Child poverty - monitoring and evaluation: policy evaluation framework

Introducing the child poverty evaluation strategy

To set the context, this framework presents first the overarching evaluation strategy on child poverty. This is relevant because the same hierarchy of evaluation will be used at an individual policy level. The overarching evaluation approach consists of three key elements.

1. First, monitoring the progress on the four child poverty targets: relative poverty, absolute poverty, low income and material deprivation, and persistent poverty.

2. In order to understand how the targets are (or not) moving in the right direction, the measurement frameworks looks at the drivers of poverty: income from employment, cost of living, and income for social security and benefits in-kind.

3. And to uncover why the drivers are moving we aim to monitor the impact of policies and external factors on child poverty and its drivers.

Figure 1: Child poverty evaluation strategy

Monitoring child poverty targets

• Relative poverty
• Absolute poverty
• Low income and material deprivation
• Persistent poverty

Monitoring the drivers of child poverty

• Income from employment
• Cost of living
• Income from social security and benefits in-kind

Assessing the impact of policies and external factors on child poverty and its drivers

• This includes evaluation of policies and initiatives, as well as cumulative impact assessment of the combination of policies

This framework concentrates on how to assess the impact of policies on child poverty and its drivers.

This framework splits the approach into four themes (see also Figure 2).

• Theme 1. Evaluating the impact of policies on child poverty. Identifies the main outcomes of the policy and the link between policy outcomes and child poverty outcomes.
• Theme 2. Impact on targets. Sets out the rationale, and potential approach, to identifying which target of poverty the policy is likely to impact and how to assess progress against it.
• Theme 3. Impact on drivers. Helps to understand how the targets will be influenced. This entails clearly establishing the link between the policy and which driver of poverty it is likely to influence. This theme is divided into three sections which relate to each of the drivers.
• Enhanced life chances. In addition, there are some policies that aim to enhance life chances for individuals or families – with the ultimate aim of impacting on one of the drivers of poverty.
• Theme 4. Reach / targeting. Sets out how to define and identify the key target audiences likely to benefit from policies that tackle child poverty.

Figure 2. Themes on child poverty evaluation

Theme 1: Evaluation impact of policies on child poverty. This includes overarching delivery outputs and the implementation journey.

Theme 2: Impact on targets. The four child poverty targets are: relative poverty, absolute poverty, low income and material deprivation, and persistent poverty.

Theme 3: Impact drivers. The three main drivers of poverty are: income from employment, cost of living and income from social security and benefits in-kind. In addition, we look at policies which are focused on enhanced life chances.

Theme 4: Reach/targeting. This theme focuses on two main areas. First, identification of low income households, households in poverty. Secondly, understanding what are the priority family types. That is the families most at risk of being in poverty: lone parents, families with babies under 1, mothers aged under 25, minority ethnic families, families with a disabled person and families with three or more children.

The key evaluation questions for each theme are set out below.

Theme 1: Policy alignment

1.1 What is the policy aiming to achieve?

1.2 Is child poverty part of policy outcomes?

1.3 Is the policy delivering against expectations towards reducing child poverty?

Theme 2: Impact on four child poverty targets

2.1 What is the potential size of impact on child poverty targets?

2.2 What type of impact is anticipated (direct/indirect)?

2.3 What is the certainty of impact?

Theme 3: Impact on drivers of child poverty

3.1 What drivers of poverty is the policy aiming to tackle?

3.2 What child poverty outcomes is the policy aiming to achieve? (short/medium/long term)

3.3 What is the likelihood of achieving anticipated outcomes?

Theme 4: Reach/Targeting of policies

4.1 Who is the policy aiming to target/ reach? (universal/targeted policy)

4.2 How many households/people living in poverty/low income is the policy aiming to reach?

4.3 Is the policy targeting those in poverty (e.g. those known to be in poverty or priority family types most at risk of poverty?

Taking each of these themes in turn.