Child poverty - monitoring and evaluation: policy evaluation framework

Annex A: Child poverty data

What are the child poverty targets?

The Child Poverty (Scotland) 2017 Act includes four income based targets to be met by 2030 and interim targets to be met by 2023. These are:

• Relative poverty. This is the proportion of children living in households with equivalised incomes below 60% of the median UK income in the current year. This target measures low income relative to the rest of society. Interim target 18%. Final target of 10% by 2030/31.
• Absolute poverty. This is the proportion of children living in households with equivalised incomes below 60% of the median UK income in 2010/11 adjusted for inflation. This target provides an overview of low living standards relative to 2010/11 when the first UK poverty act came into force. Interim target of 14%. Final target of 5% by 2030/31.
• Low income and material deprivation. This is the proportion of children in households with equivalised incomes below 70% of the median UK income and going without certain basic goods and services. Interim target of 8%. Final target of 5% by 2030/31.
• Persistent poverty. This is the proportion of children who have lived in relative poverty in three or more of the last four years. The target measures those who are in poverty for several years. The interim target is 8%, with a final target of 5% by 2030/31.

Where can I find the latest data?

Annual child poverty statistics are published on the Poverty and Income Inequality in Scotland 2018-21 - analytical report (data.gov.scot). Due to the impact of COVID-19 on data collection data for 2018-21 is not reliable. The latest update refers to 2017-20 and is available on Child poverty summary (data.gov.scot). The next update is anticipated in March/April 2023.

The main poverty data source, the Family Resources Survey, provides information at a national level only. If it is necessary to look at poverty rates at a local level, the first alternative data source partially comparable to the national-level statistics is the Poverty and Income Inequality in Scotland annual publication. These statistics are available for a range of local areas including local authority, ward and data zone level. Children in low income families: local area statistics - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk).

In what ways can policies impact on targets?

The child poverty targets are all income based. This means that policies that support changes to household incomes are likely to have an impact on the targets. For example, this could be by increasing income from employment, reducing cost of living or increasing income from social security and benefits in-kind.

Specifically, policies that are highly targeted at households in poverty, are likely to support relative poverty and, in the longer term, persistent poverty. Policies that are highly focused on reducing cost of living, are likely to have an impact on low income and material deprivation. But this can have a positive effect on other targets only where policies reach those who are below the threshold for relative poverty. For example, if a policy was to reduce costs of living for all, it could end up doing that primarily for middle income families and, therefore, the overall impact on relative and persistent poverty could be regressive.