Air Departure Tax reduction in Scotland: noise impact assessment

Appendix B. Forecast Air Traffic Movements

B.1. Forecast Changes at Aberdeen Airport

B.1.1. The majority of passengers from the 2017 baseline scenario at Aberdeen Airport are associated with UK scheduled operators (approximately 62%). Approximately 28% of passengers are from EU operators, with the remaining 10% split between overseas operators and UK charter operators. A minor amount of passengers (less than 1%) are attributed to EU charter operators. The total number of Air Traffic Movements (ATMs) for the 2017 baseline scenario is approximately 179 ATMs per day.

B.1.2. The natural growth in passenger numbers (assuming no changes in ADT) is forecast to see Aberdeen Airport increase from 2.94 million passengers per annum (mppa) in 2017 to 3.05 mppa in 2022, with a split between operators approximately equivalent to the 2017 baseline scenario. The overall increase in passengers has been calculated to be equivalent to an increase in daily ATMs of approximately 6.3.

B.1.3. Scenario 1a forecasts an increase in annual passengers from the 2022 baseline scenario of approximately 81,000 mppa, with a split between operators approximately equivalent to the 2022 baseline scenario. The overall increase in passengers for Scenario 1a equates to an increase in daily ATMs from the 2022 baseline scenario of 4.6.

B.1.4. Scenario 1c forecasts an increase in annual passengers from the 2022 baseline scenario of approximately 89,000 mppa. The majority of additional passengers are assigned to scheduled UK operators with a smaller amount assigned to UK charter operators; however, due to the high number of scheduled UK operator flights, the increase in passengers is approximately 4% whereas the increase in UK charter operator passengers is approximately 9%. The increase overall in passengers for Scenario 1c equates to an increase in daily ATMs from the 2022 baseline scenario of 6.7.

B.1.5. Scenario 2a forecasts an increase in annual passengers from the 2022 baseline scenario of approximately 21,000 mppa. The majority of additional passengers are assigned to scheduled UK operators with a smaller amount assigned to scheduled overseas operators and a minor amount assigned to scheduled EU operators. The increase in UK scheduled operator passengers is approximately 1% whereas the increase in overseas scheduled operator passengers is approximately 4%. The overall increase in passengers for Scenario 2a equates to an increase in daily ATMs from the 2022 baseline scenario of 1.0.

B.1.6. Scenario 2c forecasts an increase in annual passengers from the 2022 baseline scenario of approximately 93,000 mppa. The majority of additional passengers are assigned to scheduled UK operators with a smaller amount assigned to scheduled overseas operators and a minor amount assigned to scheduled EU operators. The increase in UK scheduled operator passengers is approximately 3% whereas the increase in overseas scheduled operator passengers is approximately 24%. The overall increase in passengers for Scenario 2c equates to an increase in daily ATMs from the 2022 baseline scenario of 4.4.

B.1.7. Scenario 3a forecasts an increase in annual passengers from the 2022 baseline scenario of approximately 51,000 mppa. The additional passengers are mostly assigned to scheduled UK and EU operators with a minor amount of passengers shared between scheduled overseas, and UK and EU charter operators. These changes are equivalent to an increase in passengers of approximately 1-2% for all aircraft operator categories. The overall increase in passengers for Scenario 3a equates to an increase in daily ATMs from the 2022 baseline scenario of 2.8.

B.1.8. Scenario 3c forecasts an increase in annual passengers from the 2022 baseline scenario of approximately 104,000 mppa. The additional passengers are mostly assigned to scheduled UK operators with moderate amounts of passengers assigned to overseas scheduled and UK charter operators. The percentage increase in passengers for each operator category is most notable in the UK charter category, which increases by approximately 14%. Other categories increase by approximately 4-5% with the exception of EU scheduled operators, which do not increase. The overall increase in passengers for Scenario 3c equates to an increase in daily ATMs from the 2022 baseline scenario of 6.3.

B.1.9. The daily averages of ATMs per aircraft variant for each scenario at Aberdeen Airport are presented in Table 1. In addition to ATM data, Table 1 also presents the estimated stage length for each aircraft variant along with the associated aircraft type for each variant that was used to distribute passenger forecasts onto aircraft.