Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Bill: position paper

The purpose of the Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Bill (“the Bill”) is to amend the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 (“the 2009 Act”) in response to the Climate Change Committee’s (“CCC”) advice that Scotland’s interim emissions reduction target for 2030 is beyond what can be achieved. This built upon repeated advice from the CCC that meeting the 2030 target set by Parliament would be extremely challenging.

As announced by Màiri McAllan, Cabinet Secretary for Net Zero and Energy, in a Ministerial Statement on 18 April 2024, the Bill will seek to establish a carbon budget approach to target setting, with budgets set through secondary legislation using the latest advice from the CCC once available. It will also make provision for a new Climate Change Plan (“CCP”) to be published that reflects the carbon budgets. The target of net zero emissions by 2045 will not be changed, nor will the legal commitment to our just transition principles.

Carbon Budgets 

As noted by the CCC, annual emissions targets are highly vulnerable to year-to-year fluctuations in emissions, for example, due to particularly cold winters or unexpected events such as a global pandemic. Multi-year carbon budgets can, therefore, provide a more reliable framework for sustained progress in emissions reduction, with volatility smoothed out over the budget period. Carbon budgets are an established model for assessment of emissions reductions used by the governments of other nations including Japan, France, Wales and the UK. 

The 2009 Act set annual targets along a straight-line pathway between the decadal interim targets, which does not accurately reflect the realities of emissions reduction movements and climate policymaking. This position is reflected by the CCC, who have advised that carbon budgets are the most appropriate indicator of underlying progress in emissions reduction, most recently in their letter of 14 May 2024 on the design and implementation of carbon budgets in Scotland. The Scottish Government, therefore, is seeking to establish five-yearly carbon budgets, based on the CCC’s recommendation that this length of budget is the most suitable. These would be more reflective of the realities of long-term decarbonisation policy planning and will be based on the latest decarbonisation pathway for Scotland. 

A carbon budget would set a limit on the amount of greenhouse gases emitted in Scotland over a five-year period, measured in the actual number of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent prescribed for a given period, or in terms of a percentage reduction compared to the baseline. At the end of each budget period, an assessment would be made regarding whether or not the budget had been met.

The carbon budgets would continue to include emissions from international aviation and shipping. There would also be no provision to “carry over” emissions from one carbon budget to another.

Setting Carbon Budgets 

It is important that our carbon budgets are set using the latest independent advice from experts, especially the CCC. Given that the CCC will not be able to provide such advice within the timeframe for this Bill – it has advised that this could not be provided before Spring 2025, given their current work on UK-wide emissions reduction pathways – the Bill itself will not seek to set carbon budgets. Instead, it will enable budgets to be set through secondary legislation via the affirmative procedure. The setting of carbon budgets is expected to occur once the latest evidence and analysis on carbon budget levels has been received.

The Bill will require that secondary legislation is brought forward to set a carbon budget for 2026 to 2030 and each successive period of five years, up to and including the net zero target year in 2045.

Climate Change Plan Timing 

The Bill will amend the current deadline to finalise the next CCP in order to align with the timescale for carbon budgets. This alignment will provide a direct relationship between the five-year periods of the carbon budgets and CCP so that policies and actions are informed by the emissions reductions targets set through each carbon budget.

The CCC have indicated that they will provide advice on carbon budgets levels in Spring 2025. The Bill will therefore require that the CCP is brought forward as soon as practicable after the carbon budget levels are set through secondary legislation. 

Annual Reporting 

The Bill will maintain the current rhythm of annual reporting on greenhouse gas emissions and on the CCP. Reports on the CCP will remain unchanged, with Ministers required each year to lay before the Scottish Parliament a report on each substantive chapter of the most recent CCP (as per section 35B of the 2009 Act).

Ministers would also still be required to lay in Parliament an annual report on emissions reduction. This would indicate the percentage by which Scottish emissions are lower than the baseline. At the end of each carbon budget period, these reports would also include an indication of whether Scotland’s carbon budget target for that period had been met. 

Conclusion 

This note reflects the current plans and intentions of the Scottish Government on the proposed Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Bill. These are subject to change prior to the introduction of this legislation to Parliament after summer recess, on timelines to be agreed with Parliamentary authorities.