Annual Population Survey in Scotland 2005

Annex B - Future Developments

Modelled Unemployment Rates for Local Areas

The Office for National Statistics ( ONS) has jointly developed, with the University of Southampton, a new modelling methodology to produce estimates of unemployment levels and rates, on the International Labour Organisation ( ILO) definition, for local authority areas.

The model-based estimates are preferred over the direct APS estimates as they take the APS data and 'borrow strength' from the administrative claimant count to produce more precise estimates.

These model-based unemployment estimates are available quarterly from the Nomis ^® website - http://www.nomisweb.co.uk.

At present there are model-based estimates for local authorities only, but ONS are working on producing them also for parliamentary constituencies.

APS Household Dataset

ONS is developing a version of the APS datasets that will be suitable for family and household level labour market analysis, in order to meet the growing demand for more reliable statistics at the local area level. The APS family and household level datasets will be available quarterly on a rolling annual basis.

ONS plan to switch the data source for the 'Work and worklessness among households' First Release from the LFS household datasets to the new APS household datasets. ONS also plan to improve the content of the First Release. The current 'Work and worklessness among households' First Release can be found at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=12859&More=n

Provided that the development work is completed to schedule, it is envisage that the first APS household dataset to be released will cover the period July 2005-June 2006. The current plan is to publish a workless households First Release, using this dataset, in January 2007. The APS household dataset covering July 2004-June 2005 will be released at the same time, in order to show estimates of year-on-year changes in the First Release.

Face to Face Interviewing North of the Caledonian Canal

The Scottish Executive is working with ONS to improve the response rates to the LFS (main and Scottish boost) in the highlands and islands of Scotland (which is roughly designated as the are north of the Caledonian Canal ( NOCC)). Currently the method of including this part of the country is largely based on telephone interviews for all contacts, which leads to lower response rates than for the rest of Scotland (where there are face to face interviews in the first wave).

It has been agreed that a clustered sample will be adopted in the NOCC area with face to face interviewing in both the main LFS and the Scottish LFS boost. It is hoped that the face to face interviews will start in this area from January 2007.

The NOCC area comprises of the following whole or part local authority areas: Shetland Islands, Orkney Islands, Eilean Siar (Western Isles), Argyll & Bute (part) islands, North Ayrshire (part) islands, Highland (part) NOCC and Highland (part) SOCC.