Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 interim target amendment regulations 2023

Annex B - The target-setting criteria

This annex highlights considerations the Scottish Ministers have had with regard to each of the target-setting criteria listed in section 2B of the Act, including any advice they have received from the CCC.

(a) the objective of not exceeding the fair and safe Scottish emissions budget

The 2009 Act defines the “fair and safe Scottish emissions budget” as “the aggregate amount of net Scottish emissions of greenhouse gases for the period 2010 to 2050 as recommended by the relevant body [currently the CCC] as being consistent with Scotland, in line with the principles set out in article 3 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, contributing appropriately to the holding of the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.”

The CCC target advice says that that the current limit of total emissions in the period 2010 to 2050 of 1,240 MtCO2e, as advised in their 2020 letter to be consistent with their Balanced Pathway, is inconsistent with Scotland’s legislated 2030 target. The CCC recommend it is changed to 1,028 MtCO2e, making it consistent with the legislated interim targets and their recommended annual targets in the 2020s.

(b) European and international law and policy relating to climate change (including the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and protocols to that Convention)

The CCC has assessed the contribution of Scottish targets to global efforts to limit global average temperature increases to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, in line with the aims of the UN Paris Agreement, in their December target advice. The 2021 Glasgow Climate Pact, reaffirmed the global goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C.

The CCC conclude that “Scotland’s targets involve emissions reductions in line with global 1.5°C-compatible pathways”. They say that “By aiming to reach Net Zero by 2045, Scotland is pursuing a faster transition than many other countries. If these targets are met, Scotland will contribute to global efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C both through its emissions reduction and through the strong example it sets for other developed countries to take ambitious action without delay”.

(c) scientific knowledge about climate change

The CCC’s target advice was received prior to publication of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Synthesis Report in March 2023 which provides an overview of the state of knowledge on the science of climate change. The Synthesis Report is based on the content of three IPCC Working Groups Assessment Reports and three IPCC Special Reports which were available prior to the CCC’s advice.

As highlighted by the CCC, the IPCC WGIII Summary for Policy Makers states that globally modelled pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C reduce emissions by 37% from 2010 to 2030. They say that “Scotland’s targets aim to reduce GHG emissions by 68% from 2010 to 2030” and are, therefore, “at the upper end of the range of reductions implied by the IPCC’s 1.5ºC-compatible pathways”.

(d) technology relevant to climate change

Modification of the 2020 target is a technical change to reflect improvements in the Greenhouse Gas inventory that does not change future interim targets or the 2045 target set by the 2019 Act. The Business and Regulatory Impact Assessment for the Bill for the 2019 Act sets out considerations regarding the potential impacts of the proposals in the Bill.   

(e) economic circumstances, in particular the likely impact of the target on—

(i) the Scottish economy;

(ii) the competitiveness of particular sectors of the Scottish economy;

(iii) small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs);

(iv) jobs and employment opportunities.

Modification of the 2020 target is a technical change to reflect improvements in the Greenhouse Gas inventory that does not change future interim targets or the 2045 target set by the 2019 Act. The Business and Regulatory Impact Assessment for the bill for the 2019 Act sets out considerations regarding the potential impacts of the proposals in the bill.  

(f) fiscal circumstances, in particular the likely impact of the target on taxation, public spending and public borrowing

No specific new policies and proposals are being proposed at this time as the CCC’s recommendation is to adjust the 2020 interim target for technical reasons.  

(g) social circumstances, in particular the likely impact of the target on those living in poorer or deprived communities

Modification of the 2020 target is a technical change to reflect improvements in the Greenhouse Gas inventory that does not change future interim targets or the 2045 target set by the 2019 Act. The joint Equality, Children’s Rights and Wellbeing and Fairer Scotland Impact Assessment for the Bill for the 2019 Act sets out considerations regarding the potential impacts of the proposals in the Bill. 

(h) the likely impact of the target on public health

Modification of the 2020 target is a technical change to reflect improvements in the Greenhouse Gas inventory that does not change future interim targets or the 2045 target set by the 2019 Act. The Business and Regulatory Impact Assessment for the Bill for the 2019 Act sets out considerations regarding the potential impacts of the proposals in the Bill. 

(i) the likely impact of the targets on those living in remote rural communities and island communities

Modification of the 2020 target is a technical change to reflect improvements in the Greenhouse Gas inventory that does not change future interim targets or the 2045 target set by the 2019 Act. The joint Equality, Children’s Rights and Wellbeing and Fairer Scotland Impact Assessment for the Bill for the 2019 Act sets out considerations regarding the potential impacts of the proposals in the Bill. 

(j) energy policy, in particular the likely impact of the target on energy supplies, the renewable energy sector and the carbon and energy intensity of the Scottish economy

Modification of the 2020 target is a technical change to reflect improvements in the Greenhouse Gas inventory that does not change future interim targets or the 2045 target set by the 2019 Act. The Business and Regulatory Impact Assessment for the Bill for the 2019 Act sets out considerations regarding the potential impacts of the proposals in the Bill.

(k) environmental considerations and, in particular, the likely impact of the targets on biodiversity

Modification of the 2020 target is a technical change to reflect improvements in the Greenhouse Gas inventory that does not change future interim targets or the 2045 target set by the 2019 Act. The Strategic Environmental Assessment for the Bill for the 2019 Act sets out considerations regarding the potential impacts of the proposals in the Bill.

(l) the likely impact of the target on the achievement of sustainable development, including the achievement of the United Nations sustainable development goals.                                                             

The Scottish Government had made a dual commitment to tackle poverty and inequality at home in Scotland, and to work internationally with partner countries of Malawi, Rwanda, Zambia and Pakistan. Scotland’s National Performance Framework aligns with the United Nations sustainable development goals, ensuring that these objectives are increasingly located at the centre of policy-making and delivery. The Scottish Government’s International Development Strategy is also aligned with the SDGs. This sets out a vision of embedding the Global Goals for Scotland to contribute to sustainable development and the fight against poverty, injustice and inequality internationally. Scotland and Malawi also signed a Global Goals Partnership Agreement in 2018, outlining a commitment to contribute the achievement of the goals in partnership. As part of the Scottish Government’s commitment to climate justice, the Scottish Government has trebled its Climate Justice Fund to support vulnerable communities around the world address the impacts of climate change.

(m) current international carbon reporting practice

Considerations associated with current international carbon reporting practice are set out in this statement in the section on reasons for modifying the 2020 interim target.