Children, young people and families outcomes framework - core wellbeing indicators: analysis

2. How I grow and develop

The ‘How I grow and develop’ side of the My World Triangle relates to various aspects of physical, cognitive, social and psychological development.

Key Findings

• Looking at pre-school child development, 18% of children were reported as having a developmental concern at their 27-30 month review in 2021-22. This is an increase from 14% in 2019-20 and 15% in 2020-21.
• Developmental concerns were more likely to be reported for looked after children.
• In terms of achievement, the percentage of children in P1, P4 and P7 achieving expected Curriculum for Excellence levels in 2021-22 was 71% in literacy and 78% in numeracy. This was slightly higher than the previous year but roughly similar to the preceding years.
• 93.5% of 2021/22 school leavers were in a positive follow-up destination 9 months after the end of the school year.
• In all three cases, outcomes were poorer for children with additional support needs.
• Beyond formal attainment, 78% of children and young people were participating in positive leisure activities.
• Looking at physical health, 59% of children and young people in P5 to S6 had the recommended amount of at least one hour of exercise the day before the survey.
• 22% of children and young people ate fruit and vegetables at least once a day.
• Looking at mental health and mental wellbeing, the average WEMWBS score, a measure of positive mental wellbeing, for young people in S2 to S6 was 45.
• 47% of children had a slightly raised, high, or very high Strength and Difficulties Score indicating the presence of emotional or developmental problems.
• Across all measures, outcomes were consistently patterned by area deprivation, with children living in the 20% least deprived areas displaying better outcomes than those in the 20% most deprived areas.
• Many of the indicators also displayed substantial differences by sex, although the picture was more complex. Outcomes were better for girls in pre-school child development and literacy. However, outcomes were better for boys for both mental health measures, physical activity, and participation in positive leisure activities.

2.1 Pre-school Child Development

The pre-school child development indicator is the percentage of children with a developmental concern at their 27-30 month child health review. This was chosen as it is a widely used and agreed measure of pre-school development and is broadly a mid-point between birth and age 5 years.

This indicator relates to the Nurtured, Healthy and Achieving outcomes.

18% of children were reported as having a developmental concern at their 27-30 month review in 2021-22. As Figure 2.1 shows, there were marked drops in the proportion of children with a developmental concern from 19% in 2013-14 to a low of 14% in 2018-2019 followed by a slight increase in 2020-21 and a further increase in 2021-22.

The main socio-demographic differences within this variable were:

• There was a substantially higher proportion of developmental concerns amongst boys (23%) than girls (13%).
• There was a higher proportion of developmental concerns in more deprived areas, with 26% in the most deprived areas and 11% in the least deprived areas.
• The percentage of children reported as having a concern varied substantially by ethnic group. Children in the White Other British group were least likely to have a concern (13%) while children in the Black, Caribbean or African group were most likely to have a concern (27%).
• Looked after children were twice as likely to have a concern as other children (38% compared with 18%).
• The percentage of children with a concern was similar across those whose main language spoken was English and those where English was not the first language spoken.

2.2 Literacy

The literacy indicator is the percentage of children in P1, P4 and P7 achieving expected Curriculum for Excellence (CfE) levels in literacy (reading, writing, listening and talking). This was chosen as it is the main measure of achievement at younger ages and is aligned with the National improvement Framework for Scottish Education and the Local Government Benchmarking Framework.

This indicator relates to the Achieving and Included outcomes.

In the academic year 2021/22, 71% of P1, P4 and P7 pupils combined achieved expected CfE levels in literacy.

As Figure 2.2. shows, this is an increase from 67% in 2020/21, but similar to the previous years. The closures of schools between March 2020 and January 2021 because of the pandemic are likely to have had a negative effect on some pupils’ progress and attainment.

*Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, data is not available for 2019/20.

The main socio-demographic differences within this indicator were:

• Girls were substantially more likely to have achieved expected levels (76%) than boys (65%).
• The percentage of children achieving expected levels increased substantially as area deprivation decreased, from 61% in the 20% most deprived areas to 82% in SIMD the 20% most deprived areas.
• Children with additional support needs were substantially less likely to have achieved expected levels (46%) than those with no additional support needs (79%).
• There was substantial variation in the percentage of children achieving expected levels by ethnic group. The percentage was highest in the Asian – Chinese (83%) and Asian – Indian (80%) groups. The lowest percentages were in the White – Scottish, Asian – Pakistani and Asian – Other groups (all 70%).
• Children with English as an additional language were less likely to have achieved expected levels (64%) than those with English as a main language (71%).
• The percentage of children achieving expected levels varied substantially by urban-rural classification, although not in a consistent direction. The highest percentage was 73% in large urban areas and accessible rural areas, and the lowest was 61% in remote small towns.

2.3 Numeracy

The numeracy indicator is the percentage of children in P1, P4 and P7 achieving expected Curriculum for Excellence (CfE) levels in numeracy. This was chosen as it is the main measure of achievement at younger ages and is aligned with the National improvement Framework for Scottish Education and the Local Government Benchmarking Framework.

This indicator relates to Achieving and Included outcomes.

In the academic year 2021/22, 78% of P1, P4 and P7 pupils combined achieved expected CfE levels in numeracy.

As Figure 2.3 shows, this is an increase from 75% in 2020/21, but similar to previous years. Again, the closures of schools between March 2020 and January 2021 because of the pandemic are likely to have had a negative effect on some pupils’ progress and attainment.

*Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, data is not available for 2019/20

The main socio-demographic differences within this indicator were:

• The percentage of children achieving expected levels increased as area deprivation decreased, from 70% in the 20% most deprived areas to 88% in the 20% least deprived areas.
• Children with additional support needs were substantially less likely to have achieved expected levels (57%) than those with no additional support needs (86%).
• There was substantial variation in the percentage of children achieving expected levels by ethnic group. The percentage was highest in the Asian – Chinese (92%) and Asian – Indian (86%). The lowest percentages were in the Asian-Pakistani (77%) and White – Scottish (78%) groups.
• The percentage of children achieving expected levels varied substantially by urban-rural classification, although not in a consistent direction. The highest percentage was 81% in accessible rural areas, and the lowest was 70% in remote small towns.
• The percentage of children with English as an additional language achieving expected levels (75%) was slightly lower than the percentage of children with English as a main language (78%).
• There was no difference in the percentage of boys and girls achieving expected levels.

2.4 Positive Destinations

The positive destinations of school leavers indicator is the percentage of all school leavers in positive destinations 9 months after the end of the school year. This was chosen as it gives an indication of post-school transitions.

This indicator relates to Achieving and Included wellbeing outcomes.

93.5% of 2021/22 school leavers were in a positive follow-up destination at 9 month follow-up. As Figure 2.4. shows, this was a slight increase from the previous year (93.2%).

The main socio-demographic differences within this indicator were:

• The percentage of school leavers in a positive follow-up destination increased as area deprivation decreased, from 89.7% in the 20% most deprived areas to 96.7% in the 20% least deprived areas.
• The percentage of school leavers with additional support needs in a positive follow-up destination (90.1%) was lower than of those with no additional support needs (95.7%).
• There was slight variation in the percentage of school leavers in a positive follow-up destination by ethnic group. The percentage was highest in the Asian – Indian group (98.5%) and lowest in the White – Scottish and White – non Scottish groups (93.4% and 93.2% respectively).
• The percentage of school leavers assessed or declared disabled in a positive follow-up destination (89.2%) was lower than of those not assessed or declared disabled (93.6%).
• There was slight variation in the percentage of school leavers in positive follow-up destinations by urban-rural classification. The percentage was highest in accessible rural and remote rural areas (95.1% and 94.8% respectively) and lowest in remote small towns (92.3%).

The percentage of students in positive follow-up destinations was broadly similar by sex although female school leavers were slightly more likely than male school leavers to be in a positive destination (94.0% compared to 92.9%).

2.5 Leisure activities

The positive activities measure is the percentage of young people in S1 to S3 who said they had participated in any activity from the following list of leisure activities in the last year: buddying/mentoring programme at school; voluntary work; charity event; drama / acting / singing / dancing group; religious activity; youth organisations; Duke of Edinburgh; and sports clubs. This measure is consistent with a national indicator in the National Performance Framework and provides an indication of achievement outside of an educational context and a broad definition of play though including a range of leisure activities known to be important for wellbeing of children and young people. Please note that this indicator comes from the Health and Wellbeing Census and figures presented here are the aggregated results for those 16 local authority areas who collected data and are not weighted to population totals.

This indicator relates to Active and Respected outcomes.

In 2021-22, 78% of young people in S1 to S3 had participated in positive leisure activities.

The main socio-demographic differences within this indicator were:

• The percentage of young people participating in positive leisure activities decreased by stage, from 81% in S1 to 75% in S3.
• The percentage of boys participating in positive leisure activities was 80%, slightly higher than the percentage of girls (76%).
• The percentage of young people participating in positive leisure activities increased substantially as area deprivation decreased, from 70% in the 20% most deprived areas to 86% in the 20% least deprived areas.
• There was variation in the percentage of young people participating in positive leisure activities by urban-rural classification, although not in a consistent direction. The highest percentage was 81% in accessible rural and remote rural areas, and the lowest was 74% in remote small towns.
• The percentage of young people participating in positive leisure activities varied substantially by ethnic group. The groups with the highest percentage were African – Other (87%), African – Scottish/British (85%) and Asian – Indian (85%). The groups with the lowest percentage were Asian – Chinese (68%) and White – Polish (72%).
• The percentage of young people participating in positive leisure activities was lower for those with additional support needs (71%) than those with no additional support needs (79%).

The percentage of young people participating in positive leisure activities was broadly similar for those with and without caring responsibilities, and for those with and without a long term illness.

2.6 Physical activity

The physical activity indicator is the percentage of children and young people in P5 to S6 that had at least one hour of exercise the day before the survey. This was chosen as it is a topline measure of physical activity, and a proxy for the ‘meets physical activity guidelines’ measure which requires a large number of sub questions and is available only at national level from the Scottish Health Survey. Physical activity includes low impact activity like walking, not just exercise. Please note that this indicator comes from the Health and Wellbeing Census and figures presented here are the aggregated results for those 16 local authority areas who collected data and are not weighted to population totals.

This indicator relates to Active and Respected outcomes.

In 2021-22, 59% of children and young people in P5 to S6 had at least one hour of exercise the day before the survey.

The main socio-demographic differences within this indicator were:

• The percentage of children and young people who had at least one hour of exercise varied substantially by stage, although not in a consistent direction. The percentage was lower in P7 to S3 and lower in both the youngest and oldest age groups. The highest percentages were in P7 (63%) and S2 (62%), and the lowest in S6 (50%).
• A substantially higher percentage of boys (64%) had at least one hour of exercise than girls (54%). Boys were more likely to have had an hour of exercise than girls in all stages, although the difference was smaller at the youngest stages.
• The percentage of children and young people who had at least one hour of exercise increased as area deprivation decreased, from 54% in the 20% most deprived areas to 64% in the 20% the least deprived areas.
• The percentage of children and young people who had at least one hour of exercise varied substantially by ethnic group. The groups with the highest percentage were White – Irish (62%), White – Other British (60%) and White – Scottish (60%). The groups with the lowest percentage were Asian – Pakistani (43%), Asian – Bangladeshi (45%) and Asian – Other (45%).
• 50% of children and young people with additional support needs had at least one hour of exercise, substantially lower than the 60% of children with no additional support needs.

Differences in physical activities were relatively small (4 percentage points) by long term health condition and urban-rural classification. Percentages were broadly similar by caring responsibilities.

2.7 Diet

The diet indicator is the percentage of children and young people in P5 to S3 and S5 to S6 who eat both fruit and vegetables every day. This was chosen as a proxy for the nationally recommended ‘five portions of fruit or vegetables a day,’ which requires a large number of sub questions and is available only at national level from the Scottish Health Survey. Please note that this indicator comes from the Health and Wellbeing Census and figures presented here are the aggregated results of the 16 local authority areas who collected data, and so are not weighted to population totals.

This indicator relates to Healthy, Nurtured and Responsible outcomes.

22% of children and young people in P5 to S3 and S5 to S6 ate both fruit and vegetables at least once a day in 2021-22.

The main socio-demographic differences within this indicator were:

• There was slight variation in the percentage of children and young people eating both fruit and vegetables every day by stage, and it was not in a consistent direction. The highest percentage was 24% in S6, and the lowest was 21% in P5 and S3.
• The percentage of children and young people who ate both fruit and vegetables at least once a day was slightly higher for girls (24%) than boys (20%).
• The percentage of children and young people who ate both fruit and vegetables at least once a day varied substantially by area deprivation. The lowest was 14% in the 20% most deprived areas and the highest was 33% in the 20% least deprived areas.
• The percentage of children and young people who ate both fruit and vegetables at least once a day varied by urban-rural classification, although not in a consistent direction. The highest percentage was 27% in remote rural areas, and the lowest was 20% in other urban areas.
• The percentage of children and young people who ate both fruit and vegetables at least one a day varied substantially by ethnic group. The groups with the highest percentage were Asian – Chinese (31%), Mixed or multiple ethnic groups (30%) and White – Irish (30%). The groups with the lowest percentage were Caribbean or Black – Other (11%) and African – Other (13%).
• The percentage of children and young people with additional support needs who ate both fruit and vegetables once a day was 17%, lower than the 23% of children and young people with no additional support needs.
• The percentage of children and young people with caring responsibilities who ate both fruit and vegetables at least once a day was 19%, lower than the 25% of those with no caring responsibilities.
• The percentage of children and young people who ate both fruit and vegetables at least once a day was roughly similar among those with and without a long term illness.

2.8 Mental wellbeing (WEMWBS)

This mental health and mental wellbeing indicator is the mean score on the Warwick Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Score (WEMWBS) for children and young people in S2 to S6. This was chosen as the most commonly used measure of positive mental wellbeing. It is an average score based on a set of 14 positively worded items. Each item is scored from 1 to 5 (‘none of the time’ to ‘all of the time’), giving a total score range of 14 to 70 with higher scores indicating better mental wellbeing. Please note that this indicator comes from the Health and Wellbeing Census and figures presented here are the aggregated results for those 16 local authority areas who collected data and are not weighted to population totals.

This indicator relates to Healthy, Nurtured and Included outcomes.

Overall, the average WEMWBS score among children and young people in S2 to S6 was 45.4 in 2021-22.

The main socio-demographic differences within this indicator were:

• The average score by stage was lowest at 44.3 in S4 to and highest at 46.6 in S2.
• The average score was higher for boys (48.1) than girls (42.8).
• The average score increased as area deprivation decreased, from 44.4 in the 20% most deprived areas to 46.4 in the 20% least deprived areas.
• The average score was 41.2 for children and young people with a long term illness, higher than the average score of 47.4 for those with no long term illness.
• The average score was lowest in remote small towns (44.8) and highest in accessible rural areas (45.8)
• There was slight variation in the WEMWBS score by ethnic group. The groups with the highest average scores were Arab (48.0) and African – Other (47.9).The groups with the lowest average scores were Asian – Chinese (45.0), Black or Caribbean -British/Scottish (45.2) and White – Other British (45.2).
• The average score was 44.8 for those with additional support needs, and 45.5 for those with no additional support needs.
• The average score for those with caring responsibilities was 44.3 and 45.9 for those with no caring responsibilities.

2.9 Mental health (SDQ)

This mental health and mental wellbeing indicator is the percentage of young people in S2 to S6 with slightly raised, high or very high Strength and Difficulties score. This was chosen as it measures emotional, behavioural and developmental difficulties. It is based on 20 statements relating to the presence of emotional, conduct, hyperactivity and peer problems. Each question is scored between 0 (not true) and 2 (certainly true), resulting in a total SDQ score between 0 and 40. Scores are banded into four categories: ‘close to average’, indicating the absence of problems; and ‘slightly raised, ‘high’ and ‘very high’, indicating the presence of problems of different severity. Please note that this indicator comes from the Health and Wellbeing Census and figures presented here are the aggregated results for those 16 local authority areas who collected data and are not weighted to population totals.

This indicator relates to Healthy, Nurtured and Included outcomes.

47% of young people in S2 to S6 had a Slightly Raised, High, or Very High score in 2021-22.

The main socio-demographic differences within this indicator were:

• The percentage of young people with a Slightly Raised, High, or Very High score varied by stage. The highest percentage was 50% in S4, and the lowest 41% in S6.
• A substantially higher percentage of girls had a Slightly Raised, High, or Very High score (58%) compared with boys (36%). The gap between boys and girls was highest in S2 (23 percentage points) and narrowed consistently across stages to 17 percentage points in S6.
• The percentage of children with Slightly Raised, High, or Very High scores decreased substantially as area deprivation decreased, from 54% in the 20% most deprived areas to 41% in the 20% least deprived areas.
• The percentage of children with Slightly Raised, High, or Very High scores varied substantially by ethnic group. The highest percentage was in the white Scottish (49%) and White Irish (47%), and the lowest percentages were in the African – Other (31%) and Asian – Chinese (32%) groups.
• The percentage of children with additional support needs who had Slightly Raised, High, or Very High scores was 55%, higher than for children without additional support needs (47%).
• The percentage of children with caring responsibilities who had Slightly Raised, High, or Very High was 59%, substantially higher than for those with no caring responsibilities (43%).
• The percentage of children with a long term health condition who had Slightly Raised, High, or Very High scores was 72%, almost double the percentage of children without a long term health condition (37%).
• The percentage of children with Slightly Raised, High, or Very High scores was highest in accessible small towns (49%) and lowest in accessible rural areas (46%).