Attainment Scotland Fund Evaluation: Reporting on National Improvement Framework Attainment and Health and Wellbeing Measures, 2024

Section 3: Attainment by socio-economic status and other characteristics^[10]

Additional granular analysis is considered at the national level which was a recommendation from the Impact Feability Study carried out in 2023. Initial exploration of attainment linked to socio economic status and other characteristics is therefore included.

Whilst we know from evidence that the relative deprivation that children experience impacts on their level of attainment, other characteristics may also affect attainment. Analysis of attainment by pupil characteristics such as sex, ethnicity, stage of leaving and whether the pupil has an Additional Support Need is available for some of the NIF core measures.

These include:

• ACEL attainment,
• Positive Initial Destinations,
• and School Leaver Attainment at SCQF Levels 4 or better to 6 or better.

Broad patterns in attainment by pupil characteristic are typically stable year on year, although small numbers in some characteristic groups (e.g. for ethnicity) mean fluctuations do occur year on year.

The latest available data show:

Across the measures of attainment and destination analysed, female pupils usually have higher levels of attainment than male pupils. The exception is in the proportion of primary pupils attaining the expected CfE levels for Numeracy, where in some years the percentage is the same for both males and females. The gap between the two sexes in achievement of CfE levels is typically larger in Literacy than in Numeracy. For example, in 2022/23, 78 per cent of female primary pupils achieved the expected level of Literacy, compared to 68 per cent of male pupils, a gap of 10 percentage points. While 80 per cent of female pupils achieved the expected level of Numeracy compared to 79 per cent of male pupils, a gap of 1 percentage point.

Where attainment is analysed by ethnicity, those pupils that identify their ethnicity as Asian: Chinese and Asian: Indian often have higher levels of attainment compared to other groups. Among 2022/23 school leavers, 91.3 per cent of Asian: Chinese pupils and 83.3 per cent of Asian: Indian pupils achieved one pass or more at SCQF Level 6 or better, compared to 56.4 per cent of white Scottish pupils. Pupils who are recorded as Asian: Pakistani, Asian: Other, African/Black/Caribbean or as Mixed or Multiple Ethnic Groups also tend to have higher attainment across the various measures than pupils who are White: Scottish or White: non-Scottish. However, this pattern is less obvious in achievement of CfE levels at primary stage. Pupils who are White: Scottish or White: non-Scottish sometimes have higher attainment than these other groups, although their attainment is consistently lower than Asian: Chinese and Asian: Indian pupils.

Across the NIF measures considered, pupils with a recorded Additional Support Need (ASN) are less likely to achieve than pupils without a recorded ASN. For school leavers’ attainment, the gap is wider at higher SCQF Levels. At SCQF Level 6 or better, 40.9 per cent of 2022/23 leavers with a recorded ASN left with one pass or more, compared to 70.1 per cent of leavers without a recorded ASN. While at SCQF Level 4 or better, 92.5 per cent of leavers with a recorded ASN left with one pass or more, compared to 98.5 per cent of leavers without a recorded ASN.

Geographically, there is some variation depending on which measure is considered. However, across all measures analysed, pupils from Remote Small Towns typically have the lowest attainment and are also the least likely to be in a positive initial destination. Those from areas classed as Rural (Accessible Rural and/or Remote Rural) often have higher attainment and be more likely to be in a positive initial destination.

Attainment for looked after children^[11] was higher in 2022/23 than in previous years, but there were still large gaps compared to all pupils. In 2022/23 a lower proportion of looked after children achieved the CfE level relevant to their stage compared with all pupils, and they also had lower attainment than all pupils at all SCQF levels and were less likely to be in a positive destination. Children looked after within the last year are also around two and a half times more likely to leave school in S4. Those who were in foster care or with friends or relatives had higher attainment than other placement types, especially at home with parents.^[12]

Stage of leaving school: a minority - 14.4 per cent - of young people chose to leave school at the end of S4 in 2022/23. Of these, 92.7 per cent were in a positive initial destination. This compares to 93.7 per cent of S5 leavers and 97.7 per cent of S6 leavers. The proportion of S4 leavers in a positive initial destination has increased almost every year since 2017/18 (except for 2019/20, likely due to Covid), however it still remains below the proportions of S5 and S6 leavers in positive initial destinations.

It is important to note that these analyses do not consider the intersectionality of characteristics. For example, if male pupils are more likely than female pupils to have an Additional Support Need, this could be a possible reason for male pupils typically having lower attainment than female pupils.

There may also be links between deprivation and the other characteristics analysed here. An Education Scotland briefing on poverty & gender inequality states “Children and young people with ASN are disproportionately impacted by poverty.”^[13], and the Scottish Government’s 2023 pupil census^[14] reports larger numbers of pupils with a recorded ASN in more deprived areas than in less deprived ones. Further analysis would be needed to better understand these intersectionalities, and the relative impacts of each characteristic on children and young people’s attainment.