Attainment Scotland Fund Evaluation: Reporting on National Improvement Framework Attainment and Health and Wellbeing Measures, 2024

Footnotes

1 27–30 month review has not previously featured in the ASF Evaluation given the focus of the ASF Funding being on school age children. Inclusion of this measure was considered in the impact feasibility work strand, and it was agreed to include it in the ASF Evaluation basket of measures as it has been a key NIF indicator since the start.

2 From 2018/19 it was decided that ACEL statistics would no longer be labelled as Experimental Statistics. The factors that led to the removal of the experimental label can be found in a paper available here. The robustness and consistency of these statistics increased over time. This should be kept in mind when making comparisons between years.

The ACEL collection and publication was cancelled in 2019/20 due to the difficulties in collecting data whilst schools were closed due to COVID-19.

The 2020/21 ACEL publication covers Primary school children (P1, P4 and P7) only. Secondary school and special school data was not collected due to other pressures on these schools including implementation of the SQA National Qualifications Alternative Certification Model which was used to award National 5s, Highers and Advanced Highers in 2021. The time period covered by the 2020/21 statistics means that the results will be affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. This should be kept in mind when making comparisons between years.

3 The time series includes years where school leaver destinations have been affected – either directly or indirectly – by the COVID-19 pandemic. The impacts of COVID-19 should therefore be kept in mind when considering changes over time in school leavers’ destinations. The greatest effect of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on school leaver destinations is likely to have been seen in 2019/20 although it is likely that there has been some ongoing impact on the destinations of some 2020/21 and 2021/22 school leavers.

4 When considering the school leaver attainment data, it is important to be aware that the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic led to the cancellation of 2020 and 2021 National 5 (SCQF Level 5), Higher (SCQF Level 6) and Advanced Higher (SCQF Level 7) exams and alternative approaches were taken to determining grades. In 2020 grades were determined based on teacher estimates. In 2021 teachers and lecturers used their professional judgement of a learner’s demonstrated attainment to determine results in line with subject-specific guidance. In 2022, there was a return to the use of exams. These were supported by a package of measures such as course modifications and revision support, which were designed to address the ongoing disruption to learning and teaching which young people had experienced, while maintaining standards. In addition, a more generous approach to grading was adopted to help ensure fairness for learners. The approaches taken to determining results in 2020 and 2021 saw pass rates in National Qualifications increase. The approach taken in 2022 resulted in pass rates decreasing from those levels, although they remained higher than pre-pandemic levels. In addition, care should also be taken when comparing the attainment of 2019/20, 2020/21, 2021/22 and 2022/23 school leavers. Interpretation of changes must take full account of the different certification methods used in different years, and changes in the attainment levels in 2019/20 and 2020/21 should not be seen as an indication that performance has improved or worsened, without further evidence.

5 Attainment in this section relates to the passes in National Qualifications such as National 4, National 5, Higher and Advanced Higher. A separate measure of attainment in all qualifications and awards on the SCQF can be found in the Summary Statistics for Attainment and Initial Leaver Destinations publication.

6 The inclusion of HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) data, for the first time in 2023, has contributed to improved data quality and demonstrates an increase in participation. Although the data did not cover the whole of the period of interest it demonstrated an increase in young adults reported as participating in employment and a reduction in those with an unconfirmed status. The inclusion of HMRC data has contributed to an increased proportion of young adults reported in employment and this should be remembered when comparing data. Additionally, the 2022 and 2023 statistics included data from DWP about Universal Credit (UC) claimants to comprehensively identify those out of work. The effects of Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and associated lockdown and re-opening measures will have impacted on young adults’ participation in 2021 and 2022. The impacts of the pandemic and the absence of both Universal Credit and HMRC data in prior years should be kept in mind when comparing 2023 data with earlier years.

7 The attendance rates reported for 2020/21 use the ‘attendance or absence – schools open’ measure. This measure includes attendance or absence only for the occasions when schools were open to pupils and are therefore comparable to attendance rates from previous years provided the impact of COVID-19 is borne in mind.

8 A number of changes to the approach to development assessments and recording of outcomes were implemented in April 2017. The decline in the percentage reporting ‘no concerns’ around 2017/18 is mainly due to this change. Trends in this measure should therefore be interpreted carefully. The COVID-19 pandemic led to changes in how reviews were delivered, as well as in the circumstances of daily life for many children in 2020/21 and 2021/22. It is therefore possible that both factors relating to assessment and recording, and genuine changes in the occurrence of developmental problems are contributing to the changes in the trends.

9 The HWB Census statistics are the aggregated results for the 16 local authorities who collected data, and are not weighted to population totals. These statistics are not directly comparable with the Scottish Schools Adolescent Lifestyle and Substance Use Survey (SALSUS) estimates previously used to report this measure. As such change in this measure will be reported as data becomes available in future years.

10 Publications referenced in this section are:

• Achievement of Curriculum for Excellence (CfE) levels: 2022/23
• Summary statistics for attainment and initial leaver destinations, no. 6: 2024 edition
• Education Outcomes for Looked After Children 2021/22

11 The broad trend across all the core NIF measures considered is that the gap between the two groups has been narrowing, over the years for which data have been analysed. However, the number of children and young people identified as having an ASN also has been rising. The Scottish Government’s school census reports that in 2010, 10.3 per cent of all pupils in publicly funded schools were recorded in the census has having an ASN; by 2023, this had risen to 36.7 per cent. These increases are likely due in part to continued improvements in recording, and a change in the legislation in 2010 which increased the possible reasons for having an ASN. This change in the proportion of pupils with ASN should be kept in mind when considering the changes seen over time in the attainment gap.

12Reference from the following publication- Education Outcomes for Looked After Children 2021-22

13 An Education Scotland briefing on poverty & gender inequality found at this link - Poverty & Gender Inequality, Education Scotland

14 The Scottish Governments 2023 Pupil census found at this link - Pupil census supplementary statistics - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

15 Achieving Excellence and Equity- 2024 National Improvement Framework and Improvement Plan - The National Improvement Framework Report published in December 2023 notes ‘of the remaining 11 measures, (those where there is available, comparable data) there has broadly been a narrowing of the gap in eight of the measures, and a widening of the gap in three of the measures.

16 Education Scotland published a deep dive into attendance in November 2024. You can find the Report at this link – Improving Attendance in Scottish Schools