Alcohol (Minimum Pricing) (Scotland) Act 2012 - operation and effect 2018 to 2023: report

Conclusions and next steps

This report has considered evidence on the operation and effect of MUP over the five years between its implementation in May 2018 up to end April 2023. It contains information on the impact of the policy, including detail on the extent to which MUP has, to date, met its intended aim of reducing alcohol related harm. This information is drawn from the evaluation of the policy led by Public Health Scotland and from the findings of a call for evidence which included Ministerial roundtable events, and engagement with relevant stakeholders and expert groups including public health and business sectors.

The overall conclusion in the PHS final evaluation report on MUP is that the evidence supports that MUP has had a positive impact on health outcomes – MUP was estimated to have reduced deaths directly caused by alcohol consumption by 13.4% and likely to have reduced hospital admissions by 4.1% compared to what would have happened if MUP had not been in place.

The evaluation also concluded that MUP has contributed to reducing health inequalities, as the largest estimated reductions in deaths and hospital admissions wholly attributable to alcohol consumption were seen in those living in the 40% most deprived areas.

There was also strong and consistent evidence of a reduction in alcohol consumption following MUP implementation. The evaluation found that the reduction in consumption was driven by the heaviest purchasing households, and the majority of households were not affected, leading to the conclusion that MUP was well targeted. It was estimated that MUP resulted in decreases in alcohol-attributable deaths and hospital admissions related to chronic conditions, which the evaluation took as further evidence that MUP has reduced consumption in those that drink at hazardous and harmful levels.

The evaluation noted that there was limited evidence to suggest that MUP was effective in reducing consumption for people with alcohol dependence. People with alcohol dependence are a particular subgroup of those who drink at harmful levels and have specific needs. People with alcohol dependence need timely and evidence-based treatment and wider support that addresses the root cause of their dependence.

Overall, there was no consistent evidence that MUP impacted either positively or negatively on the alcoholic drinks industry as a whole.

The evaluation concluded that compliance with the legislation was high and that sales of alcohol below £0.50 per unit largely disappeared following the implementation of MUP. There was also strong evidence of an immediate increase in the average price per unit of alcohol sold through the off-trade in Scotland, relative to other areas in Great Britain, following the implementation of MUP.

Roundtable events provided an opportunity for relevant stakeholders and expert groups across including health and business sectors to consider their own experiences of MUP which generated additional insight and perspective for Ministers to reflect upon.

Scottish Ministers have considered all the information presented in this report and conclude that there is sufficient evidence that Minimum Unit Pricing has achieved its policy aim.

Next steps

MUP is one of a range of population and individual level interventions set out in the 2018 Alcohol Framework that together are intended to improve the prevention and treatment of alcohol-related harm in Scotland. MUP was not designed to work in isolation and work will continue in this wide area to further reduce alcohol-related harm.

Alcohol-related harm continues to be high in Scotland. For example, the most recent data on alcohol-specific deaths (deaths wholly attributable to alcohol) was published by National Records of Scotland in August 2023. There were 1,276 alcohol-specific deaths registered in Scotland in 2022, an increase of 2% (31 deaths) on the previous year and the highest number of alcohol-specific deaths in Scotland since 2008.

Evidence for the evaluation period of MUP suggests that alcohol-specific mortality would have been worse in the absence of the MUP policy.

The effectiveness of MUP is directly linked to the price point that MUP is set at, it is impossible to distinguish the next steps for MUP without also considering the level at which it is set.

For this reason Ministers intend to launch a public consultation seeking views on the proposal to continue the effect of the MUP provisions, and amend the minimum price per unit.