Child poverty strategy: annual report, 2016
The third annual report on the Child Poverty Strategy for Scotland, which was published in March 2014.
4. Prospects: Improved Life Chances Of Children In Poverty
This chapter presents data for the indicators associated with the four intermediate outcomes highlighted below:
Figure 4.1: A Logic model for 'Prospects' outcome
Table 4.1 summarises how the baseline figures published in the 2014 annual report compare to the most recent figures for each indicator (usually from 2015 or 2014 - more detail on the dates and sources of data for each indicator are provided in the Annex). The assessment of performance is based on the following 6:
⬆ Performance improving - a statistically significant change in the desired direction
⬇ performance worsening - a statistically significant change in the opposite direction
⬌ Performance maintaining - no statistically significant change
Table 4.1: Summary of performance against the 'Prospects' indicators
| Indicator | 2014 report baseline | Most recent | |
| Percentage of children from the poorest households with good or very good health | 91.8% | 91.3% | ⬌ |
| Percentage of children from the most deprived areas with below average mental wellbeing scores | 19% | 18% | ⬌ |
| Percentage of children from the poorest households eating five portions of fruit and veg per day | 10.2% | 9.2% | ⬌ |
| Percentage of children from the poorest households spending four or more hours at a screen per day | 14.1% | 14.6% | ⬌ |
| Percentage of 15 year olds from the most deprived areas smoking at least one cigarette a week | 16% | 10% | ⬆ |
| Percentage of children from the poorest households who played sport in the last week | 58.2% | 56.4% | ⬌ |
| Percentage of children from the poorest households that find it easy to talk to mother or stepmother* | 80.0% | 79.4% | ⬌ |
| Percentage of children from the poorest households who agree pupils in class accept them* | 71.1% | 62.6% | ⬇ |
| Percentage of P7 pupils from the most deprived areas performing well in numeracy | 61.4% | 54.3% | ⬇ |
| Percentage of P7 pupils from the most deprived areas performing well in reading* | 81.6% | 81.4% | ⬌ |
| Percentage of P7 pupils from the most deprived areas performing well in writing* | 60.9% | 56.3% | ⬌ |
| Mean Strengths and Difficulties score for children from the poorest households | 9.4 | 9.1 | ⬌ |
| Percentage of the poorest parent households that are satisfied with local schools | 91% | 86% | ⬌ |
| Percentage of school leavers from the most deprived areas who are in positive destinations | 82.4% | 86.1% | ⬆ |
| Percentage of 15 year olds from the poorest households who expect to be in positive destinations* | 86.4% | 86.6% | ⬌ |
| Modern Apprenticeship starts | 25,284 | 25,818 | ⬆ |
| Modern Apprenticeship completion rate | 77% | 76% | ⬌ |
*Note that there has been no new data on these indicators since the 2015 annual report, and the performance assessments are therefore the same as reported previously.
The rest of this chapter considers each of the indicators in turn, looking at the longer-term trends and any additional data that helps put these into context. The baseline and most recent data points are highlighted in the charts.
Intermediate outcome 5: Children from low income households have improving levels of physical and mental health
Indicator 5.1 Percentage of children aged 2-15 from households in bottom three income deciles with good or very good parent-assessed health
In 2014 and 2015 (combined), 91.3% of children in the lowest three income deciles were assessed by their parents as having good or very good health. This is a similar level as in the baseline year (2010 and 2011 combined). There has been little change since 2008 and 2009 (combined).
There has also been little change in parent-assessed health among two to 15 year olds from households in the other seven income deciles.
⬌ Performance maintaining
Indicator 5.2 Percentage of 13 and 15 year olds from the 20% most deprived SIMD datazones with below average scores (14-40) on the Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale (WEMWBS)
This indicator measures mental health among young people aged 13 and 15 through the Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale (WEMWBS). Respondents are asked to indicate how often they have experienced 14 positive thoughts and feelings related to wellbeing and psychological functioning in the last two weeks. WEMWBS scores are reported on a scale of 14 to 70, with higher numbers indicating better mental wellbeing.
In 2015, 18% of 13 and 15 year olds from the 20% most deprived SIMD datazones had a below average WEMWBS score [7] , compared to 19% in the baseline year (2010). Older data for this indicator is not available.
The percentage of 13 and 15 year olds in the rest of Scotland with below average WEMWBS scores was 14% in 2015 and 2013, and 16% in 2010.
⬌ Performance maintaining
Indicator 5.3 Percentage of children aged 2-15 from households in bottom three income deciles eating five portions of fruit and veg per day
In 2014 and 2015 (combined), 9.2% of 2-15 year olds from households in the lowest three income deciles were eating the recommended five portions of fruit and vegetables a day, compared to 10.2% in the baseline year (2010 and 2011 combined).
The percentage of 2-15 year olds eating five portions of fruit and vegetables a day has been consistently lower among households in the bottom three income deciles than those in the top seven.
⬌ Performance maintaining
Indicator 5.4 Percentage of children aged 2-15 from households in bottom three income deciles spending four or more hours at a screen per day
This is a recognised measure of sedentary activities. In 2014 and 2015 (combined), 14.6% of 2-15 year olds from households in the lowest three income deciles spent four or more hours a day looking at a screen, compared to 14.1% in the baseline year (2010 and 2011 combined).
The percentage of 2-15 year olds spending four or more hours at a screen per day has been consistently higher among households in the bottom three income deciles than those in the top seven.
⬌ Performance maintaining
Indicator 5.5 Percentage of 15 year old school pupils in 20% most deprived SIMD datazones smoking at least one cigarette a week
Indicator 5.5 measures adolescent smoking, a health behaviour that displays a strong social gradient. In 2015, 10% of 15 year olds in the 20% most deprived SIMD datazones were regular smokers, defined as smoking at least one cigarette a week. This is a decrease from 16% in the baseline year (2010). There is an overall decreasing trend for this indicator.
The percentage of 15 year olds in the rest of Scotland who are regular smokers has also decreased.
⬆ Performance improving
Intermediate outcome 6: Children from low income households experience social inclusion and display social competence
This outcome is important both in terms of children's wellbeing, and their ability to 'fit in' in a range of social situations, allowing them to benefit fully from educational and social opportunities which will ultimately benefit them in accessing good quality employment.
Indicator 6.1 Percentage of children aged 2-15 from households in bottom three income deciles who have played sport in the last week
This is included as a measure of participation in positive activities or hobbies, as well as participation in group activities. In 2014 and 2015 (combined), 56.4% of children aged 2-15 from households in the lowest three income deciles had played sport in the previous week. This compares to 58.2% in the baseline year (2010 and 2011 combined).
The percentage of 2-15 year olds who have played sport in the last week has been consistently lower among households in the bottom three income deciles than those in the other seven.
⬌ Performance maintaining
Indicator 6.2 Percentage of 11, 13 and 15 year olds from bottom third of family affluence scale that find it easy to talk to mother or stepmother
This measures an aspect of a supportive home environment, which is a key contributor to both the social inclusion outcome and educational attainment. There has been no new data on this indicator since the 2015 annual report, and the performance assessment and figures are therefore the same as reported previously.
In 2014, 79.4% of 11, 13 and 15 year olds from the least affluent third of households reported that they found it easy to talk to their mother or stepmother, compared to 80.0% in the baseline year (2010). There has been virtually no change over time.
In 2014, children from the least affluent households were slightly less likely to find it easy to talk to their mother than children from other households, though there was no significant difference between the two groups prior to 2014.
⬌ Performance maintaining
Indicator 6.3 Percentage of 11, 13 and 15 year olds from bottom third of family affluence scale who agree that pupils in class accept them as they are
This focuses on social inclusion within the school context. There has been no new data on this indicator since the 2015 annual report, and the performance assessment and figures are therefore the same as reported previously.
In 2014, 62.6% of 11, 13 and 15 year olds from the least affluent third of households agreed that pupils in their class accepted them as they were, compared to 71.1% in the baseline year (2010).
The percentage of 11, 13 and 15 year olds from the least affluent third of households agreeing that pupils in their class accepted them as they were has been consistently lower among the least affluent households compared to all other households.
⬇ performance worsening
Intermediate outcome 7: Children from low income households have improving relative levels of educational attainment, achieving their full potential
This outcome recognises that education plays a key role in contributing to the future prospects of Scotland's children.
Indicator 7.1 Percentage of P7 pupils from the 30% most deprived SIMD datazones performing well or very well in numeracy
The percentage of Primary 7 (P7) pupils from the 30% most deprived areas who performed well or very well in numeracy was 54.3% in 2015, compared to 61.4% in the baseline year (2011).
The percentage of P7 pupils who performed well or very well in numeracy has been consistently lower among households in the 30% most deprived areas than those in the rest of Scotland.
⬇ performance worsening
Indicator 7.2 Percentage of P7 pupils from the 30% most deprived SIMD datazones performing well or very well in reading
There has been no new data on this indicator since the 2015 annual report, and the performance assessment and figures are therefore the same as reported previously.
In 2014, the percentage of P7 pupils from the 30% most deprived datazones who performed well or very well in reading was 81.4%, compared to 81.6% in the baseline year (2012 - the first time this measure was collected).
The percentage of P7 pupils who performed well or very well in reading has been consistently lower among households in the 30% most deprived areas than those in the rest of Scotland.
⬌ Performance maintaining
Indicator 7.3 Percentage of P7 pupils from the 30% most deprived SIMD datazones performing well, very well or beyond the level in writing
There has been no new data on this indicator since the 2015 annual report, and the performance assessment and figures are therefore the same as reported previously.
The percentage of P7 pupils from the 30% most deprived datazones who performed well or very well in writing was 56.3% in 2014, compared to 60.9% in the baseline year (2012 - the first time this measure was collected).
The percentage of P7 pupils who performed well or very well in writing has been consistently lower among households in the 30% most deprived areas than those in the rest of Scotland.
⬌ Performance maintaining
Indicator 7.4 Mean Strengths and Difficulties score for children aged 4-12 from households in bottom three income deciles
The results of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire ( SDQ) are presented as a difficulty score on a range from zero to 40, with higher scores indicating higher risk of mental health and behavioural problems. A score up to 13 is considered normal. The average (mean) score for children aged 4-12 from households in the bottom three income deciles was 9.1 in 2014 and 2015 (combined), compared to 9.4 at the baseline (2008 and 2009 combined).
The average SDQ score has been consistently higher among households in the bottom three income deciles than those in the other seven.
⬌ Performance maintaining
Indicator 7.5 Percentage of adults from households with children in bottom three income deciles that are satisfied with local schools
This has been included to provide an overall proxy of school quality. In 2015, 86% of adults with children in their household in the bottom three income deciles were satisfied with local schools. The analysis excludes those who expressed no opinion. This compares to 91% in the baseline year (2012). There has been little change over time on this measure.
Adults from households (with children) in bottom three income deciles and those in the other seven income deciles have very similar levels of satisfaction with local schools. Each year since 2007 there has only been one or two percentage points of difference in satisfaction between the two groups.
⬌ Performance maintaining
Intermediate outcome 8: Children from low income backgrounds are in good quality, sustained employment in line with skills and ambitions
This outcome recognises the importance of work as a source of both income and life satisfaction and a major determinant of quality of life.
Indicator 8.1 Percentage of school leavers from 15% most deprived SIMD datazones who are in a positive destination approximately nine months after leaving school
86.1% of pupils from the 15% most deprived SIMD datazones, who left school during or at the end of the academic year 2014/15, were in learning, training or work in March 2016. This compares to 82.4% in the baseline year (2012/13). The percentage in positive destinations has increased steadily since 2010/11 [8] .
The percentage of school leavers in a positive destination has been consistently lower among households in the 15% most deprived areas than those in the rest of Scotland, though the gap has decreased over time.
⬆ Performance improving
Indicator 8.2 Percentage of 15 year olds from bottom third of family affluence scale who think they will be in positive destinations after leaving school
This is a measure of school children's aspirations, and looks at the expectations of 15 year olds for what they will do after leaving school. There has been no new data on this indicator since the 2015 annual report, and the performance assessment and figures are therefore the same as reported previously
In 2014, 86.6% of children from the least affluent third of households expected to be in positive destination (defined as being in work, skills training, an apprenticeship, or going to college or university), compared to 86.4% in 2010. There has been little change over the longer term.
⬌ Performance maintaining
Indicator 8.3 Number of Modern Apprenticeship starts
Modern Apprenticeships are one aspect of the availability of suitable work for young people. Indicators 8.3 and 8.4 should be used together.
There were 25,818 starts in 2015/16, just over 500 more than in the baseline year (2013/14) [9] . The number of young people starting Modern Apprenticeships decreased between 2007/08 and 2008/09, then increased substantially until 2011/12, and has been relatively stable since.
⬆ Performance improving
Indicator 8.4 Modern Apprenticeship completion rate
In 2015/16 the Modern Apprenticeship completion rate was 76%, compared to 77% in the baseline year (2013/14) [10] . This indicator has been fairly stable over time.
It should be noted that non-completion may be due to moves into another positive destination (such as higher level work or further education), and may not necessarily be indicative of a less favourable outcome for the person concerned.
⬌ Performance maintaining
Contact
Email: Alison Stout
There is a problem
Thanks for your feedback