Changing the International Territorial Level geography for Scotland: consultation analysis

One of the main objectives of the proposals is to more closely align ITL regions with local authority boundaries. This is in line with ITL specifications and makes it easier to produce regional statistics. This would support the increased production of regional statistics across a wider range of topics, as discussed in the consultation document. This section considers the main consultation responses in relation to this objective.

Maps of the proposals are included in Annex A.

Lomond and Helensburgh

As part of the proposals to align ITL boundaries with local authority boundaries, the ‘Lomond and Helensburgh’ area (which is part of Argyll and Bute local authority) would move from the ‘East Dunbartonshire, West Dunbartonshire, and Helensburgh and Lomond’ ITL3 region and into the proposed ‘Highlands and Islands’ ITL3 region. Similarly it would move into the ‘Highlands and Islands’ ITL2 region.

The consultation received no objections to this aspect of the proposal, and it was supported by Argyll and Bute. It is therefore recommended that this change is implemented.

Recommendation: That the ‘Lomond and Helensburgh’ area is moved into the proposed Highlands and Islands Region at ITL3 and ITL2 levels.

Arran and Cumbrae

The proposals to align with local authority boundaries would also mean moving the islands of Arran and Cumbrae into the the North and East Ayrshire ITL3 region, and the Southern Scotland ITL2 region. This is because Arran and Cumbrae are part of the North Ayrshire local authority.

Some respondents objected to these islands being moved out of the Highland and Islands Region. These objections included:

• Arran and Cumbrae are more similar to other Scottish islands, and so should be grouped with the Highlands and Islands regions. This is due to strong cultural, social and economic similarities between Arran, Cumbrae and the other Scottish islands, and similarities with respect to some of the challenges they face.
• The proposed changes might impact on funding decisions related to these islands.
• The proposals might impact on policy decisions, leading to Arran and Cumbrae being treated differently to other islands.
• The proposals create a boundary that does not align with that used by Highlands and Islands Enterprise or Highlands and Islands Regional Economic Partnership, which may create confusion among users.
• Statistics would no longer align with the boundaries used by Highlands and Islands Enterprise or Highlands and Islands Regional Economic Partnership, who are key users of existing statistics, particularly in relation to economic statistics.

It is undoubtedly true that there are strong connections and similarities between Arran and Cumbrae and the Highlands and Islands, and with the other islands in particular. However, there are clearly also strong links with North Ayrshire. Arran and Cumbrae are part of the North Ayrshire local authority area, which means that many services are delivered by North Ayrshire Council, and data and statstics related to these services are collected by North Ayrshire Council.

Arran and Cumbrae are also grouped with North Ayrshire in a range of other contexts. For example, both Arran and Cumbrae are included in the NHS Ayrshire and Arran region, and the Police Scotland Ayrshire region. Arran and Cumbrae are also included in the Arran and Ayrshire Westminster constituency for UK elections, and the West Scotland Region for Scottish Parliament elections. Arran and Cumbrae are also covered by the Ayrshire Regional Growth deal.

While respondents expressed concerns that funding decisions may be impacted by the proposed changes, no specific funding decisions have been identified by the consultation. Were any future funding decisions to arise, it would normally be expected that organisations granting that funding would take responsibility for ensuring dicisions are made on the most appropriate data. Where decisions might relate to non-standard geographical units, it is usually possible to create bespoke statistics to support decision making.

Similarly with respect to policy impacts, no specific decisions have been identifed by the consultation that would be negatively impacted by these poposals. The Scottish Government is firmly committed to addressing challenges faced by islands, and accurate and relevant statistics about Scotland’s islands are vital to achieving those goals. However, ITL geographies would not be considered the most appropriate geographies for these purposes. This is because ITL geographies exist to facilitate regional comparisons, and the islands constitute only a minority of the population of the Highlands and Islands region.

To support decision making in relation to the islands, the Scottish Government has instead developed the Scottish Island Regions geography to support the production of statistics related to the islands. This geography includes Arran and Cumbrae, along with Bute, as one of nine island groups. A range of statstics are already produced using this geography, and it is expected that this will expand further in future.

It is recognised that the proposals do not align with the exisiting HIE and HIREP regions, and this could potentially cause confusion for users. This risk could however be mitigated by clear communication by statistics producers.

The consultation also found differing views within the Highlands and Islands region. While objections to the proposals were recieved from HIE and HIREP, Shetland, and North Ayrshire, the proposals were supported by Moray and Argyll and Bute local authorities.

Nevertheless, it is clear that there are important existing users who may be impacted by these proposals. Before the proposals can be implemented then, it must be clearly demonstrated that the benefits to statistical production across a wide range of topics are sufficient to justify making changes that will impact on existing users. It must also be clearly demonstrated that the needs of these users can continue to be met using alternative statistical geographies.

It is notable that if the Lomond and Helensburgh area is moved into the Highlands and Islands region, then the difference between the proposed regions and regions which include Arran and Cumbrae in the Highlands and Islands will be relatively small. In this case, if Arran and Cumbrae remain within the Highlands and Islands region, it may be possible in many cases to produce reasonable estimates using data available at local authority level where it is not possible to produce exact figures. This may reduce the challenges for statistical production that currently exist for the regions that do not align with local authority boundaries. It also means however that statistics producers will be required to carefully consider the risks of disclosing personal data relating to the islands of Arran and Cumbrae and implement appropriate statistical disclosure control to manage that risk.

Recommendation: There are good statistical reasons for supporting these proposals in principle, and the responses against the proposals are limited.

Taking into account the user feedback however, which demonstrates a strong opinion from those affected by the change in island communities and in other areas of Scotland, it is recommended that Arran and Cumbrae remain within the Highlands and Islands Region unless or until statistical producers can demonstrate that the benefits to statistical production outweigh the impact that the changes will have on existing users. In addition, the requirements of these users should continue to be met through other statistical geographies.

If these changes are not implemented, it is likely that some issues around statistical production will remain. It is therefore also recommended that protocols are developed for producing estimates for the impacted ‘Highlands and Islands’ and ‘North and East Ayrshire’ regions where it is not possible to produce exact statistics that do not align with local authority boundaries. In some cases, it is likely that estimates for these regions will need be produced based on local authority statistics where that is the only available data.