Tackling child poverty delivery plan 2022-2026 - annex 8: children's rights and wellbeing impact assessment

7. What evidence have you used to inform your assessment?

The Plan sets out a range of policies aimed at tackling child poverty in Scotland, the evidence for this assessments is drawn from policy specific CRWIAs and supplemented with additional evidence related to child poverty, the priority families, and the impact of Covid-19 on child poverty and rights.

National child poverty data

Accurate statistical data is vital for tracking progress against the tackling child poverty targets: Child poverty summary (data.gov.scot) Child poverty analysis - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

Scottish Government's child poverty update shows that, during 2017-2020, relative poverty stabilised at 24% compared to the interim target for 2023/24 of 18%. It was estimated that 27% of the population were living in absolute poverty in 2017-20, compared to the 2023/24 interim target of 14%. However, it is important to note that this latest data was collected prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Child poverty data and analysis is also available from independent sources:

The End Child Poverty coalition released research in May 2021, detailing changes in child poverty over the previous five years. It is broken down by local area. Joseph Rowntree Foundation's 'Poverty in Scotland 2021: The independent annual review' includes modelling various scenarios to show the action needed to meet the interim child poverty targets. The Fraser of Allander Institute (University of Strathclyde) published a report in January 2022, analysing various types and combinations of policies the Scottish Government could use to meet the child poverty targets, with a focus on childcare, employability and social security measures.

Evidence of what works

A (quantitative) Cumulative Impact Assessment and comprehensive Evidence Review are published alongside the Plan. These publications, alongside annual progress reports, tell us what is working in the mission to tackle child poverty and inform the actions laid out in the Plan.

The cumulative impact assessment published alongside this plan models the impact of a package of policies on the child poverty targets. This analysis uses UKMOD – a microsimulation model – which allows us to estimate the impact of a set of policy measures on two of the targets: relative and absolute poverty. This type of modelling allows us to take into account the interaction between policies. The modelling shows that, as a result of the actions we have taken to date together with those set out in this plan, and using current projections, we anticipate that around 17% of children will live in relative poverty in 2023, with more than 60,000 fewer children living in poverty since the Act was passed in 2017. Whilst economic modelling cannot precisely account for what may happen, particularly in the context of the cost of living crisis, inflation rises and increasing international instability, we anticipate that over 50,000 fewer children will live in absolute poverty compared to 2017, with around 16% of children projected to live in absolute poverty in 2023.This data and the capabilities to model future cumulative impact are vital to planning our next steps in tackling child poverty, although it must be noted that external factors introduce a significant degree of uncertainty into our projections.

The Evidence Review presents a rapid review of empirical evidence on what works to tackle child poverty. It finds that flexible, tailored approaches are needed to tackle child poverty, and a combination of universal and targeted policies. The data highlight the importance of ensuring that critical infrastructure is in place to support families: a combination of employment, childcare, transport, and advice services, alongside cash benefits. This is reflected in the Plan's circle of support for families.

Priority families

The Plan focuses on delivering for the six priority family types at highest risk of poverty. Evidence on tackling child poverty among these families can be found in focused reports produced annually. The data in these reports demonstrate how priority groups are affected by structural inequalities, disproportionately un/underemployed and more likely to struggle with costs of living.

Minority ethnic families: Tackling child poverty: first year progress report - Annex C - gov.scot (www.gov.scot) //

Lone parents: Tackling child poverty: second year progress report - annex C - gov.scot (www.gov.scot) //

Families with a disabled adult or child: Tackling child poverty - third year progress report : annex B - child poverty in families with a disabled adult or child - gov.scot (www.gov.scot) //

Local child poverty data

The Plan supports a place based approach, recognising that there is no one size fits all solution to providing support in the community. There is a duty on local partners – Local Authorities and health boards – to report annually on progress in tackling child poverty. Sources of local data on child poverty include:

• UK Gov's Children in low income families: local area statistics
• SG Local Child Poverty Dashboard
• SG 'Children in families with limited resources'
• School Healthy Living Survey statistics: 2020 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

We recognise the need for place based data – quantitative and qualitative – to support targeted action on child poverty. The Plan supports pathfinder initiatives which are tailored to local areas, generating and drawing on local knowledge, beginning in Dundee and Glasgow. We will also collate evidence of Shetland Islands Council's multi-agency child poverty project, 'The Anchor Project'. This research will deepen our understanding of what elements of the model could and should be replicated in other rural and island communities.

Data on the impacts of Covid-19

There have been significant changes in the four years since the first Delivery Plan, which have impacted on the lives and experiences of children and families across Scotland. The new Plan launches in the context of Covid-19 recovery and seeks to learn from the collaborative action demonstrated in the pandemic response. The independent CRIAcompleted by the Observatory of Children's Human Rights Scotland identified that Covid-19 restrictions had impacts across a range of UNCRC Articles, affecting children's physical and mental health, education, poverty, food and digital access and play. The full impact of Covid-19 on child poverty levels is still largely unknown, particularly the long term effects on families and our economy. However, we know that the effects of the pandemic were not felt equally and deepened existing structural inequalities.

Public Health Scotland's 'Covid-19 Early Years Resilience and Impact Survey' (CEYRIS) found that Covid-19 restrictions impacted negatively on several aspects of children's lives, including play, behaviour, mood and physical activity. The findings highlight that families on lower incomes – including single-adult households and larger families - were generally more negatively affected by the restrictions. Children in these families were more likely to have concerns in relation to relationships, behaviour, and mental health and wellbeing than children in other families. It is evident that the Plan's focus on delivering for priority families is more important than ever.

The Scottish Government recently published qualitative research entitled 'Evaluation of COVID support in Low Income Households'. It focused on the six priority family types and families on low incomes. Of particular relevance to the Plan, this research highlighted participants' experiences of accessing support. People preferred to get advice from familiar, trusted places, and some found that digital connectivity was a barrier to accessing support. These concerns are addressed directly in the Plan.

A selection of evidence of the impacts of Covid-19 on young people:

• Coronavirus (Covid-19): children, young people and families - evidence summary - June 2021;
• COVID-19 Mitigation Measures Among Children and Young People in Scotland - Summary of the Evidence Base;
• Coronavirus (Covid-19) - experiences of vulnerable children, young people, and parents: research.
• 'The Impact of Covid-19 on children and young people in Scotland'.

• Coronavirus (Covid-19) - experiences of vulnerable children, young people, and parents;
• Froebel Trust: Young voices on Covid-19;
• Babies in lockdown: No one wants to see my baby;

• Impact Assessment: The closure of and reopening of schools as part of the Covid-19 recovery process in Scotland;
• Children's Parliament's 'Listen and Act' research project;
• Sector shutdowns during the coronavirus crisis: which workers are most exposed? - Institute For Fiscal Studies - IFS
• Class-of-2020.pdf (resolutionfoundation.org)

Early Learning and Childcare (ELC), Education and Attainment

A range of evidence, including the Growing Up in Scotland Study, shows that children from disadvantaged backgrounds benefit especially from the provision of ELC, and that high quality ELC can give children the best start in life, improve cognitive development, and contribute to closing the poverty-related attainment gap. The social, emotional, and educational outcomes from attending ELC speak to the 'SHANARRI' children's wellbeing indicators.

The Plan's offers on early childhood care and education align with the recommendation made by the UN committee in its concluding observations on the implementation of the UNCRC in the UK: 'Taking note of target 4.2 of the Sustainable Development Goals, on access to quality early childhood development services, allocate sufficient human, technical and financial resources for the development and expansion of early childhood care and education, based on a comprehensive and holistic policy of early childhood development, with special attention to the children in the most vulnerable situations'.

Nationally, the poverty-related attainment gap between pupils living in the most and least deprived areas has narrowed slightly, but it remains wide. School closures due to Covid-19 disproportionately affected children and young people in poverty. The Plan supports the Scottish Attainment Challenge in its efforts to close the gap.

A selection of evidence on ELC, education, attainment:

• http://www.healthscotland.scot/publications/rapid-evidence-review-childcare-quality-childrens-outcomes
• http://www.oecd.org/education/school/startingstrong.htm
• childrens-independent-cria.pdf (cypcs.org.uk)
• https://www.gov.scot/publications/growing-up-scotland-changes-child-cognitive-ability-pre-school-years/pages/0/
• Closing the poverty-related attainment gap: progress report 2016 to 2021 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
• Improving outcomes for young people through school education | Audit Scotland (audit-scotland.gov.uk)

Housing

The housing commitments highlighted in this plan are underpinned by evidence which shows that warm, healthy, safe and non-overcrowded homes in positive neighbourhoods can contribute to children's and young people's wellbeing and happiness, providing a healthy start and contributing to their social and physical development. Good homes with room for children to play, learn and study can contribute to educational attainment.