Publication - Research and analysis

Scottish Budget 2021-2022: carbon assessment

Published: 28 January 2021
Directorate: Chief Economist Directorate
Topic: Economy, Environment and climate change
ISBN: 9781800045514

Estimate of the consumption-based carbon emissions associated with planned budget expenditure.

2. High-level Carbon Assessment of 2021-22 Budget

2.1. Portfolio Expenditure and Associated Emissions

17. Total estimated emissions attributable to the 2021-22 Budget are 10.2 Mt CO2-equivalent. Table 2 shows overall spend and emissions by the individual portfolios and how these emissions arise. Emissions remain broadly proportional to spend, except for Rural Economy and Tourism, Transport, Infrastructure and Connectivity and Social Security and Older People, where emissions per unit of spend are slightly higher. Health and Sport, Communities and Local Government, Rural Economy and Tourism, Transport, Infrastructure and Connectivity and Social Security and Older People are the largest Budget items, with the highest emissions.

18. Expenditure is shown net of income, in line with the Budget, and emissions are calculated on that basis.^[3]

Table 2: Portfolio expenditure^[4] (TME excluding non-cash items) and emissions
Portfolio	Spend £m	Estimated GHG emissions (thousands of tonnes of CO₂equivalent)
		Domestic		Imported	Total
		Direct	Indirect	Imported	Total
Health and Sport	£16,664	417.6	634.7	1,046.0	2,098.3
Communities and Local Government	£11,831	648.8	413.2	1,085.0	2,147.0
Finance	£6,121	6.6	225.3	533.7	765.6
Education and Skills	£4,271	107.2	110.9	348.9	566.9
Justice	£2,967	81.9	110.5	229.8	422.2
Transport, Infrastructure and Connectivity	£3,784	486.2	127.6	650.2	1,263.9
Environment, Climate Change and Land Reform	£479	14.7	12.8	75.9	103.5
Rural Economy and Tourism	£1,126	1,061.3	165.8	267.9	1,495.1
Economy, Fair Work and Culture	£1,010	21.1	40.1	84.3	145.4
Social Security and Older People	£3,980	231.2	146.4	728.5	1,106.1
Constitution, Europe and External Affairs	£80	2.4	3.1	6.1	11.6
Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service	£152	4.5	5.9	11.8	22.1
Scottish Parliament and Audit Scotland	£121	3.4	4.5	8.7	16.6
Total	£52,585	3,086.8	2,000.9	5,076.8	10,164.5

19. Direct emissions account for 30 per cent of the total; indirect emissions for a further 20 per cent – a large proportion of which is caused by electricity generation. 50 per cent of emissions attributable to Budget expenditure are generated outside Scotland and are embedded in imported goods and services.

20. Figure 1 demonstrates graphically the results for individual portfolios and the split by type of emissions (direct/indirect), and also whether the emissions are domestic or imported. As the graph highlights, the emissions intensity (carbon emissions per pound of spend) of individual portfolios are broadly similar. The exception is Rural Economy and Tourism, where the emissions intensity of spend is higher.

21. A large part of this expenditure is linked to carbon-intensive production methods (carbon sequestration through forestry is not taken into account). Note that in the second part of Figure 1, the scales vary by portfolio.

Bar chart showing emissions for each portfolio and the origin of the emissions (domestic-direct, domestic-indirect, imported) and the industry in which the emissions are generated — Figure 1: Estimated domestic and imported GHG emissions (thousands of tonnes of CO2 equivalent) by portfolio and generating industry. Scottish Government Budget 2021-22

2.2. Emissions by Industry Source

22. Total emissions broken down by industry are shown in Figure 2. Some 28 per cent of the Scottish Government's carbon footprint is caused by the use of Energy, Water and Waste, followed by Manufacturing (20 per cent) and Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (18 per cent).

Pie chart showing total emissions from overall government spending broken down by which industry emissions are generated in — Figure 2: Overall Government spending - Industry sector share of emissions (domestic direct and indirect, plus imported GHG emissions)

2.3. Domestic and Imported Emissions

23. In addition to direct and indirect domestic emissions, the assessment takes into account the emissions generated outside of Scotland in the production of imported goods purchased as a result of Government spending (e.g. food, machinery, IT equipment).

24. Figure 3 demonstrates that imported emissions make up around a half of emissions from Budget spend. There is however a difference between the sources of domestic and imported emissions. Expenditure on Energy, Water and Waste accounts for the largest share of domestic emissions, while expenditure on Manufacturing generates the largest share of imported emissions (followed by Energy, Water and Waste).