Attainment Scotland Fund Evaluation: Reporting on National Improvement Framework Attainment and Health and Wellbeing Measures, 2024

Section 2: Attainment Measures

Achievement of Curriculum for Excellence^[2]

Primary School Attainment

The attainment of primary pupils (P1, P4 and P7 pupils combined) in literacy and numeracy is outlined below, based on analysis of Achievement of Curriculum for Excellence (CfE) Levels 2022/23 data.

The percentage of primary school pupils achieving the expected CfE levels in 2022/23 was higher than in 2021/22, for all primary school stages and across all the organisers. These figures suggest further recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic and for a number of organisers and stages the proportions of primary school pupils achieving the expected levels have risen above those of 2018/19 which was the last data collected before the pandemic began.

In 2022/23, primary pupils from the least deprived areas performed better than pupils from the most deprived areas. The gap between the proportion of primary pupils from the most and least deprived areas who achieved their expected level in literacy narrowed compared with 2021/22 and is now similar to those seen before the COVID-19 pandemic. The attainment gap between pupils from the most and least deprived areas narrowed from 21.3 percentage points in 2021/22 to 20.5 percentage points in 2022/23. This is very slightly narrower than in 2018/19 (20.7 percentage points) and narrower than in 2017/18 (21.6pp) or 2016/17 (22.1pp).

The gap between the proportion of primary school pupils (P1, P4 and P7 combined) from the most and least deprived areas who achieved their expected level in numeracy narrowed from 17.8 percentage points in 2021/22 to 17.0 percentage points in 2022/23 – slightly wider than in 2018/19 (16.8pp).

Secondary School Attainment

The proportion of S3 pupils who achieved Third Level or better in literacy remained broadly stable between 2016/17 and 2018/19, for pupils from both the most and the least deprived areas. The proportions then decreased for both groups in 2021/22, falling by more for pupils from the most deprived areas. In 2022/23 they have returned to around the levels seen prior to the pandemic for both groups.

In 2022/23, the gap between the proportion of S3 pupils from the most and least deprived areas who achieved their expected level in literacy has narrowed from 16.3 percentage points in 2021/22 to 13.7 percentage points. This is similar to the level seen in 2018/19.

The S3 pupils’ attainment gap for Third Level or better in numeracy narrowed from 14.9 percentage points in 2016/17 to 14.0 percentage points in 2017/18 and to 13.5 percentage points in 2018/19. The gap then narrowed to 13.6 percentage points in 2022/23, from 15.0 percentage points in 2021/22 – Showing similar levels to what was seen in 2018/19.

Initial Positive Destinations Measure^[3]

This measure provides information on the outcomes for young people approximately three months after the end of the academic year (the 1st Monday in October). Positive destination includes higher education, further education, training, employment, voluntary work and Personal Skills Development.

The data shows that in 2022/23 95.9 % of all school leavers were in a positive initial destination, up from 95.7 % in 2021/22. The gap between leavers from the most deprived and least deprived areas in a positive initial destination was 3.7pp 2022/23. This has narrowed from 4.4pp in 2021/22.

The gap in the proportion of school leavers in a positive destination has generally been narrowing each year since 2015/16 and in 2022/23 is 3.7 percentage points compared with 7.9 percentage points in 2015/16. This is the smallest gap since consistent records began (2009/10). While the percentage of school leavers in an initial positive destination has generally been increasing for those from both the most and least deprived areas, the increase has been greater for those from the most deprived areas.

School leaver attainment – National Qualifications Only: Percentage of school leavers achieving awards by Scottish Credit and Qualifications Framework (SCQF) level 4, 5, 6 or better^[4]

The measure of attainment^[5] of school leavers in Scotland is based on the Summary Statistics for Attainment and Initial Leaver Destinations publication which presents attainment in National Qualifications (Nationals, Highers, Advanced Highers). The COVID-19 pandemic led to changes to the way in which results in these qualifications were determined and so care should be taken when interperting attainment figures for 2019/20, 2020/21, 2021/22 and 2022/23.

School leaver attainment data between 2015/16 and 2022/23 shows a small decrease in the gap for pupils from the most and least deprived areas leaving school with 1 or more qualifications at SCQF Level 4 or better from 6.1 percentage points in 2015/16 to 5.9 percentage points in 2022/23. Longer term, the gap at SCQF Level 4 or better has narrowed most years. Between 2021/22 and 2022/23 the gap slightly widened from 5.8 to 5.9 percentage points. The proportion attaining 1 pass or more in National Qualifications at this level decreased for school leavers from both the most and the least deprived areas between 2021/22 and 2022/23. But it decreased by slightly more for those from the most deprived areas, which has led to the gap between the two groups widening.

At SCQF level 5 or better the gap has reduced slightly over the period 2015/16 to 2022/23, from 20.3 percentage points in 2015/16 to 20.2 percentage points in 2022/23. However the gap widened between 2021/22 to 2022/23 from 19.1 percentage points to 20.2 percentage points. The proportion attaining 1 pass or more in National Qualifications at this level decreased for school leavers from both the most and the least deprived areas between 2021/22 and 2022/23. But it decreased by slightly more for those from the most deprived areas, which has led to the gap between the two groups widening.

The gap in the proportion of pupils who left school with 1 or more qualification at SCQF Level 6 or better, narrowed between 2015/16 and 2022/23, from 38.5 percentage points to 36.9 percentage points. The gap narrowed slightly between 2021/22 from 37.0 percentage points to 36.9 percentage points in 2022/23. The proportion attaining 1 pass or more in National Qualifications decreased for school leavers from both the most and the least deprived areas between 2021/22 and 2022/23. But it decreased by more for those from the least deprived areas, which has led to the gap between the two groups narrowing.

Annual Participation Measure (APM)^[6]

When considering the APM as a measure in the ASF Evaluation it is important to note that the APM is measured from 1st April - 31st March annually, as opposed to the academic year considered in the ASF Evaluation. As such, the figures are not considered across a directly comparable time period.

The proportion of 16-19 year olds participating in education, training or employment was 94.3 % in 2023. This represents an increase of 1.9 percentage points compared to 92.4% in 2022 and is the highest rate since the inception of the APM. Previous figures showed a slight increase year on year with the exception of 2019.

The participation measure shows the gap between the proportion of 16-19 year olds in the most and least deprived areas participating in education, training, and employment has steadily decreased from 12.9 percentage points in 2016 to 8.3 percentage points in 2023. This is driven by an increase in the proportion of 16–19-year-olds from the most deprived areas participating in education, training, and employment from 83.3% in 2016/17 to 89.6% in 2023. Over the same period the percentage of 16–19-year-olds from the least deprived areas participating in education, training or employment has remained broadly similar, ranging from 96.2% in 2016 to 97.9% in 2023.

Health and Wellbeing Measures

Attendance Rates ^[7]

Information on attendance at schools is collected on a biennial basis. Children’s ability to attend school was impacted throughout the COVID-19 pandemic and this should be borne in mind when interpreting attendance rates over the years. The 2022/23 data shows that school attendance rates have fallen compared with 2020/21. This continues a trend for small decreases in attendance rates since 2016/17.

The gap between pupils from the most and least deprived areas showed a pattern of widening pre pandemic. While the attendance rates decreased for pupils from both the most and least deprived areas, the decrease was slightly larger for those from the most deprived areas.

The overall attendance rate in 2022/23 was 90.2%, compared with 93.3% in 2016/17 and 92.0% in 2020/21. In 2022/23, the gap in attendance rates between children living in the most and least deprived areas of Scotland was 6.7 percentage points. This compares with 4.7 percentage points in 2016/17.

The gap in attendance rates was more prominent in secondary schools than primary schools. In both primary and secondary schools the gap in attendance rates increased over time. The attendance of primary school pupils from least deprived areas was fairly stable over time.

For primary school pupils the gap in attendance rates increased between 2020/21 to 2022/23 from 5.5 percentage points to 5.7 percentage points. Similarly for secondary schools the gap widened from 7.7 percentage points in 2020/21 to 8.2 percentage points in 2022/23.

27-30 month review (children no concerns across all domains)^[8]

The 27- 30-month review is completed at around 27-30 months of age and is carried out by members of staff within NHS Health Visiting Teams. Data has been collected since 2013. An Ages and Stages questionnaire is carried out which reviews the 5 main areas of child development: Communication and language, gross motor skills, fine motor skills, problem solving and personal and social development.

In 2021/22, latest statistics show the gap between children living in the most and least deprived areas of Scotland decreased from 12.2 percentage points in 2020/21 to 11.7 percentage points in 2021/22. In 2021/22 the gap is smaller than in the pre-pandemic years.

The percentage of eligible children with identified developmental concerns has increased in 2021/22 compared with 2020/21, and this increase was seen for both the most and least deprived. There has also been a small decrease in the percentage of eligible children aged 27-30 months reviewed. The percentage of eligible children reviewed decreased from 91.0% in 2020/21 to 89.4% in 2021/22. Over the same period the percentage of children reviewed and recording no concerns decreased from 68.45% to 65.5%. Speech, language and communication is the most frequent developmental domain in which concerns are noted at this review.

Health and Wellbeing Data

For health and wellbeing data, the Total Difficulties Score and the Mental Wellbeing score (SALSUS/WEMWBS) has been used in previous evaluation reports to assess progress. The last available data for the Children total difficulties score (age 4-12) was collected in 2018, and was reported on in the ASF Year 5 Report (2019/20).

Children total difficulties score (age 13 and 15) was reported on in the 2021/22 the Health and Wellbeing (HWB)^[9] Census which recorded 43% of 13- and 15-year-olds with a borderline or abnormal total difficulties score. The gap between children from the most deprived and least deprived areas was 13 percentage points, with 50% of 13- and 15-year-olds from the most deprived areas reporting borderline or abnormal total difficulties scores compared with 37% of those from the least deprived areas.

Further analysis of the Health and Wellbeing Census has been explored, including analysis of key topics, in the companian Summary of Wider Evidence on the Poverty Related Attainment Gap Report.