BICS weighted Scotland estimates: data to wave 62

Exporting and Importing Challenges

The BICS asks businesses that are currently trading about how current conditions, including the end of the EU transition period, have impacted on their exporting and importing – the specific questions asked are shown below.

Question: How did your business's exporting compare with this calendar month last year?

• exported/imported more
• exporting/importing stayed the same
• exported/imported less
• business was unable to export / import
• not sure

Figure 4: Of businesses currently trading that have exported/imported in the last 12 months, 20.0% reported exporting less in June 2022 compared to June 2021, and 17.1% reported importing less.

Source: Office for National Statistics – BICS – Weighted Scotland Estimates – Wave 62

The proportion of businesses reporting that they exported less compared to the same calendar month last year has increased since March 2022 (11.0% in Wave 54 compared to 20.0% in Wave 62) although this proportion has fallen from 23.1% since Wave 61. Businesses reporting that they imported less has also increased during this period (8.5% in Wave 54 compared to 17.1% in Wave 62). The proportion of businesses reporting that they exported more has also increased between Wave 54 and Wave 62 but by a smaller margin (from 14.0% in March/Wave 54 to 15.6% in Wave 62).

In the latest period, around half of exporters (48.9%) and importers (56.2%) reported their exporting/importing had stayed the same. The proportion of businesses reporting that exports have stayed the same is lower than in March 2022 (61.0% in Wave 54) but has remained relatively stable since May 2022 (Wave 58). The proportion of those reporting imports stayed the same decreased to it’s lowest point in Wave 58 (48.7%) but has since been increasing to 56.2% in June 2022 (Wave 62).

Currently trading businesses that have exported or imported in the last 12 months, and who reported on their exporting or importing in the past month, were asked if they had experienced an increase in exporting/importing challenges.

Figure 5: Around half (50.3%) of exporters and 41.2% of importers reported that they did not experience an increase in exporting/importing challenges in June 2022 compared with May 2022.

Source: Office for National Statistics – BICS – Weighted Scotland Estimates – Wave 62

The largest changes to challenges for exports between Waves 61 and 62 are an increase in reported reduced demand for products and services (up to 8.0% from 1.1%) and an increase in reported lack of hauliers/logistics equipment (up to 14.6% from 8.1%). The challenges that were most commonly reported to have increased in the current wave were changes in transportation costs and additional paperwork, which is the same as in Wave 61.

Businesses that reported challenges to exporting/importing were asked about the main cause of these exporting/importing challenges.

Figure 6: Over a third (37.9%) of businesses reported that the end of the EU transition period was the main cause of their exporting challenges with a further 38.8% reporting this together with COVID-19 as the main cause.

Source: Office for National Statistics – BICS – Weighted Scotland Estimates – Wave 62

The end of the EU transition period was most often reported as the main cause of challenges for importing (51.8%).