Cereal and oilseed rape harvest: Methodology

Changes to methodology

First and final harvest estimates 2022

Some agricultural statistics and products were paused during the Agricultural Statistics Transformation Programme while a high quality system fit for the future was being developed. This large-scale transformation programme aims to improve evidence collected and made available in line with the changing requirements of data users, the agricultural sector, business practices and land use. To allow for this work to take place all non-legislative work was paused. This pause was agreed with the Office for Statistical Regulation and data users.

Rural and Environmental Science and Analytical Services (RESAS) Statistics Team host regular events to provide updates on the programme. To find out more about the Agricultural Statistics Transformation Programme get in touch at transform.agricstats@gov.scot.

Paused products included the first estimates of the cereal and oilseed rape harvest. These were not produced for 2022.

Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (Defra) published official provisional cereal estimates for England in October. A first estimate for the UK was not published as first estimates for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland were not available. The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) consulted with industry and Defra to produce provisional production estimates for Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. These were combined with the provisional Defra England production figures to produce UK wheat and barley production estimates for the AHDB Early Balance Sheets published on 20 October 2022.

The June Agricultural Census and the Cereal Production and Disposal Survey were also paused. These would usually contribute towards final cereal harvest estimates.

Final estimates in 2022 use a different methodology. The 2022 final estimates of yield and production are based on land use areas estimated from Single Application Form (SAF) data returns, along with end of harvest crop yield estimates made at a Crop Report Meeting using the same methodology used to make first estimates of the cereal and oilseed rape harvest.

At a Crop Report Meeting a panel of experts from the Scottish cereal industry provide their final estimates of harvest yields and these are applied to final figures for areas sown. More information about this methodology is available under First estimates methodology.

In the absence of the June Agricultural Census land use areas were estimated from SAF data returns. SAF accounts for the majority of land area for cereals and oilseed rape. As such, no attempt is made to account for holdings that are not captured by SAF returns.

Final harvest estimates 2020

Final estimates in 2020 use a different methodology. In April 2020, it was announced in the RESAS Revised schedule of agricultural surveys and outputs that the Cereal Production Survey would be temporarily stopped during the COVID-19 Pandemic. The final 2020 estimate is based on a similar method to the first estimate, using industry intelligence and  information about historic trends. More information about this methodology is available under First estimates methodology. Area data is derived from the 2020 June Agricultural Census.