Cereal and oilseed rape harvest - first estimates: 2020

1. Introduction

Overall, 2020 is predicted to be a good year for the cereal harvest in Scotland, with total cereal production slightly higher than 2019.

It has been a good year for spring barley and oats with yield estimates expected to increase by 7 and 11 per cent. 

However, wet planting and harvesting conditions have contributed to decreases for winter crops. Particularly winter barley, where decreases in area and yield are predicted to lead to a 21 per cent decrease in production.

Variability is expected across Scotland, with some areas benefiting from milder winter conditions.

How first estimates are calculated

Our annual harvest first estimates are based on advice from industry experts on expected yields. We combine this with census results for the areas grown to estimate the total amount of production.

First estimates monitor cereal production

The EU and Scottish Government use the data as an early indicator of harvest problems.

First estimates are fairly accurate

The data collected on areas grown is very good. However, differences in the first and final yield estimates can vary as more information is collected once the harvest has been completed.