Attainment Scotland Fund Evaluation: Reporting on National Improvement Framework Attainment and Health and Wellbeing Measures, 2024

Section 4: Conclusion and Discussion

The ASF Evaluation aims to provide learning about the overall implementation of the ASF and the extent to which the aims of the Fund are being met in terms of closing the poverty-related attainment gap. Specifically the analysis of quantative measures for attainment and health and wellbeing seeks to assess to what extent the fund contributed to a closing of the attainment gap between the most and least socio-economically disadvantaged children and young people.

A broad basket of core NIF attainment and health and wellbeing measures is used to assess progress and analysis of these measures is triangulated with other key Evaluation evidence.

The analysis presented in this report indicates at a national level between 2015/16 and 2022/23 that on the majority of the core measures there is positive progress in closing the attainment gap. Of the 11 measures considered in this report where there is available, comparable data, the gap has narrowed in 9 measures between 2015/16 and 2022/23.^[15]

We know that the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic are long lasting and the ongoing cost of living crisis has deepened inequity, however at the national level there are continued indications of progress with the 2022/23 ACEL data showing that the percentage of pupils achieving the expected CfE Level has increased in 2022/23 across all organisers and stages compared to 2021/22. For P1, P4 and P7 combined both literacy and numeracy have risen slightly above 2018/19 levels.

The measures around initial destinations and participation continue to show consistent progress at the national level, with the poverty-related gap narrowing and young people from the most deprived areas more likely to be participating and in a positive destination than in the past. In 2022/23 the poverty-related gap for positive initial destinations shows the smallest gap since consistent records began - a gap of 3.7 percentage points, down from 4.4 percentage points in 2021/22 and the narrowest since consistent records began in 2009/10. This gap has reduced by almost three-quarters compared to 2009/10. These figures were affected by the impact of the pandemic, but have recovered and moved beyond pre-pandemic levels.

The 27-30 month Review data also shows progress with the latest available statistics, in 2021/22 showing that the gap between children living in the most and least deprived areas of Scotland decreased from 12.2 percentage points in 2020/21 to 11.7 percentage points in 2021/22. In 2021/22 the gap is smaller than in the pre-pandemic years.

School leaver attainment in national qualifications at SCQF levels 4-6 or better show more mixed progress, with the gap widening slightly for SCQF level 4 and 5 or better and narrowing very slightly at SCQF level 6 or better between 2021/22 and 2022/23. Over a longer period, since 2015/16, the gaps for SCQF levels 4-6 or better have narrowed although for SCQF levels 4 and 5 or better the change over this period has been small and most of the progress was made before 2015/16.

Attendance in both primary and secondary sectors has decreased since 2014/15, alongside a widening of the gap in attendance between school pupils from the most deprived and least deprived areas. There was a trend in reducing attendance prior to 2020. Issues with attendance rates are not confined to Scotland and the Scottish Government is committed to ensuring that we are doing everything necessary to keep children and young people engaged in their education.^[16]

Additional granular analysis carried out at the national level considers attainment linked to socio economic status and other characteristics across a number of key measures. Whilst we know from evidence that the relative deprivation that children experience impacts on their level of attainment, other characteristics are also linked to attainment. For example data shows that across several key measures female pupils usually have higher attainment than male pupils. In addition, across the measures considered, pupils with a recorded Additional Support Need (ASN) achieve lower levels of attainment than pupils without a recorded ASN, across all measures analysed. Pupils from Remote Small Towns typically have the lowest attainment and are also the least likely to be in a positive initial destination. Whilst providing an additional level of understanding it should be noted that these analyses do not consider the intersectionality of characteristics and further analysis would be needed to better understand these intersectionalities, and the relative impacts of each characteristic on children and young people’s attainment.

While the measures summarised above are key indicators of progress, analysis of quantitative data will continue to be supplemented with other evaluation evidence to provide a broad understanding of the progress being made. This includes consideration of activities at the school, local, regional and national level to support children and young people.

The Evaluation will continue to gather evidence as the Scottish Government and Education Scotland support their local authority partners to make progress towards achieving stretch aims for raising attainment and closing the poverty related attainment gap. Intelligence provided by the stretch aims, alongside a range of other sources of data, including evaluation evidence, will inform the Scottish Government’s ongoing support and challenge to drive progress. Other key actions going forward include a programme of sampling Pupil Equity Fund plans and approaches across schools, providing intelligence and opportunities to share learning. The views of children and young people will help inform and shape our work, through activities in schools and with other partners.