Building a New Scotland: migration to Scotland after independence

This paper sets out the Scottish Government's proposals for migration policy in an independent Scotland.


Endnotes

1. Anderson, M. Scotland's Populations from the 1850s to Today. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2018

2. National Records of Scotland (2022) Rest of the UK Migration

3. National Records of Scotland (2023) Scotland's Census 2022 – Rounded population estimates

4. National Records of Scotland (2023) Scotland's Census 2022 – Rounded population estimates

5. National Records of Scotland (2023) Annual births, deaths, marriages and other vital events: Vital Events Reference Tables 2022

6. National Records of Scotland (2023) Annual births, deaths, marriages and other vital events: Vital Events Reference Tables 2022

7. National Records of Scotland (2022) Mid-2021 Population Estimates Scotland

8. Blinder, S (2014) Immigration and Independence: Public Opinion on Immigration in Scotland in the Context of the Referendum Debate (Migration Observatory)

9. Kyambi, S and Kay, R (2023) Attitudes to Immigration: A view from Scotland (Migration Policy Scotland)

10. The two surveys were Ipsos/British Future (September 2023) (3,000 respondents, fieldwork period: 14th July – 8th August 2023), and Kantar Public and Migration Observatory (June 2023) (2,300 respondents, fieldwork period: 18-24th April 2023

11. Table adapted from Kyambi, S and Kay, R (2023) Attitudes to Immigration: A view from Scotland (Migration Policy Scotland), p9

12. Ipsos/British Future (September 2023) Question: Do you think the number of immigrants coming to Britain nowadays should be increased a lot, increased a little, remain the same as it is, reduced a little, or reduced a lot? (3,000 respondents, fieldwork period: 14th July – 8th August 2023)

13. Kantar Public and Migration Observatory (June 2023) Question: Do you think the number of immigrants coming to Britain nowadays should be increased, reduced or should it remain the same? (2,300 respondents, fieldwork period: 18-24th April 2023

14. Blinder, S (2014) Immigration and Independence: Public Opinion on Immigration in Scotland in the Context of the Referendum Debate (Migration Observatory)

15. National Records of Scotland (2023) Projected Population of Scotland (2020-based)

16. Office for National Statistics (2022) National population projections: 2020-based interim national projections

17. See: Migration and Population Expert Advisory Group

18. Expert Advisory Group on Migration and Population (2020) UK immigration policy after leaving the EU: impacts on Scotland's economy, population and society – July 2020 update

19. Expert Advisory Group on Migration and Population (2019) UK immigration policy after leaving the EU: impacts on Scotland's economy, population and society

20. Bell, D (2022) 'There were 240,000 migrants to UK last year – but where they come from is interesting' (The Herald, 24 June 2022)

21. National Records of Scotland (2023) Projected Population of Scotland (2020-based)

22. Scottish Government (2020) Migration: Helping Scotland Prosper

23. Scottish Government (2018) Scotland's population needs and migration policy: discussion paper

24. Scottish Government (2016) Scotland's Place in Europe

25. UK Visas and Immigration (2013) Fresh Talent: Working in Scotland Scheme

26. Davidson, P Nicola Sturgeon's 'Scottish visa' plan rejected by UK Government (Daily Record, 27 January 2020)

27. Migration Advisory Committee (2019) Full review of the shortage occupation list

28. UK Government (2023) Skilled Worker visa

29. Scottish Government (2021) A Scotland for the future: opportunities and challenges of Scotland's changing population

30. Migration Advisory Committee (2018) EEA Migration in the UK: Final Report

31. Migration Advisory Committee (2018) EEA Migration in the UK: Final Report

32. Bank of England (2015) EU membership and the Bank of England

33. Bank of England (2015) EU membership and the Bank of England

34. International Monetary Fund (2016) Impact of Migration on Income Levels in Advanced Economies

35. The Federation of Small Businesses, Starting over: migrant entrepreneurship in Scotland

36. Bahar D, Choudhury P & Rapoport H (2020) Migrant Inventors and the Technological Advantage of Nations (Harvard Business School)

37. Migration Advisory Committee (2018) EEA migration in the UK

38. Oxford Economics (2018) The Fiscal Impact of Immigration on the UK

39. Migration Advisory Committee (2018) EEA migration in the UK

40. Portes, J (2022) How is the post-Brexit immigration system affecting the UK economy? (Economics Observatory)

41. Scottish Government (2018) Scotland's population needs and migration policy: discussion paper

42. Office for Budget Responsibility (2016) Economic and fiscal outlook – November 2016

43. Scottish Government (2020) Non-UK nationals in Scotland's workforce – gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

44. Scottish Government (2023) BICS weighted Scotland estimates: data to wave 92 – gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

45. Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec 2020. Scotland's Labour Market: People, Places and Regions – industry tables

46. Scottish Government (2023) BICS weighted Scotland estimates: data to wave 92

47. Scottish Government (2023) BICS weighted Scotland estimates: data to wave 92

48. UK Hospitality Scotland (2021) Written evidence to Scottish Affairs Committee on labour shortages

49. Scottish Tourism Alliance (2020) STA responds to announcement of new UK-points based immigration system

50. UK Hospitality Scotland (2021) Written evidence to Scottish Affairs Committee on labour shortages

51. Scottish Government (2023) Long-term food and drink stability

52. Scottish Government (2023) Seasonal migrant workers in Scottish agriculture: research report

53. Scottish Government (2023) Seasonal migrant workers in Scottish agriculture: research report

54. Defra (2023) An update following the UK Farm to Fork summit held at 10 Downing Street on 16 May 2023; UK Government (2023) Workers and Temporary Workers: guidance for sponsors: sponsor a seasonal worker

55. National Farmers Union (2022) Labour shortages cost millions in fruit and veg waste

56. Scottish Government (2023) Seasonal migrant workers in Scottish agriculture: research report

57. Focus on Labour Exploitation (2021) Assessment of the risks of human trafficking for forced labour on the UK Seasonal Workers Pilot

58. See: Worker Support Centre

59. Scottish Government (2023) Growth sector statistics – gov.scot (www.gov.scot), last accessed 10 October 2023

60. Scottish Government (2023) People Working in Arts, Culture and Creative Industries | National Performance Framework, last accessed October 2023

61. Scottish Government (2020) Non-UK nationals in Scotland's workforce Jan 2019 – Dec 2019 tables

62. Scottish Government (2019) Salary thresholds and an 'Australian-style' points-based immigration system: our response

63. Scottish Government (2022) Building a New Scotland: Citizenship in an independent Scotland

64. National Records of Scotland (2022) Scotland's Population 2021: The Registrar General's Annual Review of Demographic Trends

65. Scottish Government (2020) Migration: Helping Scotland Prosper

66. Scottish Government (2018) Scotland's Population Needs and Migration Policy: Discussion Paper

67. Scottish Government (2018) Scotland's Place in Europe: People, Jobs and Investment

68. Scottish Government (2018) New Scots: Refugee Integration Strategy 2018 to 2022

69. Home Office (2022) Memorandum of Understanding between the government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the government of the Republic of Rwanda for the provision of an asylum partnership arrangement

70. UNHCR (n.d.) Convention and Protocol relating to the Status of Refugees

71. Scottish Government (2020) Migration: Helping Scotland Prosper

72. See Scottish Government (2020) Migration: Helping Scotland Prosper; and Scottish Government (2018) Scotland's population needs and migration policy: discussion paper

73. Scottish Government (2018) New Scots: refugee integration strategy 2018 to 2022

74. Scottish Government (2023) National Performance Framework

75. Williams, W (2020) Windrush Lessons Learned Review (Home Office)

76. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2019) OECD Recommendation on Policy Coherence for Sustainable Development

77. Scottish Government (2022) International recruitment of health and social care personnel: Scottish Code of Practice

78. Scottish Government (2022) Citizenship in an independent Scotland

79. Expert Advisory Group on Migration and Population (2019) Immigration policy and demographic change in Scotland: learning from Australia, Canada and continental Europe

80. The Scottish Parliament (2022) Official Report: Meeting of the Parliament, Tuesday 22 February 2022, col 84-85

81. Nationality and Borders Act 2022

82. Grandi, F (2022) UNHCR's Grandi fears UK legislation will dramatically weaken refugee protection (UN High Commission for Refugees)

83. Scottish Government (2023) Protecting people seeking refuge in Scotland and Scottish Parliament (2023) Illegal Migration Bill – Motion S6M-09710

84. Scottish Government (2022) Building a New Scotland: Citizenship in an independent Scotland

85. Sigona, N & Godin, M (2019) EU families in Scotland after the Brexit referendum: Fears, hopes and belonging (Institute for Research in Superdiversity, University of Birmingham)

86. National Records of Scotland (2021) Population by Country of Birth and Nationality, Scotland, July 2020 to June [2021]

87. Citizens Advice Scotland (2022) EU Settlement Scheme

88. Scottish Government (2021) EU citizens staying in Scotland: support and toolkit for eu citizens, their employers and landlords

89. EUR-Lex (2004) EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:32004L0038">Directive 2004/38/EC on the right of citizens of the Union and their family members to move EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:32004L0038">and reside freely within the territory of the Member States

90. Kennedy, S (2015) Measures to limit migrants' access to benefits (House of Commons Library)

91. HM Government (2014) Review of the Balance of Competences between the United Kingdom and the European Union: Single Market: Free Movement of Persons

92. HM Government (2014) Review of the Balance of Competences between the United Kingdom and the European Union: Single Market: Free Movement of Persons

93. HM Government (2014) Review of the Balance of Competences between the United Kingdom and the European Union: Single Market: Free Movement of Persons

94. Fihel, A etal(2015) Free movement of workers and transitional arrangements: lessons from the 2004 and 2007 enlargements

95. Scottish Government (2022) Citizenship in an independent Scotland

96. See Expert Advisory Group on Migration and Population (2021) Designing a pilot remote and rural migration scheme: analysis and policy options; Scottish Government (2021) Designing a pilot remote and rural migration scheme for Scotland – analysis and policy options: our response

97. Home Office (2022) Annual Report and Accounts 2021-22

98. Home Office (2023) Visa fees transparency data. Table with details of fees and unit costs – 4 October 2023, last accessed October 2023

99. Scottish Government (2021) A Scotland for the future: opportunities and challenges of Scotland's changing population

100. Scottish Government (2023) Citizenship in an independent Scotland

101. Times Higher Education (2023) World University Rankings 2024: results announced

102. Higher Education Statistics Agency (2023) Table 28 – Non-UK domiciled HE students by HE provider and country of domicile 2014/15 to 2021/22 | HESA

103. Universities Scotland (2020) Universities in Advanced Economies: Recovery and Transformation

104. UK Visas and Immigration (2013) Fresh Talent: Working in Scotland Scheme

105. OECD (2023) Education at a Glance 2023: OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing, last accessed October 2023

106. Scottish Government (2023) Gross expenditure on research and development Scotland 2021

107. Higher Education Statistics Agency (Staffing data) – Table 27 – All staff (excluding atypical) by personal characteristics 2014/15 to 2021/22 | HESA, last accessed October 2023

108. UK Government (2023) Immigration Rules Appendix Visitor: Visa national list

109. Scottish Government (2022) Citizenship in an independent Scotland

110. UK Government (2023) Youth Mobility Scheme Visa

111. Consulate General of Ireland – New York (2022) Working Holiday Authorisation

112. Labour Mobility Partnerships (2022) Spain's Immigration Reform Could Address Issues Within Seasonal Worker Program

113. Scottish Government (2021) Intra-company transfer immigration route – call for evidence: Scottish Government response

114. Scottish Government (2022) A stronger economy with independence

115. Home Office (2022) Scale-up visa will propel high-growth businesses

116. Home Office (2022) Tier 1 Investor Visa route closes over security concerns

117. Expert Advisory Group on Migration and Population (2021) Family migration: understanding the drivers, impacts and support needs of migrant families

118. Expert Advisory Group on Migration and Population (2021) Family migration: understanding the drivers, impacts and support needs of migrant families

119. UK Visas and Immigration (2022) Family visas: apply, extend or switch: Give proof of your income

120. Analysis by Scottish Government of the ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 2022 provisional data. The analysis covers employees aged 16 and over in full-time and part-time employment, on adult rates who have been in the same job for more than a year (therefore employees who moved job in the previous year have been excluded from this analysis).

121. UK Government (2023) Visa fees transparency data

122. UN High Commission for Refugees (2010) 1951 Convention and Protocol Relating to the Status of Refugees

123. Scottish Government (2018) New Scots: refugee integration strategy 2018 to 2022

124. UK Government (2023) Indefinite leave to remain (refugee, humanitarian protection or Discretionary Leave)

125. World Bank (2021) Millions on the Move in Their Own Countries: The Human Face of Climate Change

126. UN High Commission on Refugees (2022) Climate change and disaster displacement

127. UN High Commission on Refugees (2018) The Global Compact on Refugees

128. Dempster, H & Ober, K (2020) New Zealand's "Climate Refugee" Visas: Lessons for the Rest of the World (Center for Global Development)

129. Ghosh, C & Orchiston, C (2021) Climate-induced Migration in the Pacific: The Role of New Zealand (New Zealand Association for Impact Assessment)

130. Scottish Government (2022) Scottish Government at COP26: What was achieved?

131. Scottish Government (2023) Citizenship in an independent Scotland

132. Immigration Act, 1971

133. Home Office (2023) Immigration Rules

134. Law Commission (2020) Simplifying the Immigration Rules

135. Scottish Government (2022) Citizenship in an independent Scotland

136. See: Migration Advisory Committee

137. Expert Advisory Group on Migration and Population (2021) Overview

138. Independent Chief Inspector of Borders and Immigration (2022) About us

139. Independent Chief Inspector of Borders and Immigration (2022) Chief Inspector increasingly frustrated with Home Office publication delay to his small boats report

140. See: Independent Monitoring Authority – What We Do

141. Williams, W (2020) Windrush Lessons Learned Review (Home Office)

142. See: Office of the Immigration Services Commissioner

143. See HM Courts & Tribunals Service (2022) First-tier Tribunal (Immigration and Asylum); and Upper Tribunal (Immigration and Asylum Chamber)

144. Scottish Government (2020) Migration: Helping Scotland Prosper

145. Scottish Government (2020) Migration: Helping Scotland Prosper

Contact

Email: ConstitutionalFutures@gov.scot

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