Climate change monitoring report 2024
The fourth annual statutory monitoring report against the updated 2018 Climate Change Plan, as per the Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019.
Footnotes
1 Energy Performance Certificate
2 Energy Efficiency Rating
3 Energy Performance Certificate
4 Energy Efficiency Rating
5 A ‘clean heating system’ does not produce any greenhouse gas emissions at the point of use.
7 Commercial sector heat consumption includes consumption other than Industrial, Transport and Domestic consumption, and will include some Agriculture and Public Sector consumption depending on the end-use.
8 Note the 2020 figure has been revised upwards (from 11,170 GWh) since the 2023 Monitoring report.
9 5.6 TWh of renewable heat output was produced in 2022, when provisional demand for non-electrical heat was estimated at 71.3 TWh.
10 The figure for 2020 is 24.2 tCO2e/£mGVA. This is lower than the figure presented in last year’s Monitoring Report (31.1 tCO2e/£mGVA). The emission intensity of Scotland’s service sector for years prior to 2021 was calculated using an unpublished sectoral breakdown of quarterly national accounts. The emission intensity for 2021 and previous years has now been revised to use the published breakdown of GVA for Scotland’s service sector.
11 Our previous CCP Monitoring Report, for 2023, reported data for this indicator for the period Q1 to Q4 2021 and showed that 1,829 records reported a space-heating demand intensity of 20 kW/m2/year (8.1% of EPCs lodged during this period). Subsequent analysis finds that the corresponding figures for 2022 are 1,877 records (8.1%).
12 Scottish House Condition Survey results for 2022 have been assessed to be comparable in the most part to 2019 and earlier years. However, as noted in section 1.1.5 of the Methodological and Technical notes there is evidence to suggest that social and private rented households, who have higher rates of fuel poverty, may be under-represented in the 2022 achieved sample and owner-occupied households, who have lower rates of fuel poverty, may be over-represented. Due to this, national level estimates of fuel poverty may be slightly under-estimated, however we expect any effects to be minor, especially in the context of other key drivers of fuel poverty such as fuel prices.
13 From 2021 methodological improvements were introduced to the measurement of fuel poverty in the SHCS. Analysis had shown that some methodological improvements such as adding imputed housing costs have worked to increase the fuel poverty rate, while others such as including the incomes of all members in the household have worked to decrease the fuel poverty rate. This has had a broadly neutral effect on the overall national fuel poverty rate. As such while the 2022 rate was calculated using an updated methodology, comparisons can be drawn with previous rates, although caution is urged when drawing any conclusions in relation to the overall national fuel poverty rate, due to slight tenure bias in the achieved 2022 sample.
14 Renewable Heat Incentive statistics - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk), March 2023
15 Renewable Heat Incentive statistics - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk), March 2023
16 Boiler Upgrade Scheme statistics - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
17 Scottish whole energy system scenarios | Climate XChange
18 Future Energy Scenarios (FES) | ESO (nationalgrideso.com)
19 Smart meters in Great Britain, quarterly update March 2023 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk). The figure reported here is not comparable with the figure reported last year (due to a change in data source). This year's data is drawn from DESNZ’s Q1 2023 Smart Meters Statistics publication, which provides the regional breakdown of smart meter penetration.
20 ORR Rail infrastructure and assets, April 2022 to March 2023.
21 ORR Rail infrastructure and assets, April 2022 to March 2023.
22 Scottish Government Hydrogen Policy Statement
23 Scottish Government Hydrogen Action Plan
24 ORR Rail infrastructure and assets, April 2022 to March 2023.
25 ORR Rail infrastructure and assets, April 2022 to March 2023.
26 Deep decarbonisation pathways for Scottish industries: research report - gov.scot (https://www.gov.scot/publications/deep-decarbonisation-pathways-scottish-industries/)
27 From a 2015 baseline
28 From 2015 baseline
29 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/rhi-monthly-deployment-data-march-2023-quarterly-edition
30 RHI monthly deployment data: March 2023 (Quarterly edition): RHI monthly deployment data: March 2023 (Quarterly edition) - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
31 By 2025 reduce total waste arising in Scotland by 15% against 2011 levels;
32 See pEPR final IA p10: Impact Assessment (publishing.service.gov.uk)
33 Carbon sequestration baseline March 2020
34 Area of peatland restored is a proxy measure which doesn’t directly represent the reduction in emissions, an emissions reduction indicator may be adopted in the future. Also, the current per annum area restoration target figure is under review and may be increased, updates will be reflected in future annual reporting.
35 Forestry and Land Scotland, NatureScot, Scottish Water, Crown Estate Scotland, Scottish Ministers Crofting Estate and Ministry of Defence
36 The Scottish Government also commissioned an independent analysis projecting future employment in the Energy Production Sector to inform the draft ESJTP. This can be found in Chapter 3 of the report and is available here.
37 This is low carbon renewable employment (LCREE), and this chart does not include Scottish employment in CCUS or NETs sectors, as neither have been deployed in Scotland to date.
Contact
Email: climate.change@gov.scot
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