Natural capital: economic benefits assessment

Outlines new economic analysis that quantifies the likely economic impacts, measured as output and jobs created, from hypothetical cross-sector regional and national programmes of natural capital investment in Scotland.


Appendix A

GFI study data extrapolation for Scotland

As time and region-specific data to calculate the finance gap was not always available to input into the GFI model in detail, it was usually necessary to adjust the raw data in some form. This entailed making certain assumptions where the data did not fit one of the three time horizons[36] (which it usually did not) or clear evidence for Scotland was unavailable or deemed insufficient. As England was the sole UK country to have released a strategic policy paper on environmental policy at the time, it was assumed that the government level targets within the 25 Year Environment Plan were broadly applicable to the other UK countries and Overseas Territories. Apart from this overarching assumption, some of the most common extrapolation methods for time and region (or other location-based assumption) in the GFI study appear below:

  • That X (some variable being measured) is proportional to area, population, share of net emissions, etc. (especially when Scotland-specific figures were unavailable);
  • That spending is constant over time (i.e. current spending is representative of future spending); and
  • That historic spending is representative of current spending.

Detailed timing assumptions per nature-based activity

Table A.1 details the timing assumptions for each nature-related activity by providing individual time horizons for their relevant enabling mechanisms.

Table A.1: Nature-related activities and timing assumptions by GFI outcome

GFI outcomes

Nature-related activities (and area of spend, if applicable)

Timing assumptions

Clean water

All clean water

Increase in 6-10 years

Protect and/or restore biodiversity

Create/restore priority habitats outside protected sites

From Year 1

Protected endangered species

Increase in 6-10 years

Increase species abundance

Increase in 6-10 years

Woodland creation and management

From Year 1

Peatland restoration

From Year 1

Increase the proportion of protected and well-managed seas

Increase in 3-5 years

Ensure populations of key marine species are sustainable

Increase in 6-10 years

Ensure seafloor habitats are healthy and sustainable (Protect and restore biodiversity (other))

Increase in 3-5 years

Ensure seafloor habitats are healthy and sustainable (Marine offshore habitats, key marine species, seafloor habitats (this includes seagrass))

Increase beyond year 10

Achieve biodiversity net gain

Increase in 6-10 years

Scottish Government Nature Restoration Fund*

From Year 1

Reduce flood risk

Reduce risk of flooding through natural flood management

Increase in 6-10 years

Improve bio-resource efficiency

Increase sustainability of fish stocks

Increase in 6-10 years

Sustainable soil management

Increase in 3 years

Improve access and engagement with natural environment

Safeguard and enhance landscape features

Increase in 10 years

Climate mitigation through bio-carbon

Climate mitigation through bio-carbon (Other carbon adaptation)

Increase in 2 years

Climate mitigation through bio-carbon (Hedgerow code)

Increase in 3 years

Climate mitigation through bio-carbon (Saltmarsh code)

Increase in 6-10 years

Enhance biosecurity

All biosecurity

Unknown

Contact

Email: peter.phillips@gov.scot

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