Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 interim target amendment regulations 2023

The Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 (Interim Target) Amendment Regulations 2023 

Statement under sections 2A(6), 2E(5) and 3B(4) of the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009.

Introduction

The Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 (Interim Target) Amendment Regulations 2023, if approved by the Scottish Parliament, will amend section 2(1)(a) of the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 (“the 2009 Act”) by modifying the percentage figure specified for the 2020 interim target.

The 2020 interim target is modified from 56% to 48.5%. This modification has the effect of adjusting the annual target figures for 2021 to 2029, in accordance with section 3(2) of the 2009 Act (annual targets: 2021 to year before net-zero year), as follows:

In accordance with sections 2A(2)(a) and (b) of the 2009 Act (modification of the interim targets), these Regulations are in response to, and consistent with, the most up-to-date advice received from the UK Climate Change Committee (“CCC”), advising that the 2020 interim target should be modified for the sole reason of a change in international carbon reporting practice. 

The 2020 interim target is the earliest interim target set by the 2009 Act, which means that the requirement under section 2A(2)(c) for the new percentage figure to be no lower than an earlier interim target year is met. As it is not proposed to adjust the 2045 net-zero emissions target year, the requirement under section 2A(2)(d) that an interim target must not be lower than 100% for a year which is the same as, or later than, the net-zero emissions target year is also met.      

Purpose of this statement

This statement, in accordance with sections 2A(6) and 3B(4) of the 2009 Act, sets out the reasons for modifying the 2020 interim target percentage figure, including consistency with the most up-to-date advice received from the CCC; and the extent to which the modification takes account of the target-setting criteria (as defined by section 2B of the 2009 Act).

In line with section 2E(5)(a) of the 2009 Act (Ministerial duties following request for advice), this statement also serves as the Scottish Ministers response to the CCC’s most recent advice about targets provided under sections 2C and 2D of the 2009 Act.  It is noted that a separate statutory response under section 9 of the 2009 Act (progress towards targets) is being developed to the CCC’s annual Scottish progress report published in December 2022. 

Background

Scottish Ministers must request the CCC to review Scotland’s greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets at least every five years. This is in accordance with section 2C(1) of the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 (inserted by section 6 of the Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019 (“the 2019 Act”)).

The Cabinet Secretary for Net Zero, Energy and Transport requested this advice from the CCC in April 2022. The CCC’s first review of Scottish emissions targets was published in December 2022 (‘CCC target advice’). Further advice was sought from the CCC under section 2D of the 2009 Act (power to seek additional advice), and provided in March 2023 confirming the CCC supports the modification of the 2020 interim target on the basis that it reflects a change in international carbon reporting practice (arrangements are being made to publish this advice on the CCC website). 

Ministerial duties following receipt of the CCC advice on targets

Section 2E of the 2009 Act sets out Ministerial duties following receipt of the CCC’s advice on targets. Some of these duties apply only where the CCC recommends adjusting the net-zero emissions target year or the multiplier figure reflecting the direct and indirect non-carbon dioxide climate change impacts of emissions at altitude from international aviation. As the CCC do not recommend a change to the net-zero target year or the aviation multiplier, these do not form part of this statement. 

Sections 2E(4) and (5) require that, in the event that the CCC’s advice states that a percentage figure for an interim target is not appropriate and that another figure would be appropriate, the Scottish Ministers must publish a statement within 3 months setting out how they intend to respond to that advice. Furthermore, in the event that the Scottish Ministers do not, within 12 months of receiving that advice, lay draft regulations under section 2A(1) of the 2009 Act to make the advised modification to that percentage figure, they must make a statement to the Scottish Parliament setting out the reasons for not doing so.

Response to CCC advice

This statement confirms the Scottish Ministers’ decision to accept the CCC’s advice to modify the 2020 interim target for the sole reason of a change in international carbon reporting practice and have laid, for approval of the Scottish Parliament, a draft of the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 (Interim Target) Amendment Regulations 2023 to make the advised adjustment to the 2020 interim target. Modifying the 2020 interim target, which has been achieved, is for the sole purpose of adjusting the annual targets for 2021 to 2029 which have not yet been reported, and will not “re-activate” any of the duties which flow from the 2020 target (i.e. the need to report to the Scottish Parliament on whether that target was met).

Reasons for modifying the 2020 interim target, and consistency with the most up-to-date advice received from the UK Climate Change Committee

The CCC target advice recommends that “Scotland’s annual targets in the 2020s should be adjusted” for technical reasons.

This is because the level of the 2020 interim target set by the 2019 Act was based on the CCC’s 2017 Scottish climate change bill advice using an older accounting methodology, before significant changes to the treatment of peatland emissions in the UK greenhouse gas inventory – from which the Scottish inventory is derived - following implementation into the UK greenhouse gas inventory of the 2013 wetlands supplement to the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidance on the compilation of greenhouse gas emissions data.

The CCC recommend that the annual targets from 2021 to 2029 be adjusted to align with a translation of the legislated 2020 interim target to the new inventory basis. The CCC target advice states that “Without this adjustment, these already challenging annual targets will be made much more difficult to achieve, simply as an artefact of accounting”. As the annual targets are set as a straight line between the 2020 and 2030 interim targets, in order to amend the annual targets from 2021 to 2029 it is necessary to adjust the level of the 2020 interim Scottish emissions reduction target under section 2A(1) of the 2009 Act.

If the adjustment is not made, the 2021-2029 statutory emissions targets will be inconsistent with the accounting methodology – known as the ‘GHG Account’ - used to measure progress against them.” Further information on the ‘GHG Account’ is at Annex A.  

Mechanisms agreed by the Scottish Parliament and enshrined in the 2009 Act anticipate adjustments to targets being made in light of new data and improvements to the greenhouse gas inventory. As highlighted in the CCC target advice, “Technical changes leading to the targets becoming unachievable is not the intention behind the Act. Indeed, the reason for its mechanisms around emissions accounting and the five-yearly reviews is to ensure that inventory changes on their own do not make the targets unachievable.” 

The CCC target advice is clear that adjusting the annual targets for 2021-2029 does not represent a lowering of ambition. The CCC also say that “Should the annual targets in the 2020s not be corrected, there is a real risk that the targets being missed every year would undermine the credibility and strength of the Scottish framework for emissions reduction.” The CCC do not recommend adjusting the 2045 net-zero target year or the 2030 and 2040 interim targets, as legislated by the Scottish Parliament.

Extent to which the modification takes account of the target-setting criteria

This section highlights considerations the Scottish Ministers have had with regard to the target-setting criteria listed in section 2B of the 2009 Act (see Annex B). The Scottish Ministers are of the view that the proposed modification of the 2020 interim target takes account of, and is consistent with, the target-setting criteria.

The CCC’s advice is clear that the adjustment of the 2020 target is a technical adjustment to account for significant changes to the treatment of peatland emissions in the greenhouse gas inventory. The adjustment has the effect of changing the pathway of emissions through the 2020s but does not impact on the overall ambition of the targets, in particular the level of the interim targets for 2030 and 2040 and net-zero target year are unchanged. 

The Bill for the Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019, which set out proposals to increase the ambition of Scotland’s emissions reduction targets, was accompanied by a number of impact assessments to identify the wider effects of the proposals. This included a joint Equality, Children’s Rights and Wellbeing and Fairer Scotland Impact Assessment, a Business and Regulatory Impact Assessment as well as a Strategic Environmental Assessment. The conclusions of these assessments are not altered by the CCC’s recommendation to adjust the 2020 target on the basis that it reflects a change in international carbon reporting practice, and the level of the interim targets for 2030 and 2040 and the net-zero target year are unchanged.

The Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 (Interim Target) Amendment Regulations 2023 do not set out any new information on, or changes to, which actions must be taken to deliver the reductions in emissions. If the Regulations are approved by the Scottish Parliament, the policies and proposals in the Climate Change Plan being developed for publication in draft by the end of 2023 will be based on the revised pathway through the 2020s. Full impact assessments will be carried out for the Plan which will also be supported by new sectoral Just Transition Plans ensuring that action to reduce emissions is done in a way which supports environmentally and socially sustainable jobs, creates decent, fair and high value work and supports low-carbon investment and infrastructure.