Attainment Scotland Fund evaluation: National Improvement Framework - attainment and health and wellbeing measures
Summarises evidence around improvement in attainment and health and wellbeing, and the gap between pupils from the most and least deprived areas. It is an initial key output from the new Attainment Scotland Fund (ASF) evaluation strategy and forms part of the overall body of evidence for the evaluation.
Section 2
Attainment Measures
Achievement of Curriculum for Excellence[3]
Primary School Attainment
The attainment of primary pupils (P1, P4 and P7 pupils combined) in literacy and numeracy is outlined below, based on analysis of Achievement of Curriculum for Excellence (CfE) Levels 2021/22 data. Achievement of Curriculum for Excellence Levels (ACEL) data in primary schools previously showed that the proportion of pupils achieving expected levels in both literacy and numeracy increased steadily from 2016/17 before decreasing in 2020/21. The period of COVID-19 related school building closures undoubtedly impacted with the figures decreasing and the gap between pupils from most and least deprived areas widening.
In 2021/22, primary pupils from the least deprived areas performed better than pupils from the most deprived areas. The gap between the proportion of primary pupils from the most and least deprived areas who achieved their expected level in literacy narrowed compared with 2020/21 and is now similar to those seen before the COVID-19 pandemic.
The gap between the proportion of primary pupils (P1, P4 and P7 combined) from the most and least deprived areas who achieved their expected level in literacy decreased from 24.7 percentage points in 2020/21 to 21.3 percentage points in 2021/22. The attainment gap on this measure narrowed for 19 local authorities and widened for 10.[4] Between 2020/21 and 2021/22 the proportion who achieved their expected level in literacy increased more for pupils from the most deprived areas which has led to a narrowing of the gap.
For numeracy, the attainment gap between pupils from the most and least deprived areas decreased from 21.4 percentage points in 2020/21 to 17.8 percentage points in 2021/22 - similar to the gap seen in 2016/17 (17.6pp). The gap narrowed for 21 local authorities and widened for eight between 2020/21 to 2021/22.[5]
Secondary School Attainment
In 2021/22, for both pupils from the most and least deprived areas, the proportion of S3 pupils who achieved Third level or better is lower than in 2018/19 (the last comparable data point). In 2021/22, the gap between the proportion of S3 pupils from the most and least deprived areas who achieved their expected level in literacy widened to 16.3 percentage points from 13.8 percentage points in 2018/19. The attainment gap narrowed for 9 local authorities and widened for 10 between 2018/19 and 2021/22.[6] Whilst the percentage of S3 pupils achieving the expected level in literacy fell for pupils from both the most and least deprived areas, the decrease was larger for those from the most deprived areas.
The gap between the proportion of S3 pupils from the most and least deprived areas who achieved their expected level in numeracy widened to 15 percentage points in 2021/22, from 13.5 percentage points in 2018/19. The attainment gap narrowed for 10 local authorities and widened for 9 local authorities. [7] 2021/22 figures are similar to 2016/17 figures (14.9 percentage points).
Initial Positive Destinations Measure[8]
This measure provides information on the outcomes for young people approximately three months after the end of the academic year (the 1st Monday in October). Positive destination includes higher education, further education, training, employment, voluntary work and Personal Skills Development.
The data shows that in 2021/22 95.7 % of all school leavers were in a positive initial destination, up from 95.5 % in 2020/21.
The gap in the proportion of school leavers in a positive destination has generally been narrowing each year since 2015/16 and in 2021/22 is 4.4 percentage points compared with 7.9 percentage points in 2015/16. While the percentage of school leavers in an initial positive destination has generally been increasing for those from both the most and least deprived areas, the increase has been greater for those from the most deprived areas.
Between 2020/21 and 2021/22 the gap narrowed from 4.8 percentage points to 4.4 percentage points – the smallest gap since consistent records began (2009/10). The gap increased more amongst leavers from the most deprived areas than it did amongst those from the least deprived areas. The gap narrowed for 6 local authorities and widened for 4.[9]
School leaver attainment: percentage of school leavers achieving awards by Scottish Credit and Qualifications Framework (SCQF) level 4, 5, 6 or better[10]
The measure of attainment of school leavers in Scotland is based on the Summary Statistics for Attainment and Initial Leaver Destinations publication which presents attainment in National Qualifications (Nationals, Highers, Advanced Highers). The COVID-19 pandemic led to changes to the way in which results in these qualifications were determined and so care should be taken when interperting attainment figures for 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22.
School leaver attainment data between 2015/16 and 2021/22 shows a small decrease in the gap for pupils leaving school with 1 or more qualifications at SCQF Level 4[11] or better from 6.1 percentage points in 2015/16 to 5.8 percentage points in 2021/22. Between 2020/21 and 2021/22 the gap narrowed from 6.3 to 5.8 percentage points. This narrowing is due to an increase in the proportion of leavers from the most deprived areas who attained a pass at this level.
At SCQF level 5 or better the gap has reduced slightly over the period 2015/16 to 2021/22, from 20.3 percentage points in 2015/16 to 19.1 percentage points in 2021/22. However the gap widened between 2020/21 to 2021/22 from 18.2 percentage points to 19.1 percentage points. Whilst the proportion attaining 1 pass or more at SCQF Level 5 or better decreased for school leavers from both the most and the least deprived areas between 2020/21 and 2021/22, it decreased by more for those from the most deprived areas, which has led to a widening of the gap. The attainment gap narrowed for 10 local authorities and widened for 8. [12]
For pupils who left school with 1 or more qualification at SCQF Level 6 or better, the gap narrowed between 2015/16 and 2021/22, from 38.5 percentage points to 37.0 percentage points. Between 2015/16 and 2021/22 the percentage of pupils from the most deprived areas achieving 1 or more passes at SCQF Level 6 increased whilst the proportion amongst those from the least deprived areas decreased very slightly. Between 2020/21 to 2021/22 the attainment gap widened from 34.4 percentage points to 37 percentage points. Over the same period the attainment gap narrowed for 9 local authorities and widened for 19. [13]
Annual Participation Measure (APM)[14]
When considering the APM as a measure in the ASF Evaluation it is important to note that the APM is measured from 1st April - 31st March annually, as opposed to the academic year considered in the ASF Evaluation. As such, the figures are not considered across a directly comparable time period.
The proportion of 16-19 year olds participating in education, training or employment was 92.4 % in 2022. This represents an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to 92.2% in 2021 and is the highest rate since the inception of the APM. Previous figures showed a slight increase year on year with the exception of 2019.
In the 2022 participation measure, those who live in the most deprived areas remain less likely to be participating than those from the least deprived. However the participation gap between those who live in the 20% most deprived areas and those in the 20% least deprived areas continues to show a narrowing of the gap. There was a 0.3pp increase in participation between 2021 and 2022 for those living in the most deprived areas. Between 2021 and 2022 the proportion of 16-19 year olds in the most and least deprived areas remained at 9.3 percentage points. The attainment gap narrowed for 14 local authorities and widened for 14.[15]
The participation measure shows the gap between the proportion of 16-19 year olds in the most and least deprived areas participating in education, training, and employment has steadily decreased from 12.9 percentage points in 2016 to 9.3 percentage points in 2022. This is largely driven by an increase in the proportion of 16-19 year olds from the most deprived areas participating in education, training and employment from 83.3% in 2016 to 87.4% in 2022. Over the same period the percentage of 16-19 year olds from the least deprived areas participating in education, training or employment has largely remained the same, ranging from 96.2% in 2016 to 96.7% in 2022.
Health and Wellbeing Measures
Attendance Rates[16]
Information on attendance at schools is collected on a biennial basis. Children's ability to attend school was impacted throughout the COVID-19 pandemic and this should be borne in mind when interpreting attendance rates. The 2020/21 data shows that school attendance rates have fallen slightly compared with 2018/19. The gap between pupils from the most and least deprived areas showed a pattern of widening pre pandemic. While the attendance rates decreased for pupils from both the most and least deprived areas, the decrease was larger for those from the most deprived areas. In 2020/21, the gap in attendance rates between children living in the most and least deprived areas of Scotland was 6.3 percentage points. This compares with 4.9 percentage points in 2018/19.
The gap in attendance rates was more prominent in secondary schools than primary schools. In both primary and secondary schools the gap in attendance rates increased over time. The attendance of primary school pupils from least deprived areas was fairly stable over time.
For primary school pupils the gap in attendance rates increased between 2018/19 to 2020/21 from 4 percentage points to 5.5 percentage points. The gap narrowed for 1 local authority and widened for 23 over the same time period. Similarily for secondary schools the gap widened from 6.6 percentage points in 2018/19 to 7.7 percentage points in 2020/21. The gap narrowed for 8 local authorities and widened for 21 indicating a pattern of a widening attendance gap across local authorities but not universal with variation at the local authority level.[17]
Health and Wellbeing
For health and wellbeing data, the Total Difficulties Score and the Mental Wellbeing score (SALSUS/WEMWBS) has been considered in previous evaluation reports to assess progress. The last available data was collected in 2018, and was reported on in the ASF Year 5 Report (2019/20).
Going forward, the Health and Wellbeing Census will be utilised in the ASF Evaluation to assess progress towards closing the poverty related health and wellbeing gap. The results from the first Health and Wellbeing Census 2021/22 were published in February 2023, focusing on the indicators included in the key existing frameworks, and includes the previously published measures. Local authority tables will be published in May 2023 providing further detail at local authority level on the published measures. The data are the aggregated results for the 16 local authorities who collected data. This is the first large scale health and wellbeing dataset in Scotland available for data linkage for P5 – S6 children and young people, bringing together data across the wellbeing SHANARRI[18] indicators.
Further analysis will be explored, analysing key topics, in future ASF Evaluation reporting.
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