Climate Ready Scotland: climate change adaptation programme 2019-2024
A five year programme to prepare Scotland for the challenges we will face as our climate continues to change.
Annex 2: UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18)
| Scotland’s Climate Projections: Summer and Winter Changes by 2070 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | Emissions Pathway | 10th Percentile | 50th Percentile | 90th Percentile |
| Rainfall* | ||||
| Summer | Low (RCP 2.6) | -37% | -11% | 19% |
| Summer | High (RCP 8.5) | -46% | -14% | 21% |
| Winter | Low (RCP 2.6) | -21% | 8% | 35% |
| Winter | High (RCP 8.5) | -14% | 18 | 52 |
| Temperature | ||||
| Summer | Low (RCP 2.6) | -0.1°C | 1.4°C | 2.9°C |
| Summer | High (RCP 8.5) | 0.6°C | 2.6°C | 4.6°C |
| Winter | Low (RCP 2.6) | -0.6°C | 1.0°C | 2.5°C |
| Winter | High (RCP 8.5) | 0.3°C | 2.2°C | 4.3°C |
* Negative percentages indicate drier conditions, positive percentages indicate wetter conditions.
Scotland’s climate projections are taken from the UKCP18 Climate Projections.
Met Office © Crown Copyright 2018
The UKCP18 Climate Projections provide probability ranges for future climate change. The figures shown in the 50th percentile column are the central estimates. Figures shown in the 10th and 90th percentile columns show the ‘very likely’ range of change. This means the change is very likely to be above the 10th percentile value and very likely be below the 90th percentile value.
Contact
Email: roddy.maclean@gov.scot
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