activities
Changes to UK Imputed Rent estimation methodology for Blue Book 2016 have been applied. This increases the GVA for Section L in all years.

M: Professional, scientific and technical activities
Latest Regional Accounts estimates are much closer to the adjusted estimates used in Scottish 1998-2012 Tables. The previous adjustments are no longer required.

N: Administrative and support service activities
ABS and other data sources suggest some deviation from Regional Accounts estimates are required for 2012 and 2013.

P: Education
Sharp fall in COE in 2012 not seen in other data sources

R: Arts, entertainment and recreation
Latest Regional Accounts estimates are much closer to the adjusted estimates used in Scottish 1998-2012 Tables. The previous adjustments are no longer required.

S: Other service activities
Previous adjustments no longer required.

Scottish I-O Team
July 2016

The Scottish Government Environmental Input-Output model (EIO) is used to estimate the Green House Gas emissions associated with Scottish Government spending plans as set out in the Scottish Draft Budget.

The latest Draft Budget 2016/17 and associated High Level Carbon Assessment were published on December 16th 2015.

More information about the Scottish Government Environmental Input-Output model.

Scottish I-O Team
December 2015

Published on 15th July 2015, the latest Supply, Use, Input-Output Tables and Multipliers for Scotland relate to 1998 to 2012. These tables are the first Scottish Tables that are consistent with the European System of Accounts 2010 (ESA2010) and are available in the downloads section of this site. Where possible the tables are also consistent with UK Blue Book 2014 based Supply and Use Tables and Regional Accounts estimates.

Official Statistics Status

At the request of the Chief Statistician, the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA) has re-designated the Scottish Input-Output Tables from National Statistics to Official Statistics. This brings us in line with the UK Input-Output Table re-designation detailed in UKSA Assessment Report 300. The report determined that the UK Tables should not carry the National Statistics designation, primarily because a key data source (the Purchase Inquiry) needs to be brought up to date. Our reliance on the same data led us to request that our Tables should also be re-designated. The correspondence between the Chief Statistician and the UK Statistics Authority is published on the UKSA correspondence pages.

Official statistics are produced by professionally independent statistical staff – more information on the standards of official statistics in Scotland can be accessed here.

Presentational changes

Input-Output Classifications (IOC)

We have replaced the Input-Output Classification number system with Standard Industrial Classification (SIC2007) based numbering. This is similar to the system used for the UK Input-Output Tables. Instead of the simple 1 through 98 numbering of the old IOC system, each Input-Output product / industry group is now numbered to reflect their SIC2007 codes. This change was made as a result of user feedback and there have been no changes to the coverage of the IOCs themselves; this is purely a label change.

The new IOC to 5 digit SIC2007 lookup table is available here.

Methodological changes

European System of Accounts 2010 (ESA 2010)

An overview of changes to national accounts at the UK level due to adopting the 2010 revision of the European System of Accounts (ESA 2010) is available from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) website here.

The main changes are summarised below, with links to articles by the ONS giving further details of the changes.

Research and Development

Expenditure on research and development is now treated as Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) instead of intermediate consumption, leading to an increase in GDP.

For the production measure of GDP, output of the market sector remains the same, while intermediate consumption is decreased by the value of bought-in and own-account R&D.  Output of the non-market sector is valued on a sum-of-costs basis, so output is reduced by excluding the value of the capitalised R&D, but with an offsetting increase from including the consumption of fixed capital in R&D assets. 

One exception to these rules is for the R&D industry itself; its purchases of R&D are treated as intermediate consumption.

For the expenditure measure of GDP, GFCF is increased by the total supply of the R&D product, less R&D purchased by the R&D industry.  Final consumption expenditure by the non-market sectors changes by the same amount as the non-market output changes for these sectors.

For the income measure of GDP, Gross Operating Surplus is increased by the same amount as Gross Fixed Capital formation in the market sector, and by the capital consumption of R&D assets in the non-market sector.

For more detail on this change, see the ONS Implementation Framework for Research and Development in the United Kingdom National Accounts.

Capitalisation of military hardware

Expenditure on weapons systems which qualify as assets is now included in gross fixed capital formation rather than intermediate consumption and government final consumption.  This affects the Weapons and Ammunition, Ships and Boats, and Aircraft and Spacecraft products.  Additionally, changes in military inventories are now included in the inventories column for the weapons and ammunition product.  Each of these changes lead to an increase in GDP.

Further detail on this change is available here.

Pensions

ESA 2010 introduces changes to the treatment of funded defined benefit pension schemes. Firstly, there is a revised methodology for calculating service charges for these schemes, which affects the output of the pensions industry. 

Secondly, contributions to these schemes are now valued on an actuarial basis.  Previously, only employers’ actual contributions to these schemes were recorded; under the new methodology, employers’ contributions are imputed to include the difference between the value of actual contributions and the actuarial value of the pension accrued.  These contributions form a part of Compensation of Employees (CoE) and lead to mutually offsetting changes to CoE and GOS in the market sector.  In the non-market sector, CoE changes, and non-market output and non-market final consumption change by the same amount.

For more detail on the treatment of pensions under ESA 2010, see this article on the ONS website.

Small tools

ESA 2010 removes the value threshold above which small tools are classed as capital formation rather than intermediate consumption (500 euros in 1995 prices).  In practice, items such as “[Expenditure on] inexpensive tools used for common operations ,such as saws, spades, knives, axes, hammers, screwdrivers, wrenches and other hand tools; small devices such as pocket calculators … is recorded as intermediate consumption.”  This change decreases intermediate consumption and increases GFCF and GOS, leading to an increase in GDP.

Changes to the measurement of trade

Several changes have been made to the treatment of trade in ESA 2010 and Balance of Payments Manual 6 (BPM6).  These changes are all GDP neutral and affect:

• Goods Sent Abroad for Processing
• Merchanted Goods
• Remote Gambling

ONS have produced an article describing the effects of these changes available from their website here.

Note that Goods Sent Abroad for Processing and Merchanted Goods changes have only been implemented for Rest of World trade in the Scottish tables as data to implement the changes for trade between Scotland and the Rest of the UK are not available.

Methodological changes

Non-ESA 2010 changes

Outside of the ESA 2010 changes, the UK has also made a number of changes to methods and data to improve international comparability of its Gross National Income (GNI) and wider national accounts statistics, which have led to changes in Scottish estimates.  Detail of the changes at the UK level are available here.  An outline of the main changes is provided below.

Own Account Construction (GNI)

Own Account Construction, previously valued on a sum of costs basis, now also includes a mark-up representing the cost of capital.

Improvements to UK data sources

An ONS review to ensure exhaustiveness of GDP estimates has led to improvements to UK data sources and methodology relating to several products:

• Satellite & digital TV
• Fuel
• Gambling

These improvements have the indirect effect of improving Scottish estimates.

Household expenditure on new cars

Estimates of household spending on new cars now captures discounts and the value of optional extras.

Inclusion of illegal drug and prostitution activities

ESA 1995 states that illegal activities fall within the production boundary of national accounts.  In order to improve international comparability, UK National Accounts now include estimates for prostitution and the production of illegal drugs.  Scottish estimates of these activities based on a population share have been included in the Scottish Supply-Use tables.  Details of the methodology used for the production of UK estimates of prostitution and illegal drug activity may be found here.

UK Regional Accounts constraining

As with previous tables, the GVA figures are broadly equivalent to the raw SIC(2007) section level Regional Accounts figures published by the Office for National Statistics, the latest available being published in December 2014. Please note that due to the combining of SIC(2007) 19 'Coke and petroleum' with SIC(2007) 20.14, 20.16 and 20.17 'Petrochemicals' within the Scottish Input-Output Classification system, the Regional Accounts sub-manufacturing category CD 'Coke and refined petroleum products' and CE 'Chemicals and chemical products' must be combined before constraining.

The final Supply and Use table estimates are based upon triangulation of ONS Regional Gross Value Added (income approach) and the full range of data sources available to the Supply Use system; Scottish National Accounts Project, quarterly GDP(O) systems and, after extensive data cleaning, the Annual Business Survey data. These other sources include data received directly from companies and other organisations. The table below highlights where Scottish Use Tables differ from the UK Blue Book 2014 consistent Regional Accounts.

Further information about the move away from full consistency with UK Regional Accounts for Scotland can be seen below under "Publication of Input-Output Tables and Multipliers for Scotland 1998-2007".

Difference between ONS Regional Accounts raw GVA estimates and published Scottish Use table values Published SUT estimate minus Regional Accounts raw estimates (£m)
note - only showing Regional Accounts categories where changes have been made

A: Agriculture, forestry and fishing
The fall in GVA seen in Regional Accounts (RA) data from 2005 onwards is not seen in Scottish Government Agriculture Output, Input and Income Statistics. Following advice from Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services and the UK Department for Environment Food & Rural Affairs the Supply and Use Tables are constrained to the Scottish Government data.

B: Mining and quarrying
It looks as though Regional Accounts allocate some elements of onshore GVA using ABS data that includes extraction. Since nearly all offshore activity is classed as 'extra-regio' within the UK National Accounts this overestimates the Scottish share. Re-estimated using onshore estimates.

CA: Manufacture of food etc.
The Annual Business Survey (ABS) and other data sources suggest stronger growth from 2007 onwards.

CDE: Manufacture of petroleum and chemicals etc.
Latest Regional Accounts estimates are much closer to the adjusted estimates used in Scottish 1998-2011 SUTs, up to 2010.  The previous adjustments applied up to 2009 are no longer required. ABS and other data sources suggest some deviation from Regional Accounts estimates are required for 2011 and 2012.

CF: Manufacture of pharmaceuticals
Latest Regional Accounts estimates are much closer to the adjusted estimates used in Scottish 1998-2011 SUTs. The previous adjustments applied to 2004 to 2007 are no longer required.

CH: Manufacture of basic metals and products
ABS data suggests higher GVA in 2008, 2010 and 2011.

CI: Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products
ABS and other data sources suggest some adjustment to 1998 and 1999 required.

CL: Manufacture of transport equipment
Large drop in 2009 and spike in 2011 not seen in underlying ABS data - smoothing.

D: Electricity, gas etc.
ABS and other data sources suggest higher growth from 2008 onwards.

E: Water Supply; sewerage, waste etc.
Regional Accounts Gross Operating Surplus spike in 2008 is not seen in the ABS data. Output in all years dropped slightly to allow a balance of supply and demand.

F: Construction
Latest Regional Accounts estimates are much closer to the adjusted estimates used in Scottish 1998-2011 SUTs. No adjustment required.

J: Information and communication
ABS and other data sources suggest adjustment required.

M: Professional, scientific and technical activities
ABS and other data sources suggest flatter growth 2010 to 2012.

N: Administrative and support service activities
ABS and other data sources suggest less growth in 2009.

P: Education
Sharp fall in COE in 2012 not seen in other data sources

Q: Human health and social work activities
Latest Regional Accounts estimates are much closer to the adjusted estimates used in Scottish 1998-2011 SUTs. No adjustment required.

R: Arts, entertainment and recreation
Low estimates in Regional Accounts GOS in 1998 and 1999 and large spikes in in 2003, 2006 and 2009, these are not seen in the ABS and very difficult to balance supply and demand.

S: Other service activities
Large Regional Accounts revisions as a result of the NPISH review and the ESA2010 inclusion of illegal activities meant it was very difficult to balance supply and demand in 2012.

Scottish I-O Team
July 2015

The Scottish Government Environmental Input-Output model (EIO) is used to estimate the Green House Gas emissions associated with Scottish Government spending plans as set out in the Scottish Draft Budget.

The latest Draft Budget 2015/16 and associated High Level Carbon Assessment were published on October 9th 2014.

More information about the Scottish Government Environmental Input-Output model

Scottish I-O Team
October 2014

During the production of the Quarterly National Accounts Scotland for 2014 Q1 an error was identified in the allocation of some product taxes and subsidies in the 1998-2011 Supply-Use tables published on 16th July 2014. This error has now been corrected, leading to revisions mainly affecting the Wines & Spirits and Electricity products. Estimates of GVA by industry were not affected by the error.

Corrected tables are now available in the downloads section. The Input-Output Team apologises for any inconvenience caused.

Scottish I-O Team
August 13th, 2014

Published on 16th July 2014, the latest Supply, Use, Input-Output Tables and Multipliers for Scotland relate to 1998 to 2011. The tables are available in the downloads section of this site. These tables are consistent with UK Blue Book 2013 based Supply and Use Tables and Regional Accounts estimates.

Presentational changes

Input-Output Classifications (IOC)

The industry / product detail has reduced from the previously published 104 Input-Output Classifications to 98. They continue to be on a Standard Industrial Classification of Economic Activities 2007 (SIC(2007)) basis. This affects construction, TV and broadcasting, oil extraction, waste management, social work and residential services.

Construction, TV and broadcasting, social work and residential care have been collapsed in line with UK Blue Book 2013 consistent Input-Output tables.

For oil extraction; historically this was a near zero output industry in Scotland. Nearly all activity was offshore and therefore classed as 'extra-regio' within the UK National Accounts. Recent onshore extraction activity within Scotland has data disclosure implications, as a result we must now add this category to ‘other mining’. Finally, ‘Remediation and waste management’; very small GVA and COE estimates generate some very high multipliers. For the 1998-2009 publication these were supressed, it seems more sensible to merge this industry with ‘Waste’.

The full list of changes is as follows:

Non-resident household expenditure in Scotland

Historically this has appeared next to the household final consumption expenditure column in the Use, Industry by Industry and Product by Product Tables. Since this expenditure is technically an export, the column has been moved to be alongside the rest of UK and rest of world exports columns, and is now included within 'total exports'.

Methodological changes

Financial services

Previous estimates were based upon ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings based Scottish employment shares. This has now changed to Scottish shares of UK banking data based on fees, commission and interest spread. These data are sourced directly from ONS and are consistent with GDP(O) short term indicator banking data.

Insurance and pensions

Previous estimates were based upon ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings based Scottish employment shares. These estimates are now based on insurance and pensions data from ONS Survey MQ5, Investment by Insurance Companies, Pension Funds and Trusts.

HHFCE and imputed rent

In line with the UK Supply and Use Tables, dwellings maintenance expenditure by households now crosses from household final consumption expenditure into imputed rent and will appear as off diagonal expenditure within that column.

Agriculture Gross Capital Formation (GCF)

The estimates for GCF for the agriculture industry are now taken directly from the Total Income from Farming data. Previously the Scottish to UK Gross Operating Surplus proportions were applied to UK agriculture estimates of GCF.

Industry by Industry Table methodology

Discussed at the Input-Output Expert Users Group Meeting in November 2013, we have changed the way we produce the symmetric Industry by Industry table to bring the methodology more in line with the recommendations within The Eurostat Manual of Supply, Use and Input-Output Tables. We have moved from a mixed technology assumption model to a fixed product sales structure model. The former is based on the approach described as Model E in the Eurostat manual (see Table 11.27), but the fixed product sales structure (Model D) is strongly preferred for IxI tables. More discussion about the methodology can be found in this Input-Output Users Group paper and Industry by Industry Tables produced using the old (Model E) methodology are available upon request.

UK Regional Accounts constraining

As with previous tables, the GVA figures are broadly equivalent to the raw SIC(2007) section level Regional Accounts figures published by the Office for National Statistics, the latest available being published in December 2013. These latest tables detailed 13 sub-sections within the manufacturing SIC(2007) section rather than the whole section estimates provided in Blue Book 2012 Regional Accounts. Please note that due to the combining of SIC(2007) 19 'Coke and petroleum' with SIC(2007) 20.14, 20.16 and 20.17 'Petrochemicals' within the Scottish Input-Output Classification system, the Regional Accounts sub-manufacturing category D 'Coke and refined petroleum products' and E 'Chemicals and chemical products' must be combined before constraining.

The final Supply and Use table estimates are based upon triangulation of ONS Regional Gross Value Added (income approach) and the full range of data sources available to the Supply Use system; Scottish National Accounts Project, quarterly GDP(O) systems and, after extensive data cleaning, the Annual Business Survey data. These other sources include data received directly from companies and other organisations. The table below highlights where Scottish Use Tables differ from the UK Blue Book 2013 consistent Regional Accounts.

Further information about the move away from full consistency with UK Regional Accounts for Scotland can be seen below under "Publication of Input-Output Tables and Multipliers for Scotland 1998-2007".

Difference between ONS Regional Accounts raw GVA estimates and published Scottish Use table values Published SUT estimate minus Regional Accounts raw estimates (£m)
note - only showing Regional Accounts categories where changes have been made

A: Agriculture, forestry and fishing
The fall in GVA seen in Regional Accounts (RA) data from 2005 onwards is not seen in Scottish Government Agriculture Output, Input and Income Statistics. Following advice from Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services and the UK Department for Environment Food & Rural Affairs the Supply and Use Tables are constrained to the Scottish Government data.

CA: Manufacture of food etc.
The Annual Business Survey (ABS) and other data sources suggest stronger growth from 2007 onwards.

CDE: Manufacture of petroleum and chemicals etc.
ABS and other data sources suggest some deviation from Regional Accounts estimates.

CF: Manufacture of pharmaceuticals
Regional Accounts strong growth in 2004 to 2007 is not seen in the ABS.

CH: Manufacture of basic metals and products
ABS data suggests higher GVA in 2008, 2010 and 2011.

CL: Manufacture of transport equipment
Negative Gross Operating Surplus in UK data is not seen in the ABS data.

D: Electricity, gas etc.
ABS and other data sources show no fall in GVA estimates between 1998 to 2000 and suggest higher growth from 2008 onwards.

E: Water Supply; sewerage, waste etc.
Regional Accounts Gross Operating Surplus spike in 2008 is not seen in the ABS data.

F: Construction
ABS and other data sources suggest higher overall GVA, these are closer to Blue Book 2012 based Regional Accounts estimates.

H: Transportation and storage
Blue Book 2013 based Regional Accounts estimates more in line with our previously published GVA, the old adjustment is no longer required.

J: Information and communication
The large spike seen in Blue Book 2012 based Regional Accounts estimates for 2007 no longer seen in 2013 based estimates, the old adjustment to 2007 is no longer required. ABS data suggest no fall in GOS in 2010 and 2011.

K: Financial and insurance activities
Blue Book 2013 based Regional Accounts estimates are more in line with our previously published GVA, the old adjustment is no longer required.

Q: Human health and social work activities
Large drop in Regional Accounts GOS estimate in 2010 is not seen in the ABS and other data sources.

R: Arts, entertainment and recreation
Blue Book 2013 based Regional Accounts have introduced large spikes in GOS in 2003, 2006 and 2009, these and a spike in Compensation of Employees in 2011 are not seen in the ABS.

Scottish I-O Team
July 2014

The Scottish Government Environmental Input-Output model (EIO) is used to estimate the Green House Gas emissions associated with Scottish Government spending plans as set out in the Scottish Draft Budget.

The latest Draft Budget and associated High Level Carbon Assessment were published on September 11th 2013.

More information about the Scottish Government Environmental Input-Output model

Scottish I-O Team
September 2013

An error in our calculation of the underlying employment data used to construct the employment multipliers and effects for Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (IOCs 1-5) has been identified. This affects all Type 1 and Type 2 employment multipliers and effects estimates.

The Supply, Use, Industry by Industry, Product by Product and Leontief Tables are unaffected. Similarly the Output, Income and GVA multipliers and effects are unchanged.

Apologies to any users that may have already used the employment multipliers or effects estimates. If you wish to discuss the changes please get in touch.

Updated multipliers are now available in the downloads section.

Scottish I-O Team
June 2013

Published on 15th May 2013, the latest Input-Output Tables and Multipliers for Scotland relate to 1998 to 2009. The tables are available in the downloads section of this site. These tables are consistent with UK Blue Book 2012 based Supply and Use Tables and Regional Accounts estimates.

Methodological changes

These are the first Scottish tables to implement the change to the new Standard Industrial Classification of Economic Activities 2007 (SIC(2007)). The classification change was effective from 1st January 2008 and represents a major revision of the classification system motivated by the need to adapt the classifications to changes in the world economy. A major reworking of the Scottish Input-Output systems was required to produce tables using the new SIC(2007) Input-Output Categories. More information about these changes and the methods adopted to convert the Tables, can be found in a paper 2012/6 discussed at the Scottish Economics Statistics Consultants Group in October 2012.

Insurance changes

Changes implemented in the UK Blue Book 2012 relating to the measurement and treatment of insurance services have fed through to the Blue Book 2012 consistent UK Supply and Use Tables and will be reflected in the Scottish Tables. Insurance output is now reported using the preferred international approach of including the full amount of risks accepted by the insurer (gross of reinsurance). More information about this change can be found in this ONS article.

Further education

Colleges of Further Education in Scotland have been reclassified from Non-Profit Institutions Serving Households (NPISH) to Central Government. This change takes effect from 1 April 1993 in the accounts.

The decision by ONS is based on European classification guidance, specifically the requirement in the UK for public sector approval for any borrowing Further Education institutions wish to undertake. This decision affects Further Education Corporations in England and Wales and Institutions of Further Education in Northern Ireland. More information can be found in this ONS Classification Article.

Employment multipliers and effects

Type 1 and 2 Full Time Equivalent employment multipliers and effects now include estimates of self-employment and HM Forces derived from NOMIS Workforce Jobs data.

UK Regional Accounts constraining

As in the previous set of Tables, the GVA figures are broadly equivalent to the raw Regional Accounts figures published by the Office for National Statistics in December 2012. However, the actual source used are the GDP(i) estimates produced as part of the Scottish National Accounts Project (SNAP) which also take into account any recent changes to total UK GVA since the last publication of the Regional Accounts. The exact figure is based upon triangulation of ONS Regional Accounts and the full range of data sources available to the Supply Use system, Scottish National Accounts Project and quarterly GDP(O) systems and after extensive data cleaning of the Annual Business Survey data. These other sources include data received directly from companies and other organisations. The table below highlights where the Regional Accounts and the Use Tables differ.

Further information about the move away from full consistency with UK Regional Accounts for Scotland can be seen below under "Publication of Input-Output Tables and Multipliers for Scotland 1998-2007".

Difference between ONS Regional Accounts raw GVA estimates and published Scottish Use table values Published SUT estimate minus Regional Accounts raw estimates (£m)
note - only showing Regional Accounts categories where changes have been made

A: Agriculture, forestry and fishing
The fall in GVA seen in Regional Accounts data from 2005 onwards is not seen in Scottish Government Agriculture Output, Input and Income Statistics. Following advice from Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services and the UK Department for Environment Food & Rural Affairs the Supply and Use Tables are constrained to the Scottish Government data.

C: Manufacturing
D: Electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply
E: Construction
G: Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles
Other data sources suggest the GVA peak was in 2008 and not 2007 as seen in the Regional Accounts data. The large drop in Regional Accounts GVA estimates for Electricity, gas and steam in 1998 to 2000 and flat Construction in 2005 are also not seen in other data sources.

H: Transportation and storage
Other data sources suggest lower GVA but higher overall growth throughout the series.

J: Information and communication
Large spike seen in Regional Accounts 2007 data not seen in other data sources.

K: Financial and insurance activities
Insurance losses (mostly London) are allocated to Scotland by Regional Accounts Wages and Salaries methodology.

Scottish I-O Team
May 2013

The Scottish Government Environmental Input-Output model (EIO) is used to estimate the Green House Gas emissions associated with Scottish Government spending plans as set out in the Scottish Draft Budget.

The latest Draft Budget and associated High Level Carbon Assessment were published on September 21st 2011.

More information about the Scottish Government Environmental Input-Output model

Scottish I-O Team
September 2011

The Scottish Government Environmental Input-Output model (EIO) is used to estimate the Green House Gas emissions associated with Scottish Government spending plans as set out in the Scottish Draft Budget.

The latest Draft Budget and associated High Level Carbon Assessment were published on November 17th 2010.

More information about the Scottish Government Environmental Input-Output model

Scottish I-O Team
November 2010

Published on 13th October 2010, the latest Input-Output Tables and Multipliers for Scotland relate to 1998 to 2007. The tables are available in the downloads section of this site.

For the first time the tables include Greenhouse Gas Emission effects. These will used to estimate the emissions in the High Level Carbon Assessment of the Scottish Draft Budget 2011/2012, currently scheduled for November 2010. Please see GHG estimation methodology for more information.

Methodological changes

Overall, this set of tables uses the same methodology as the 1998-2004 tables published in March 2009. The main methodological changes are:

Regional Accounts constraining

The 126 industry GVA estimates published in the Use tables have been constrained to ONS Regional Accounts for a number of years. Since Regional Accounts are at the 31 Industry level, the Input-Output categories always summed to the individual Regional Accounts category totals.

In the past, the smoothed, headline Regional Accounts estimates have been used. After discussion within the Input-Output Expert Users Group the decision has been taken to switch over to using the raw GVA estimates. Since there is increasing use of the Supply-Use Tables within the Scottish National Accounts Project, on advice from ONS National Accounts and the Input-Output Expert Users Group, it makes more sense to use the actual raw estimates rather than artificially smoothed estimates. The raw estimates represent actual changes from year to year. The smoothed estimates are required by Eurostat as a measure of longer term changes in trend, and therefore do not reflect actual changes from one year to the next.

The GVA figures contained in the latest IO tables are broadly equivalent (unless explicitly adjusted; see table below) to the raw Regional Accounts figures published by the Office for National Statistics. However, the actual source used is the GDP(i) estimates produced as part of the Scottish National Accounts Project (SNAP) which also take into account any recent changes to total UK GVA since the last publication of the Regional Accounts, in practice for the period covered by the latest IO release, the difference is marginal, for 2007 the adjusted GVA figure only diverges from the published Regional Accounts total by £0.45 million.

Over the past few years there have been several industries where we have felt Scottish GVA estimates taken from the Annual Business Inquiry were more accurate than Regional Accounts top down Scottish employment share of UK estimates. Although expert users recognise the advantages of having a fully UK Regional Accounts constrained set of Scottish Supply-Use Tables, it was agreed by the expert users group that, where other data sources suggest otherwise, it would be preferable for the Scottish estimates to depart from this constraint.

As a result, there has been close working with the Scottish National Accounts Project (SNAP) and GDP(O) Short Term Indicators teams over a number of months to enforce consistency between each source to allow triangulation between Regional Accounts and alternative estimates. Constraining to Regional Accounts raw estimates has been the initial and default position, only breaking away from Regional Accounts estimates where it was felt necessary due to access to better data and where differences could be explained with reference to the Regional Accounts methodologies.

Difference between ONS Regional Accounts raw GVA estimates and published Scottish Use table values
Published SUT estimate minus Regional Accounts raw estimates (£m)
note - only showing Regional Accounts categories where changes have been made

DF: Manufacture of Coke, Refined Petroleum Products and Nuclear Fuel
DG: Manufacture of Chemicals, Chemical products and Man-Made Fibres
Data obtained directly from producers suggests principle product classification issues within Regional Accounts estimates

In the past, during the process of moving initial GVA estimates either up or down to constrain to published Regional Accounts figures, overall industry output was not changed. Instead, Intermediate Consumption was adjusted to retain the initial output estimate with a resulting change in the overall industry production function. This has been discussed and recognised as not ideal by the Expert Users Group. On advice from ONS representation on that group the Scottish tables now retain the initial GVA to Output ratio so that industry output will increase or decrease in line with the GVA changes, thus retaining the initial production function, as obtained from the Annual Business Inquiry. This is an important improvement which should provide better quality industry linkage estimates and therefore improved economic impact assessments that utilise the Input-Output analytical tables and multipliers.

Since output can now change during GVA constraining, industry level Output at basic Prices in the Supply table must also change to the same estimate. This has resulted in shifts of domestic output and trade to the rest of the UK and rest of the World when compared to previously published figures.

Agriculture

Note that the Single Farm Subsidy came into effect in January 2005 increasing the figure within the taxes less subsidies row of the Use matrix from 2005 onwards. This change is also noticeable in the UK Use table.

Household and Tourist Demand

Scottish National Accounts Project data are now being used for Household and Tourist expenditure totals. This is based on quarterly estimates, summed to calendar year, for household expenditures consistent with the UK consumer trends. The new methodology is consistent with other estimates used in the Government Expenditure Revenue Scotland (GERS) exercise.

Scottish I-O Team
October 2010

The next set of Input-Output Tables and Multipliers for Scotland will be available to download from Wednesday October 13th 2010.

Our original plan to produce 2004-2007 tables is changed in favour of producing a full set of 1998-2007 tables to ensure a long run consistent time series of tables back to 1998 to allow formal benchmarking of the data underpinning the quarterly GDP(O) index in constant prices. This also supports the production of a number of new statistical products resulting from the Scottish National Accounts Project.

Alongside the usual output, income, employment and GVA multiplier and effects tables, we shall also publish a set of Greenhouse Gas Emission effects. These will be used to estimate the emissions in the High Level Carbon Assessment of the Scottish Draft Budget 2011/2012, currently scheduled for November 2010.

The GHG emission effects will be based upon the 2007 IO tables and will be in 2011/12 prices. Please see the 2010/11 Carbon Assessment for more information.

Scottish I-O Team
September 2010

The Scottish Budget Draft Budget 2010/11 was published on September 17th.

The Draft Budget itself can be found here:

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2009/09/17093831/0

The accompanying High Level Carbon Assessment document can be found here:

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/budgetcarbonassessment

Scottish I-O Team
September 2009

In 2008 the Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Sustainable Growth made a commitment to publish estimates of the Green House Gas emissions associated with the planned government spending as detailed in the Scottish Government Draft Budget, scheduled to be published in September 2009.

The commitment by the Cabinet Secretary is an ambitious one. A range of experts acknowledged in evidence to the Transport, Infrastructure and Climate Change Committee that the carbon assessment of spend is a complex process and that there is no single recognised estimation methodology. Recognising the challenging nature of the task, the Scottish Government convened an expert workshop at the end of November 2008 to discuss the merits and limitations of different methodologies, and identify the most appropriate way forward. Having considered a number of possibilities, Environmental Input-Output (EIO) analysis was identified by the contractors as providing the best option to provide a high level assessment of the impact of Government spending on emissions.

The Office of the Chief Economic Adviser has been working with economists and researchers in the Scottish Government Rural and Environment Analytical Services to extend the current IO model to include GHG emission intensities from ONS Environmental Accounts. We have also been working with Scottish Government Finance colleagues to map individual draft budget spend lines on to the industrial classification required for the EIO analyses.

The plan is to publish the modelled analyses alongside the Scottish Budget within a separate High Level Carbon Assessment document. The very clear message will be that these are initial estimates of GHG emissions. In this context, it is important to see the assessment this September as a developing approach (without precedent in government accounting), with further work required over time to develop the accuracy and functionality of assessment techniques.

This will be important because, from 2010, there will be a statutory requirement for the Scottish Government to publish GHG emissions estimates along side their spending plans. The intention, in the longer term is to work towards developing the methodology and to agree a publication strategy that would sit within the pre-announcement and pre-release access required of Official Statistics.

A link to the Draft Budget and the accompanying High Level Carbon Assessment document will be placed here once they are published in September.

Scottish I-O Team
August 2009

The Scottish Input-Output Tables, Supply and Use Tables and associated analyses rely heavily on the UK Supply and Use Tables. As a result of the UK National Accounts re-engineering programme it was not possible to construct 2005 and 2006 Scottish Supply and Use Tables. This was discussed in the Input-Output Expert Users Group (IOEUG) and agreed that Scotland should use 2008 to develop time series consistent Supply and Use tables and associated analytical tables. This work was completed and published in March 2009. For more information about the Scottish Supply and Use table publications plans and decisions for 2008 please see papers and minutes from the IOEUG May 2007 meeting.

Since publication of the 1998-2004 tables, we have been working with ONS colleagues to obtain sufficient UK Supply and Use Table data to allow construction of more up to date tables. ONS published the UK 2004-2007 Supply and Use tables at the end of July 2009 and the agreements are now in place to begin to receive the data required to produce the Scottish tables.

The Scottish IO team are now beginning to construct the raw 2004-2007 tables and plan to publish these in 2010. It is not possible at the moment to be more specific about when the new tables will be ready for publication; high levels of work on developing the new High Level Carbon Assessment of Government Spending, staff changes and the system changes required to deal with the new, post re-engineered ONS National Accounts System Supply and Use Table data are all playing a part. For more information please see the papers and minutes from the IOEUG May 2009 meeting.

Updates will be posted here when available.

Scottish I-O Team
August 2009

Published on 31st March 2009, the latest tables relate to 1998 to 2004. These are the first Scottish time series consistent tables and replace previously published tables for these years, which were published as annual snapshots. The tables are available in the downloads section of this site.

Overall, this set of tables uses the same methodology as the original 2004 tables, which were published in December 2007. The main methodological changes are:

Finance Sector

Some of the industries relating to financial intermediation have been merged, namely '100.1 - Banking' and '100.2 - Other Financial Institutions' were merged to be just 100, and '102.1 - Auxiliary Financial Services nec' and '102.2 - Auxiliary to Insurance' were merged to be just 102.

The reason for merging these is that, for IOCs 100.1 and 100.2, there is no longer any real difference in the activities these industries carry out - the activities of building societies are largely indistinguishable from banks, and for IOCs 102.1 and 102.2 there is no up-to-date reliable data source available to allow us to update these figures.

Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured (FISIM)

According to the European System of Accounts 1995 (ESA95) there are 2 methods of allocating FISIM in the Input-Output tables. The simplest way, which we have used in previous years, is to treat FISIM as a nominal industry with negative GVA. The second option is to quantify the value of FISIM 'supplied' to each of the intermediate and final demand sectors. Since the UK I-O tables have now adopted the second, more complicated, method we now have the necessary data to allow the Scottish I-O tables to be produced in the same way.

For more information on FISIM and the revised methodology please these papers from the SESCG meeting:

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/ScotStat/Oct08Paper3

and the article in SES 2008:

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2009/01/29150444/7

Scottish I-O Team
March 2009

The Scottish Input-Output Tables, Supply and Use Tables and associated analyses rely heavily on the UK Supply and Use Tables and are constrained to the Regional Accounts based estimates of Gross Value Added ( GVA) at the 31 industry level (and financial intermediation services indirectly measured).

The UK National Accounts systems and methods are undergoing a major overhaul as part of the Office for National Statistics statistical modernisation programme. The National Accounts re-engineering programme is aiming to deliver quarterly and annual Supply and Use Tables in both current prices and previous years' prices going back to 1997. To facilitate this process, the Input-Output Analytical Tables produced by the ONS were suspended in 2003, and the ONS 2007 annual Blue Book exercise did not include the production of the 2005 Supply and Use Tables, revisions to earlier Supply and Use Tables, annual benchmarking of quarterly sources onto annual survey results, amongst various other stored revisions including the allocation of financial intermediation services indirectly measured. This in turn affects the Regional Accounts as the UK control totals by industry, by sector and by type of income are generated through the production of the Supply and Use Tables process.

As a result, there will be no UK Supply and Use Tables, Input-Output publication or associated analyses until around September 2008. More details of the modernisation work can be found in this article on the ONS web site.

These changes also affect the publication of ONS Regional Accounts estimates of GVA at the industry level such that in the 2007 December publication, the industrial detail will not be published.

As a result of these changes, publication of the 2005 Scottish Input-Output Tables, scheduled for December 2008, will also be delayed.

After consultation with the Input-Output Expert Users Group, it was agreed that ONS re-engineering provided the opportunity to work on the planned development of consistent times series Input-Output Tables for Scotland. The group was consulted on a range of options and it was agreed we would begin the development of a full set of 1998-2004 tables as soon as the 2004 tables were published. Please see the May 2007 meeting on the Expert Users Group web site (part of SCOTSTAT) for further information about this decision: www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/scotstat/economy/groups .

Scottish I-O Team
December 2007