Attainment Scotland Fund Evaluation: Reporting on Wider Evidence Sources, 2024

Learner journey

34. This section of the report provides an overview of evidence related to the learner journey through school, including early years, primary school, transitions, and aspirations. This includes:

• Cognitive development in early years and primary school
• Primary-Secondary transitions
• Aspirations and course choices
• Personal learning and achievement

Cognitive development in the Early Years and Primary School

35. Research has shown that the poverty-related attainment gap emerges early in a child's life, with data indicating a disparity in cognitive development in the Early Years and Primary School.

36. The Growing up in Scotland (GUS) longitudinal study has measured cognitive ability at ages three and five across different study cohorts using an assessment of expressive vocabulary and non-verbal reasoning. The data have revealed that the cognitive ability gap is already apparent by both of these ages. At age five (in 2012):

• 20% of children in the highest income quintile had below average vocabulary ability compared to 54% in the lowest income quintile.
• For problem-solving ability, the equivalent proportions are 29% and 53%.
• The assessment data can also be used to express the gap in developmental age. Compared with children in the lowest income quintile, those in the highest income quintile were around 13 months ahead in their knowledge of vocabulary and 10 months ahead in their problem-solving ability.

37. Studies using GUS data have examined the extent to which children from different socio-economic backgrounds progress in language and the factors that influence this.^[8] These studies identified similar characteristics and circumstances which were associated with children from more disadvantaged areas demonstrating higher levels of improvement over the primary school period, relative to their peers. These included:

• living in a rented or owned house rather than in social housing,
• living in rural areas and smaller towns as opposed to large urban areas; and,
• being exposed to stimulating activities and a calm atmosphere at home.

38. Children with above average levels of social, emotional and behavioural difficulties were at a disadvantage – these children were less likely to improve relative to their peers than children with lower levels of difficulties. This finding appears to lend support to efforts and initiatives that take a holistic approach to considering children's attainment which does not narrowly focus on one aspect (such as their language), but sees this as part of their wider development, including their mental health and wellbeing.

39. The report showed higher levels of improvement among children in small town and rural areas, even when other known differences such as parental education were taken into account. This seems to suggest that there are systematic differences in children's experiences in and/or outside of education in the areas where they live which affect their language development.

40. The report showed higher levels of improvement relative to other children among those who read or looked at books at home every day or almost every day around the time they were 8 years old (for most children, when in Primary 4), irrespective of other known differences such as the parent's level of education

Primary-Secondary Transitions

41. The transition from primary to secondary school is viewed as a crucial and significant period in much of the existing literature, and has received more focus than any other educational transition.^[9] Both in Scotland and internationally, studies have shown a 'dip' in attainment and wellbeing at the time of primary-secondary transition, particularly in literacy and numeracy.

42. The Scottish Government commissioned the Scottish Centre for Social Research and the University of Dundee to undertake analysis of Growing up in Scotland data on primary-secondary transitions.^[10] This report draws on data collected at the time children in the first GUS birth cohort were in P6 in academic years 2014/15 and 2015/16 and when they were in S1 in 2016/17 and 2017/18.

43. The report showed a clear pattern withregard to socioeconomic status and disadvantage. Equivalised household income, area deprivation and highest parental education level were all strongly associated with child experience of transition. The proportion of children reporting a negative transition increased across all three measures as the level of disadvantage increased, while the prevalence of positive transitions decreased.

44. Comparing the most and least disadvantaged, the greatest difference in the proportion of children reporting a positive transition was seen in relation to equivalised household income. For those in the top income quintile, 44% had a positive transition to secondary school. For those in the bottom quintile, however, there was a 19 percentage point difference, with 26% having had a positive transition.

45. Key findings from the research included:

• There was an increase in the average cognitive ability scores between primary and secondary school regardless of transition experience. However, a negative transition experience was associated with the smallest increase in scores (3.6 points on average), while the positive transition group had the largest increase in score (5.4 points on average).
• Socioeconomic status was also associated with the ease of paying any costs associated with school. This was the case for both household area disadvantage and equivalised household income. As socioeconomic status increased, parent-reported ease of paying any school costs also increased; 4% of those in the lowest income quintile found it 'very easy' compared with 36% of those in the highest.
• The prevalence of bullying in primary and secondary school was also assessed. Half of children reported being bullied in neither primary nor secondary school, while a fifth said that they were bullied at both time points. Bullying was more common in primary school (38%) than secondary school (28%). Children from households in the lowest income quintiles and the highest deprivation quintiles were the most likely to report being bullied in primary school and in both primary and secondary.

46. Research using UK data from the Millennium Cohort Study provides further evidence to suggest that the transition to secondary school is a particularly important phase of education. The research focused on longitudinal outcomes for high-achieving five year olds from low income families compared to those from high income families. The research found that the early part of secondary school (ages 11 to 14) is found to be a particularly important period for this group. The analysis showed that this coincides with a clear, rapid decline in high-ability low-income children's outcomes relative to equally able children from more affluent homes. This includes developing a more negative attitude towards school, increasingly troublesome behaviour, falling into a poorly behaved friendship group and declining levels of mental health. It is hence likely that such challenges combine to lead school performance – and ultimately their high-stakes examination grades – to decline.^[11]

Aspirations and Course Choices

47. Curriculum choices and decisions during the senior stage of secondary school such as number and composition of subjects entered for national qualifications as early as at age 15 are seen as highly consequential, leading learners to different pathways in qualifications, higher and further education and future destinations. When considering the educational and future outcomes of children and young people from areas of relative deprivation, aspirations and course choices are a key factor.

48. A range of data sources offer insights into educational aspirations of learners and their parents/carers, the factors that influence these aspirations and choices, the learner pathways that are open to children and young people, and how all these factors differ by socio-economic and other factors.

49. The Growing up in Scotland longitudinal study asked participants at the age of 14 in 2019/20 about their aspirations for their education. Young people in the most deprived SIMD areas were:

• Less likely to want to stay on at school or college full time (76 per cent) compared to young people in the least deprived areas (85.1 per cent).
• Less likely to say they saw themselves going to university (39.1 per cent) compared to young people in the least deprived areas (57.5 per cent).
• More likely to say that they saw themselves going to college (27.8 per cent) compared to young people in the least deprived areas (7.8 per cent).

50. The Young People in Scotland Research,^[12] commissioned by Skills Development Scotland in 2022, explored views on future aspirations and careers of a representative sample of 1,533 Scottish school pupils aged 11-18. The research found similar patterns in responses to the Growing up in Scotland study. Key findings in relation to relative deprivation included:

• A third of young people from SIMD 1 expected to go to university, compared to 55 per cent of those in SIMD 5.
• 20 per cent of young people from SIMD 5 expected to go to college, compared to 55 per cent of those in SIMD 1.
• In terms of interest in job sectors, young people from the most deprived areas were more likely than those in the least deprived areas to be interested in Creative Industries (33 per cent compared to 27 per cent), hospitality (27 per cent compared to 24 per cent), teaching (28 per cent compared to 21 per cent), and caring (25 per cent compared to 20 per cent). Conversely, young people in SIMD 1 were less likely to report interest in sport, medicine and health, engineering, and science.

51. While young people from SIMD 1 were less likely to see themselves going to university, research using GUS data has suggested that there is no lack of aspiration amongst both young people and their parents from the most deprived areas; rather, the type of aspiration is different.

52. Research using GUS data^[13] found that there are statistically significant differences in the types of aspirations parents hold for their children according to their experience of poverty. However, there is no 'lack of aspiration'. Parents living in any type of poverty are 1.6 times more likely than parents with no experience of poverty to want their child to start a training course or undertake an apprenticeship on leaving school. Parents' aspirations differ by poverty experience, but they are still 'high' aspirations, and are a construct of parents' own knowledge, understanding and experience.

53. The translation of aspirations into learning pathways and qualifications is a key aspect of addressing the poverty-related attainment gap. The research above found that, for every type of poverty, parents are between 1.4 and 1.8 times less likely to believe that they can positively influence their child's achievement at school compared to parents with no experience of poverty. This corresponds to the literature that while poorer parents have aspirations for their children they are less confident in their ability to assist them.

54. Research with children and young people for the Scottish Government in 2019^[14] provided further insights into the factors that influence course and subject choice in school, and this differs by socio-economic background. The research found that young people in the most deprived areas were:

• More likely to choose subjects based on parent (33%) or teacher advice (15%) compared to young people in the least deprived areas (SIMD 5) (26% and 11% respectively).
• More likely to agree that they have a say in how the curriculum is designed in their school (37%) than young people in the least deprived areas (26%).
• More likely to agree that the guidance they had received from their school on choosing subjects was helpful (42%), compared to 36% of young people from the least disadvantaged areas (SIMD 5).
• Less likely to report feeling happy with the courses they were able to choose (61%) compared to young people from the least deprived areas (65%).

Personal Learning and Achievement

55. The Scottish Attainment Challenge Refresh in April 2022 included a broader recognition of children and young people's achievements and attainment through the policy's mission to use education to improve outcomes for children and young people impacted by poverty.

56. Part of broader recognition of achievements includes non-formal learning Youth Awards, which are increasingly being utilised in youth work, school and community settings to recognise and accredit personal learning and achievement. They engage young people in a wide range of interdisciplinary and experiential learning and can provide opportunities to recognise learning and skills gained through other programme offers that are often referred to in schools as 'wider achievement'^[15].

57. Many Youth Awards are recognised within SCQF Level Framework, while others have different types of awards and accreditations. A list of Youth Awards in Scotland can be found here: Awards Summary Table || Awards Network

58. Figures from Youth Scotland, one of the providers of Youth Awards, show that 31% of all Youth Scotland awards in 2021/22 were delivered in SIMD 1, indicating the importance of Youth Awards in more deprived areas. However, the data utilised in this report suggest that children and young people in the most deprived areas are more likely to be attend a youth organisation, but less likely than their less deprived counterparts to be part of group working towards a youth award.

59. The Growing up in Scotland survey asked young people aged 14^[16] in 2019/20 about youth work activities that they had participated in during the previous 12 months:

• One in five said they were 'involved in a group working towards a youth award', whilst 15.5% were 'members of uniformed youth'.
• Girls were more likely to say they had been involved in a group working towards a youth award (25.7%, compared with 15.8% of boys) or attended a youth group (7.5%, compared with 5.2% of boys).
• Those in SIMD quintile 1 were less likely than that those in quintiles 4 and 5 to say they had been members of uniformed youth (10.7%, compared with 17.2% and 20.9% respectively) but were more likely to say they had attended a youth club (9.7%, compared with 5.2% and 5% respectively).
• Those in SIMD quintiles 1 and 2 were less likely to say they were involved in a group working towards a youth award (13.6% and 13.5%) than those in quintiles 4 (24.3%) and 5 (32.7%).

60. Various datasets provide insights into a wider set of activities and clubs that children and young people participate in, which can be seen as contributing towards 'wider achievement'.

61. In the Health and Wellbeing Survey in 2021-22^[17], 78% of young people in S1 to S3 said they had participated in positive leisure activities. However, when we look at this data by area of deprivation, participation in positive leisure activities tend to decrease as deprivation increases. For example, 70% of those in the most deprived areas (SIMD 1) participated in a positive leisure activity, compared to 86% of those from the least deprived areas (SIMD 5).

62. Looking at specific activities, children and young people in SIMD 1 were more likely than the average to have taken part in a buddying/mentoring programme at school or a religious activity, and to have attended a youth organisation. However, they were less likely to have undertaken voluntary work or take part in a charity, to have taken part in a drama/singing/dancing group, and significantly less likely to take part in sport club compared to SIMD 5.

63. In the Growing up in Scotland survey^[18], young people were asked at the age of 14 if they regularly participated in organised activities outside of school hours in the last 12 months. In general, those in SIMD 5 were more likely to take part in some activities;

• 36% of those in SIMD 5 took part in art, music or performance, compared with 22.2% of those in SIMD 1.
• 12.8% of those in SIMD 5 took part in classes or extra lessons, compared with 5.7% of SIMD 1.
• 7.9% of SIMD 5 took part in classes to learn new skills, compared with 3.7% of SIMD 1.