Climate Change Plan: third report on proposals and policies 2018-2032 – technical annex

Agriculture

Sector overview:

The Agriculture sector includes all energy consuming processes related to Agriculture, as well as land use and non-energy processes. Relative to the UK, Agriculture is a more important sector in Scotland. Scottish TIMES considers the energy demands for heat and transport related to agricultural activities. It also includes baseline land use emissions, as well as emissions from agricultural practices. Non-energy emissions were calculated exogenously following discussion with sector teams and mapped into Scottish TIMES.

Data inputs and additional constraints since the Draft Plan:

We have incorporated the latest 2015 Greenhouse Gas Inventory data, which has resulted in a revised emissions profile for non-energy agricultural emissions.

Agricultural transport and heat data has been inherited from UK TIMES, while fuel efficiency data has been adapted from figures sourced from Scotland's Rural College. Since the Draft Plan, the rate of change in agricultural transport demand has been revised to reflect the downward trend in baseline non-energy emissions.

Results:

The below chart breaks down emissions within the Agricultural sector by source. While energy emissions (from agricultural transport, given that agricultural heat is decarbonised by 2020) remain relatively constant throughout the period and amount to around 0.6 MtCO2e, non-energy emissions fall by over 9% between 2020 and 2032.

Figure 17: Agricultural emissions by component ( MtCO2e), TIMES model results