Carbon Assessment of the 2018-19 Draft Budget
Estimate of the consumption-based carbon emissions associated with planned budget expenditure.
1. Introduction
1. This assessment is based on the expenditure data presented in the 2018-19 Draft Budget and fulfils the statutory requirement under Section 94 of the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 to report upon the emissions impact of expenditure proposals.
1.1. Scope of Assessment
2. The assessment of the Draft Budget captures solely the emissions associated with Scottish Government's purchase of goods and services. It is a consumption-based measure that covers direct emissions (including emissions from space heaters in Government buildings) and indirect emissions (supply side impacts, such as the production of gravel for roads constructed by the Government or generation of electricity, which is then used by Government). It also includes any imported emissions that are generated in producing the direct and indirect goods and services that Government purchases.
3. The methodology for the Carbon Assessment of the Draft Budget is high level in nature, and thus best applied to portfolio spending and budget expenditure as a whole. This assessment allows the Scottish Government to place the carbon impact of its use of goods and services within the wider context of the national and global economy. It helps raise awareness of the carbon impact of spend in different areas, by identifying direct emissions and those from supply-side inputs.
4. The assessment does not, however, take account of 'second-round' emissions; while we do include emission impacts associated with Government spend and its supply chain, we do not count the emissions or savings associated with all of the outcomes arising from Government spending. For example, while the emissions associated with manufacturing and installing insulation are included, we do not count the carbon that may be saved in future as a result of making that improvement to the housing stock. [1]
5. In order to better understand the complete picture on emissions associated with Government spend on goods and services, this assessment needs to be read alongside the Climate Change Plan, to be published in February 2018, which sets out measures out to 2032, for meeting the 2050, interim and annual targets in the Climate Change (Scotland) Act.
6. Although the methodology underpinning the Carbon Assessment of the Draft Budget remains the same as for the Carbon Assessment of the 2017-18 Draft Budget, the base year of Environmental Input-Output ( EIO) model itself has been updated from 2010 to 2013. This is possible because of the newly available input-output analytical tables covering the year 2013 for the UK. As usual the model has also been updated to use the latest available Greenhouse Gas emissions ratios and HM Treasury deflators. More information about these changes and their effects on the overall GHG estimates can be found in Annex A.
1.2. Key Results
7. Following the approach set out in section 1.1, it is estimated that total emissions attributed to the Draft 2018-19 Budget amount to 7.4 million tonnes (Mt) CO 2-equivalent. Applying the updated model to the 2017-18 Draft Budget shows an emissions total of 7.1 MtCO 2-equivalent.
8. Details on the various sources of emissions show that some 36 per cent of the Scottish Government's carbon footprint is caused by the use of energy, water and waste, followed by manufacturing (21 per cent) and transport and communication (14 per cent).
1.3. Budget Context
9. The Draft Budget for 2018-19 contains details of Total Managed Expenditure ( TME) of £40.6 billion across portfolio areas. Expenditure is split between resources and capital expenditure, and Annually Managed Expenditure ( AME). This is illustrated in Table 1. Total Managed Expenditure was £38 billion across portfolio areas in the 2017-18 Draft Budget.
Table 1: Total proposed spending plans for 2018-19
| 2018-19 Draft Budget | Resource £m | Capital £m | Total £m | UK Funded AME £m | Total £m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health and Sport | 13,147.8 | 351.2 | 13,499.0 | 100.0 | 13,599.0 |
| Finance and the Constitution | 164.9 | 6.7 | 171.6 | 4,624.0 | 4,795.6 |
| Education and Skills | 2,813.6 | 171.0 | 2,984.6 | 428.0 | 3,412.6 |
| Justice | 2,540.1 | 112.8 | 2,652.9 | - | 2,652.9 |
| Economy, Jobs and Fair Work | 266.0 | 423.8 | 689.8 | - | 689.8 |
| Communities, Social Security and Equalities | 7,146.3 | 1,733.4 | 8,879.7 | 2,636.0 | 11,515.7 |
| Environment, Climate Change and Land Reform | 165.0 | 239.9 | 404.9 | - | 404.9 |
| Rural Economy and Connectivity | 1,447.0 | 1,359.4 | 2,806.4 | - | 2,806.4 |
| Culture, Tourism and External Affairs | 314.6 | 29.7 | 344.3 | - | 344.3 |
| Administration | 179.5 | 13.1 | 192.6 | - | 192.6 |
| Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service | 112.4 | 3.6 | 116.0 | - | 116.0 |
| Scottish Government | 28,297.2 | 4,444.6 | 32,741.8 | 7,788.0 | 40,529.8 |
| Scottish Parliament and Audit Scotland | 106.1 | 1.5 | 107.6 | 2.0 | 109.6 |
| Total Scotland | 28,403.3 | 4,446.1 | 32,849.4 | 7,790.0 | 40,639.4 |
Summary
It is estimated that total emissions resulting from the 2018-19 Draft Budget will be 7.4 Mt CO 2-equivalent.
Emissions remain broadly proportional to spend, except for Rural Economy and Connectivity, where emissions per unit of spend are slightly higher.
'Second-round' emissions that may result from Government spending and the use of public goods and services, whether beneficial in terms of reducing emissions ( e.g. spending on energy efficiency or afforestation) or negative in terms of increasing emissions ( e.g. road use) are not captured.
Alongside this analysis of the carbon impact of the Draft Budget, the Scottish Government will continue to use additional assessment methods to improve understanding of the emission impacts of both Government expenditure and policies. The final Climate Change Plan, setting out measures to 2032 for achieving our climate change targets, will be published in February 2018.
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