Scottish climate change adaptation programme 2019-2024: strategic environmental assessment
This SEA investigates the likely significant effects on the environment.
3 Baseline and environmental problems
3.1 Introduction
3.1.1 The 2005 Act requires that the Environmental Report includes a description of the relevant aspects of the current state of the environment and its likely evolution without implementation of the draft programme. It also requires that a description of existing environmental problems be provided, in particular those relating to any areas of environmental importance.
3.1.2 Section 3 presents high-level summaries of the key existing environmental problems relevant to the plan for each of the SEA topic areas, as well as how the environment is likely to evolve in the absence of the draft programme. A more detailed account of the environmental baseline is provided in Appendix B.
3.1.3 In addition, previous relevant SEA work (listed in paragraph 2.3.5) was reviewed to see what could be learnt. A summary of this desk study is presented in Table 2; a more thorough compilation of relevant findings under each SEA Topic headings can be found in Appendix C.
Table 2: Summary of relevant findings from recent SEA work of relevance
Summary of relevant findings from previous SEA Environmental Reports |
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3.2 Climatic Factors
3.2.1 The following tables summarise key environmental problems by SEA topic. Further detail is provided in Appendix C, in relation to each SEA topic area.
Environmental Problems |
Likely evolution without implementation of the draft programme |
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The main climate change trends are expected to continue. Without adequate planning, adaptation would be ad hoc, reactive, and is likely to lead to worse outcomes than a collaborative approach that focuses on results, performance, and measurement. |
3.3 Biodiversity
Environmental Problems |
Likely evolution without implementation of the draft programme |
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Without the draft programme, there may be a lack of integration of biodiversity into adaptation activities and poorer coordination and focus in new research. Given the importance of considering biodiversity as a network, and as part of a wider ecosystem this could result in greater habitat fragmentation and biodiversity loss. |
3.4 Population and Human Health
Environmental Problems |
Likely evolution without implementation of the draft programme |
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Without the draft programme, there is likely to be a range of activity implemented to address the effects of extreme weather, minimise public health risks from disease, and improve housing quality. However, the absence of a coherent adaptation programme could mean that gaps arise in linking these measures with adaptation activities for other sectors, in order to secure more beneficial outcomes. |
3.5 Soil
Environmental Problems |
Likely evolution without implementation of the draft programme |
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Adaptation responses will need to support opportunities to keep carbon in our soils. Adaptation responses that support management interventions in soil that could contribute to slowing or even reversing climatic change should be encouraged. |
3.6 Water
Environmental Problems |
Likely evolution without implementation of the draft programme |
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A range of strategies are in place to improve the water environment, by restoring natural processes, managing non-native species, flood risk, water quality, supply and demand. Without the draft programme, opportunities to link adaptation of the water environment with wider priorities such as health and biodiversity may be missed. |
3.7 Air
Environmental Problems |
Likely evolution without implementation of the draft programme |
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Environmental trends suggest that increasing concentrations of air pollution may take place in the future. Climate changes such as higher humidity, could increase this risk. The absence of adaptation measures to address impacts could lead to further risks to the environment, population and human health. |
3.8 Material Assets
Environmental Problems |
Likely evolution without implementation of the draft programme |
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Agriculture, forestry, and infrastructure will need to adapt to climate change impacts. Without the draft programme, there is a lack of an overarching framework to bring together impacts of adaptation across theses material assets, and to anticipate and address issues before they arise. |
3.9 Cultural Heritage
Environmental Problems |
Likely evolution without implementation of the draft programme |
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Increased maintenance demands and physical risks to the historic environment are likely as a result of climate change. Without the draft programme, there is likely to be less co-ordination and management of risks, with more extensive and expensive remediation measures being required at a later stage. |
3.10 Landscape
Environmental Problems |
Likely evolution without implementation of the draft programme |
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Landscape change is likely as a result of direct effects of climate change and the indirect effects of adaptation and mitigation. Some actions to support adaptation in other sectors could have impacts on landscapes. Without the programme, opportunities to balance the consideration of landscape with wider objectives could be missed. |
3.11 Summary of the likely evolution of the environment without implementation of the draft programme.
3.11.1 The Adaptation programme has a key role to play in ensuring that sufficient actions are in place to address climate change risks and opportunities. The draft programme brings together under one overarching framework existing high-level polices and proposals that support adaptation. As a result, the evolution of the environment without the document will not be significantly different in the immediate term. However, in the longer term, each successive Adaptation programme will provide a co-ordinated and systematic approach to addressing the impacts of climate change against which progress can be monitored and reported. The new programme will take an outcomes-based approach, one that is derived from both the UN Sustainable Development Goals and Scotland’s National Performance Framework. This approach seeks to deliver a step change in collaboration and bring a focus on results, performance, and measurement and a significant advance on our previous sector-based or risk-based approaches. The new programme will, for the first time, explore behaviour change - how we steer people and businesses towards the more important choices. Behaviour change has been widely used in climate change mitigation and is potentially as relevant to adaptation. Overall, most effects of the programme are expected to be significant, but will emerge more clearly in the medium to long term.
3.12 The Regulatory Framework
3.12.1 There are a range of regulatory controls in place which may apply to climate change adaptation measures at the project level. These could include listed buildings and scheduled monuments consent; planning and consenting processes; marine licencing; Environmental Impact Assessment; Habitats Regulations Appraisal. These mitigation measures have been taken into account in the assessment of significant effects as ‘assumed mitigation’. Ensuring appropriate design and construction management measures are implemented at project level can also help minimise potential impacts to nearby receptors.
3.13 Relationship with other Plans, Programmes, and Strategies
3.13.1 As required by Schedule 3 of the Environmental Assessment (Scotland) Act 2005, the wider plans, programmes and strategies to which the Adaptation programme relates have been reviewed and summarised in the following table.
Table 3: Relationship between the draft programme and other plans, programmes, and strategies
Plan, Programme or Strategy |
Summary |
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UK Climate Change Act 2008 (‘the 2008 Act’)[12] |
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UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2012[13] |
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UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017[14] |
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UK Climate Projections 2018[15] |
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Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009[16] |
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Low Carbon Scotland – Meeting the Emissions Reduction Targets 2010-2022: Report on Proposals and Policies (RPP1)[17] |
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Low Carbon Scotland – Meeting Our Emissions Reduction Targets 2013-2027: Second Report on Proposals and Policies (RPP2)[18] |
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Climate Change Plan - Third Report on Proposals and Policies (2018-2032) (RPP3)[19] |
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Annual Progress Report to Parliament[20] |
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The 2020 Challenge for Scotland’s Biodiversity[21] |
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The Scottish Rural Development Programme (SRDP) 2014 – 2020[22] |
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Farming For A Better Climate[23] |
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The Scottish Forestry Strategy 2006 and 2019 – 29 (Draft)[24] |
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Scotland’s Economic Strategy 2015[25] |
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Good Places, Better Health 2008[26] |
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The Scottish Soil Framework 2009[27] |
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Scotland’s National Marine Plan 2015[28] |
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The Flood Risk Management (Scotland) Act[29] and Flood Risk Management Plans (FRMPs)[30] |
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The Water Framework Directive (WFD)[31], The Water Environment Water Services (Scotland) Act 2003 (WEWS)[32], and River Basin Management Plans (RBMP)s[33] |
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Cleaner Air for Scotland – The Road to a Healthier Future 2015[34] |
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Historic Environment Scotland Policy Statement 2016[35] |
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Scottish Natural Heritage Landscape Policy Framework[36] |
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The Scottish Energy Strategy: The future of energy in Scotland (2017)[37] |
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The National Transport Strategy (2006)[38] |
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A Land Use Strategy for Scotland (2016-2021)[39] |
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National Planning Framework (NPF3)[40] and Scottish Planning Policy (SPP)[41] |
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Making things last: A Circular Economy Strategy for Scotland (2016)[42] |
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Realising Scotland’s full potential in a digital world: A Digital Strategy for Scotland (2017)[43] |
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