Natural capital: economic benefits assessment
Outlines new economic analysis that quantifies the likely economic impacts, measured as output and jobs created, from hypothetical cross-sector regional and national programmes of natural capital investment in Scotland.
Appendix A
GFI study data extrapolation for Scotland
As time and region-specific data to calculate the finance gap was not always available to input into the GFI model in detail, it was usually necessary to adjust the raw data in some form. This entailed making certain assumptions where the data did not fit one of the three time horizons[36] (which it usually did not) or clear evidence for Scotland was unavailable or deemed insufficient. As England was the sole UK country to have released a strategic policy paper on environmental policy at the time, it was assumed that the government level targets within the 25 Year Environment Plan were broadly applicable to the other UK countries and Overseas Territories. Apart from this overarching assumption, some of the most common extrapolation methods for time and region (or other location-based assumption) in the GFI study appear below:
- That X (some variable being measured) is proportional to area, population, share of net emissions, etc. (especially when Scotland-specific figures were unavailable);
- That spending is constant over time (i.e. current spending is representative of future spending); and
- That historic spending is representative of current spending.
Detailed timing assumptions per nature-based activity
Table A.1 details the timing assumptions for each nature-related activity by providing individual time horizons for their relevant enabling mechanisms.
GFI outcomes |
Nature-related activities (and area of spend, if applicable) |
Timing assumptions |
---|---|---|
Clean water |
All clean water |
Increase in 6-10 years |
Protect and/or restore biodiversity |
Create/restore priority habitats outside protected sites |
From Year 1 |
Protected endangered species |
Increase in 6-10 years |
|
Increase species abundance |
Increase in 6-10 years |
|
Woodland creation and management |
From Year 1 |
|
Peatland restoration |
From Year 1 |
|
Increase the proportion of protected and well-managed seas |
Increase in 3-5 years |
|
Ensure populations of key marine species are sustainable |
Increase in 6-10 years |
|
Ensure seafloor habitats are healthy and sustainable (Protect and restore biodiversity (other)) |
Increase in 3-5 years |
|
Ensure seafloor habitats are healthy and sustainable (Marine offshore habitats, key marine species, seafloor habitats (this includes seagrass)) |
Increase beyond year 10 |
|
Achieve biodiversity net gain |
Increase in 6-10 years |
|
Scottish Government Nature Restoration Fund* |
From Year 1 |
|
Reduce flood risk |
Reduce risk of flooding through natural flood management |
Increase in 6-10 years |
Improve bio-resource efficiency |
Increase sustainability of fish stocks |
Increase in 6-10 years |
Sustainable soil management |
Increase in 3 years |
|
Improve access and engagement with natural environment |
Safeguard and enhance landscape features |
Increase in 10 years |
Climate mitigation through bio-carbon |
Climate mitigation through bio-carbon (Other carbon adaptation) |
Increase in 2 years |
Climate mitigation through bio-carbon (Hedgerow code) |
Increase in 3 years |
|
Climate mitigation through bio-carbon (Saltmarsh code) |
Increase in 6-10 years |
|
Enhance biosecurity |
All biosecurity |
Unknown |
Contact
Email: peter.phillips@gov.scot
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