Attainment Scotland Fund Evaluation: Reporting on Wider Evidence Sources, 2024

Conclusion and discussion

123. This report has sought to use a wide range of national datasets to synthesise evidence around the poverty-related attainment gap in Scotland. In some cases, this provides a trend analysis of progress towards closing the gap, and in others a snapshot into the experiences of children and young living in the most deprived areas. All of the analysis is based on publicly available data and reports.

124. There were over 154,000 school pupils living in the most deprived areas of Scotland in 2022/23. Compared to pupils from the least deprived areas, these pupils are more likely to have an identified Additional Support Need, to be Care Experienced, and to be a carer themselves.

125. The data show that progress has been made in improving outcomes for this group. In the NIF measures report that is published alongside this report, the analysis indicates at a national level on the majority of the core measures there is positive progress in closing the attainment gap. Of the 11 measures, (those where there is available, comparable data) there has broadly been a narrowing of the gap in eight of the measures, and a widening of the gap in three of the measures. This includes a narrowing of the gap around initial destinations and participation and continued indications of progress in the percentage of pupils achieving the expected CfE Level. There was more mixed progress in national qualifications, while the gap in attendance has increased in recent years.

126. In this report, the All SCQF Measure, which is a wider measure of attainment and achievement than the National Qualifications measure, shows that the attainment gap between pupils from the most and least deprived areas has narrowed considerably in the long-term. At SCQF Level 5, the gap reduced from 32.1 percentage points in 2009/10 to 16.6 percentage points in 2022/23. In 2009/10, pupils from the most deprived areas were more likely to leave school with no SCQF awards than to achieve at least one award at SCQF Level 7; pupils from the most deprived areas are now almost five times more likely to achieve an award at SCQF Level 7 (15.2 per cent) than to leave school with no awards (3.3 per cent). In this period, the number of award providers and types of awards has expanded. However, the important aspect of this trend is that pupils are achieving these awards.

127. The Widening Access to Higher Education figures show significant progress. In 2022/23, a record number of young people from both the most deprived SIMD areas and from Care Experienced backgrounds gained places in Higher Education. This shows progress in both the policies and practices of Higher Education providers, but also in the progress and achievements of young people gaining places. Of particular note, is the progress of young women from the most deprived areas in achieving places in Higher Education and the shift in the make-up of female students. This has not been seen to the same extent for young men.

128. While access to Higher Education is improving, evidence from the Longitudinal Educational Outcomes dataset suggests that there are socio-economic and gender gaps in terms of earnings five years after graduation. The gap between the most and least deprived in postgraduate education has also not reduced significantly. For both earnings and access to postgraduate education, the types of courses and subjects that young people are accessing may be influencing these outcomes.

129. In many of the areas considered in this report, the challenges to addressing the poverty-related attainment gap are clear. In particular, COVID-19 and school building closures have had a clear impact on education, disproportionately on those from more deprived areas. It is likely that data are already showing the impact of this experience, particularly in PISA and the Health and Wellbeing Census, and it seems inevitable that this impact will be felt for a number of years. The impact may be different for pupils of different ages and characteristics.

130. The data show that that the poverty-related attainment gap starts early in a child's life, and this can be seen before the start of school. The Growing up in Scotland survey has provided invaluable data and analysis, showing the gaps in development upon starting school, and the different experiences of pupils in primary education and in the primary-secondary transition. This transition appears particularly important, with analysis of GUS data showing a 19 percentage point difference in positive transitions between top and bottom income quintiles, and the Health and Wellbeing Census showing the wellbeing gap on issues such as being happy at school and enjoying learning new things increasing after S1.

131. Another important finding from the Growing up in Scotland survey is that there is no 'poverty of aspiration' for children and young people, and their parents/carers, but rather that these aspirations differ by socio-economic status. While they don't lack aspirations for their children, parents in more deprived areas have a lack of confidence in their ability to support their children to achieve them. Aspirations – and the translation of them into course choices – have an important impact on pathways into future education and employment opportunities, and are a key area of consideration.

132. The refreshed Scottish Attainment Challenge included a broader recognition of children and young people's achievements and attainment through the policy's mission to use education to improve outcomes for children and young people impacted by poverty. This includes Youth Awards, many of which are recognised in the SCQF framework. The data suggest that children and young people in the most deprived areas are more likely to be attend a youth organisation, but less likely than their less deprived counterparts to be part of a group working towards a youth award.

133. The data on health and wellbeing provide important insights into the experiences of children and young people, and their families, on a range of measures. Data from the Growing up in Scotland survey shows that the poverty-related gap in wellbeing starts before school, with data from the GUS survey showing that children in the lowest income group have poorer social, emotional or behavioural health by the time they start school. This gap was maintained at ages 8 and 14, while pupils at these ages also reported lower life satisfaction. The Health and Wellbeing Census, carried out in 2021/22, added to this evidence base, showing a potential gradient in the health and wellbeing gap. On a series of questions on wellbeing, the gap between pupils from SIMD 1 and SIMD 5 agreeing to each statement is lowest in P5 and highest between S1 and S3. Further data is required to confirm this pattern.

134. It is clear from the data that there are differences between the most and least deprived pupils in their experiences of school and home life. Based on the Health and Wellbeing Census, the largest gap between pupils from SIMD 1 and SIMD 5 is for those agreeing that 'most of the time I am happy at school'. Children and young people from the most deprived areas were less likely than those in the least deprived areas to find it easy to talk to their parents/carers, particularly their father/male carer, about the things that really bother them.

135. Finally, the evidence suggests that while socio-economic background is a significant factor in unequal outcomes in education, other factors, such as sex, care experience, and geographical location, should be given due weight, particularly in how they intersect with an individual's social background. How a young person experiences education and the outcomes they achieve depends on a combination of factors. This report touches on some of these factors and how they intersect with social background, but more analysis would be possible using the datasets utilised in this report.