Community Impact of Public Processions

5 Community Impact: Views Of Residents And By-Standers

Public perceptions

5.1 In order to obtain a detailed analysis of the impact of public processions on local communities, we selected five processions for in-depth analysis.

• The annual Boyne commemoration is a significant event for the Grand Orange Lodge of Scotland. The County Grand Lodge of Central Scotland event in Coatbridge brought together members of the Order from across central Scotland to mark the event (the event rotates on a yearly basis). This is one of the largest annual events in the Orange Order calendar and 76 feeder processions across the central area subsequently join the main procession. An estimated 10,000 men and women participated in the procession, with approximately 15,000 visiting Coatbridge as spectators to the procession.
• The event organised by Cairde na h'Eireann (Friends of Ireland) marked a weekend of events to support the ongoing campaign for justice for the families of the 1994 Loughinisland massacre. The procession through Coatbridge on Saturday 13 July was organised by the local Cairde na hÉireann Margaret Skinnider Cumainn and supported by Cairde cumainn from all over Scotland and England. The procession was accompanied by Irish Republican flute bands from Scotland, England and Ireland, with approximately 6000 people in attendance.
• The Grand Black Chapter holds an annual procession each year and is one of the Loyal Institutions. The 2013 annual demonstration was held in Renfrew with an anticipated attendance of 2500. The main procession in Renfrew was preceded and followed by a number of feeder and return processions to different parts of the region. While the main procession provided an opportunity to watch a large procession going through a small town, our interest was also in the impact of small, but cumulative, feeder and return processions through Glasgow. While present at the main event in Renfrew, our main focus was on two feeder parades (to Bridgeton and Parkhead).
• Procession by Irish Republican Bands Scotland through Airdrie. This was a 'contentious' event carried out by Republican bands with no direct connection to the local area.
• The procession organised by the Pride of Govan Flute Band to celebrate their 30^th Anniversary brought large numbers of bands and spectators into Govan and provided an opportunity to examine an independent (Loyalist) band event.

5.2 Using a multi-method approach, we obtained views of the local community (through pre-survey, post-survey and on-street surveys) in four main case-site areas (Coatbridge, Govan, Parkhead and Bridgeton) with additional on-street surveys conducted in Airdrie. In addition we examined impact through direct observations of the processions and through interviews and focus groups with procession participants (these findings are presented in separately in Chapter 6). While we have included a number of additional processions in our study, the discussion below relates to these four main case-site areas with reference made to the additional sites as appropriate (see Table 2.2, Chapter 2). Further to our discussion in Chapter 2, it should be reiterated here, that there are limits to the extent that the survey findings can be said to truly capture the views of any single 'community' living in any particular area. Therefore, in presenting the results we refer to samples, e.g. 'the Govan sample', the 'Parkhead sample', to indicate that whilst we would be confident that we have captured the views, experiences and feelings of the local people we have spoken with, the extent to which any findings are representative of the wider population or 'community' are uncertain.

Pre-procession public awareness

5.3 Awareness of specific future processions over the course of the summer was mixed, with just over 61% (n=106) of respondents across the four main sites being aware of a future procession. However, this figure in turn is skewed by the near universal awareness in the Coatbridge sample of the large Grand Central Lodge procession and the subsequent annual Irish Republican procession in their town (43 out of 44 respondents were aware of one or both processions). In comparison, just under half of respondents in the Govan sample (20 out of 43) were aware of a specific future procession over the summer in their area. Some respondents commented on their desire for better information:

There is no fore-warning that there are going to take place. I know they are planned but there's no public notification that they're going to happen. (Respondent 170)

General perceptions of processions (pre-procession)

5.4 Respondents were overwhelmingly positive or neutral about most types of processions^[36]. Only 2% (n=3) of respondents held negative views about community processions such as gala day parades, while 18% of respondents (n=21) held negative views about political processions. However, of those who expressed an opinion, a clear majority held 'generally negative views' about Loyalist and Irish Republican processions (53%, n=90 and 56%, n=85 respectively). A number of respondents expressed a dislike of either Irish Republican or Loyalist processions specifically:

I was born in Glasgow and have stayed there all my life, I was baptised a catholic, my mother was a protestant. When the bands and people walk past my house singing [……] I feel like an alien in my own city. (Respondent 233)

I live in an area where there is an orange lodge so I tolerate that there will be walks. The large walk in July is watched by locals who do not necessarily accept the same views/ understand that it is a culture and belief of others. It does attract anti-social behaviour of some followers. (Respondent 71)

5.5 The survey figures are, up to a point, consistent with the original figures produced by the NFO report for Glasgow City Council (2003, p. 45). NFO noted that 53% of respondents in their study 'agreed' or' strongly agreed' that Orange walks 'should be banned' with 56% agreeing or strongly agreeing that Irish Republican walks 'should be banned'. However, having a negative view of processions is not the same as wishing processions to be banned outright, and indeed in our post-procession survey over 80% of respondents (67 out of 80) who reported being 'angry and offended' by a recent procession in their area, nevertheless rated 'freedom of speech' as being 'very' or 'quite' important for public authorities when determining whether to allow processions to take place^[37]. As one respondent remarked:

I value the right of freedom of speech, expression and the right to peaceful protest. But sectarian processions in particular on either side shouldn't be funded by the public bodies. I would like to see an end to them as they are not relevant to modern day Scotland. (Respondent 145)

5.6 Another respondent commented:

It's supposed to be a free country, live and let live, it's been going on since 1690. (Respondent 28)

5.7 Table 5.1 shows the distribution of views on Loyalist walks across samples from Coatbridge, Govan and Parkhead (Bridgeton is excluded as there were insufficient respondents in the sample from this area). The table indicates a possible association between area of residence and views, with residents in the Coatbridge sample the most negative, with nearly three quarters of respondents (33 people) taking a generally negative view, while those of Parkhead were the least negative; where less than half of respondents (34 people) took a negative view. However, these findings may, in part, reflect the particular route of the Coatbridge procession, and by implication a particular bias in our sampling of Coatbridge residents. The Coatbridge procession route was striking in so far as it completely encircled a relatively affluent area of the town^[38]. The degree of disruption for this 'enclave' was considerable (no car access or exit all day), which combined with the more middle-class complexion of the area, might account for the added degree of negativity towards the July 6^th Loyalist procession^[39].

Table 5.1: General views on Loyalist processions, by area sample
Pre-procession sample

	Positive	Neutral	Negative	Total (=100%) (numbers)
Coatbridge sample	4%	22%	73%	45
Parkhead sample	32%	26%	42%	81
Govan sample	21%	26%	53%	43
Total	22%	25%	53%	170

Table 5.2: General views on Irish Republican processions, by area sample
Pre-procession sample

	Positive	Neutral	Negative	Total (=100%) (numbers)
Coatbridge sample	0%	19%	81%	42
Parkhead sample	20%	31%	49%	71
Govan sample	26%	33%	41%	39
Total	16%	28%	56%	152

5.8 A similar pattern was found in relation to Irish Republican processions (Table 5.2). Tables 5.3 and 5.4 show views on Loyalist and Irish Republican processions by religion^[40]/^[41]. There was again some association amongst our respondents between religion and views on Loyalist processions (Table 5.3). People with a Catholic background/heritage were strongly negative, with three quarters (51 respondents) taking this view, while around half of Protestants tended to be positive, with a further third neutral (23 and 16 respondents, respectively). Those with other, or no, religion also tended to be negative, with over half taking this view (25 respondents). Interestingly, Catholics in our sample also tended to be negative about Irish Republican processions (Table 5.4) with just less than two thirds (39 respondents) taking this view, as did half of Protestants (20 respondents) and more than half of those with other or no religion (21 respondents).

Table 5.3: General views on Loyalist processions, by religion
Pre-procession sample

	Positive	Neutral	Negative	Total (=100%) (numbers)
Catholic	4%	19%	76%	67
Protestant	48%	33%	19%	48
Other/none	24%	24%	53%	47
Total	23%	25%	53%	162

Table 5.4: General views on Irish Republican processions, by religion
Pre-procession sample

	Positive	Neutral	Negative	Total (=100%) (numbers)
Catholic	13%	27%	61%	64
Protestant	15%	37%	49%	41
Other/none	21%	26%	54%	39
Total	15%	29%	56%	144

More complex statistical modelling^[42] was applied to the pre-procession data to explore whether area or religion were the most important factors in influencing respondent views on Loyalist or Irish Republican processions. Details of these models are presented in Annex C. Limited as the generalizability of such modelling must be, given the previously already described limitations of the survey sample, the models nevertheless do throw up some interesting indicative findings.

5.9 Principally the modelling suggests:

• Area had a possible association with views, with respondents in the Coatbridge sample being more negative about both Loyalist and Irish Republican events;
• The association between religion and views was less marked. Catholics in the sample were more likely to be negative about Loyalist parades, but there was no independent association between religion and views of Irish republican events.
• Perceptions or experiences of social cohesion^[43] appeared to be consistently associated with views - respondents who experienced less social cohesion tended to be more negative about processions;
• Respondents who felt there was more racial prejudice^[44] in Scotland tended to be more negative about Loyalist processions.
• All else being equal, women appeared to be more negative about processions of both types than men. Three fifths of female respondents felt negative about Loyalist processions, compared with two fifths of male respondents (n=51 and 35, respectively). Similarly, less than half of male respondents (n=35) were negative about Irish Republican events, compared with nearly two thirds of female respondents (n=46).
• Respondent's views also varied according to age. Respondent's views tended to become more negative as they got older, reaching a peak at the early 40s, becoming less negative with increasing age.

5.10 Qualitative data provides clearer illustration of how these indicative findings relating to experiences of social cohesion more broadly, were experienced by respondents:

Although I'm happy to be part of Britain, I'm afraid I relate the union jack to BNP/NF/UKIP. I find the flag excluding rather than belonging (Respondent 181).

Mostly the area is home to a varied demographic of accepting and hard-working people. However, there are a number of closed minded people who cannot accept the changes to the areas' community. There are a small number of youths and drunks […]I do not feel comfortable knowing that they live in the area (Respondent 190).

Having lived in this area all my life I am unhappy about the amount of strangers who now reside here (Respondent 111).

There is no community spirit here. Such is the nature of flats in a highly urban area where the turnover of tenants/homeowners is very high. (Respondent 126)

I think people are concerned about anti-social behaviour/safety. Processions may be a part of that but broader issues are managing football fans, poor planning i.e. allowing a half-way house next to the tube station. (Respondent 122)

This area is noisy enough with non-stop building work, drunks yodelling and fighting and football supporters passing by. (Respondent 64)

Post-procession residential surveys

5.11 Only a limited number of survey respondents were successfully followed-up with a telephone interview after a procession in a case-study area (n=62). These follow-up interviews aimed to examine whether the experience of a procession in their community changed respondent views of their community, their sense of safety, or indeed their perceptions of the prevalence of certain social problems (notably sectarianism). Numbers are too small to generate findings that are generalizable to anything beyond the sample itself, though the findings demonstrated a marked lack of variation between the pre and post survey responses: respondent's ratings of their community; and their perceptions of social problems remained largely unaltered, and indeed to the extent there were small shifts in responses there was no uniformity in the direction of these changes (e.g. there was no consistent tendency for respondents to exhibit slightly more negative or positive views post-procession)^[45].

5.12 Our other sample of post-procession residents (n=192) consisted of individuals who had not filled out a pre-procession survey but who had responded to our postal survey (in Coatbridge, Govan, Parkhead and Bridgeton). This group, in contrast, appeared notably more negative in some of their judgements than pre-procession respondents, though it has to be noted that the low response rate for this postal survey would strongly suggest that there was a significant element of self-selection bias in this sample; namely people who had negative views of a recent procession were more likely to be motivated to fill out and return the survey. Amongst this sample the most common complaints about the impact of a recent procession in their communities^[46] are shown in Table 5.5 below. Post-procession assessments (based on a postal sample of 192 people in these four sites) found that respondents tended to associate both Loyalist and Irish Republican processions with a range of social problems. For example around three quarters of respondents agreed that a recent procession had led to anti-social behavior (76%) or caused tension in the community (73%). Furthermore a clear majority of respondents agreed that they were held up or delayed, or felt annoyed/upset by the noise associated with a procession (69% and 67% respectively).

Table 5.5: Post Procession Postal Survey: complaints
Percentage strongly or somewhat agreeing with each statement

		Base (=100%)
It caused tension in the community	73%	147
It led to anti-social behaviour	76%	142
I felt threatened/intimidated by some of those watching the event	59%	141
I was held up or delayed	69%	130
I was annoyed/upset by the noise	67%	144
I felt angry and offended by the procession or those taking part in the procession	59%	145
I felt like I was in physical danger	32%	143

5.13 Whilst not all respondents could recall the specific procession in their area that was being looked at as part of this research, nearly nine in ten respondents (87%) could recall one or more procession over the previous few weeks, and the most commonly identified type of procession was, overwhelmingly, Loyalist processions followed by Irish-Republican 'type' processions. Some 90% (165 respondents) of those who were aware of a procession had either seen it or heard it directly, though a small number of respondents (10 people) had also taken steps to directly avoid a particular procession (e.g. by leaving the area for the day).

5.14 A small minority, less than one in five, of post-survey respondents (27 in total), either took part in or chose to watch some of a procession. Across a wide range of questions, those who chose to attend a procession were likely to have much more positive views of their community impact and the general amenity of the procession than those who may have heard or seen the procession but did not directly attend it. For instance whilst over two fifths of attendees 'somewhat agreed' or 'strongly agreed' that the procession gave them a sense of community spirit, less than one in ten (8 people) of other respondents answering this question held similar views. Over three fifths of attendees 'enjoyed themselves' compared with only less than one in twenty (just 5) of other respondents. Conversely non-attendees were far more likely to agree that the procession caused community tension: more than four fifths (98 respondents) of non-attendees felt this way, compared with two fifths of attendees (11 respondents); or that it led to anti-social behaviour, with more than four in five of non-attendees (121 respondents) holding this view, compared with one third of attendees (7 respondents). Not all attendees were comfortable with the behaviour of some spectators, though, with nearly a quarter of this group feeling threatened or intimidated to some extent by some of the people watching the event (compared to two thirds of non-attendees, or 69 people).

5.15 Anti-social behaviour by perceived supporters or 'hangers on' was a common cause of anxiety amongst respondents:

It's usually followed by foul-mouthed drunks who I have witnessed swearing and even spitting at other passers-by that maybe are not of the same side. (Respondent 84)

The spectators are frequently under the influence of alcohol. In my opinion they are used to incite religious bigotry. (Respondent 128)

The 'procession' was an excuse for drunken, anti-social behaviour with large numbers of spectators drinking in the street, swearing and shouting abuse, while strolling topless and scaring people on the pavements. (Respondent 33)

Whilst those in the procession did not cause me offence, a lot of the spectators were rude and aggressive. I feel the entire event is a massive waste of public resources. (Respondent 161)

5.16 Though some element of bias may have resulted in more negative post-procession survey results, in other respects the post-procession data evidenced similar patterns of attitudes to the pre-procession responses. We concentrate here on views of Loyalist processions, as these were the most commonly recalled events. As before, Protestants tended to be more positive about Loyalist processions than others, whilst Catholics and those with other, or no religion, were more likely than Protestants to have a negative reaction. For example, over four fifths of Catholic respondents (32 of 38), and three-quarters of those with another or no religion (55 of 75) agreed the procession they recalled had caused tension, compared with less than half of Protestant respondents (8 of 17). Similarly, nearly three fifths (24) of Catholic respondents and over half of those with other or no religion (44) felt angry about the procession, compared with less than half (7) Protestant respondents.

5.17 Respondent's wider views about Scottish society were also associated with their reactions to the recent procession. Figure 5.0 shows that respondents who perceived there to be more sectarianism in Scottish society tended to be more negative about the Loyalist procession they recalled.^[47] However, unlike the pre-procession survey neither social cohesion nor location was associated with views of the processions. When it came to taking a negative stance toward a recent procession it was someone's religion and perception of sectarianism that was important, not where they lived (and thus the specific procession concerned)^[48].

Figure 5.0: Association between views on sectarianism and recent Loyalist procession

5.18 It should be noted that the association between perceptions of sectarianism and reactions to the processions is unlikely to be unidirectional. That is, it is equally possible that a negative reaction to the relevant procession heightened perceptions of sectarianism, or that heightened perceptions of sectarianism made respondents react more strongly to the processions. Equally it may be that other independent factors (such as a respondent's cumulative experience of sectarianism over their lifetime), may independently influence both their assessment of processions and sectarianism in Scottish Society. All statistical modelling can do is under-line the strength of the association between views on sectarianism and views on the processions, and given the highlighted limitations of the post-procession sample, this association must be viewed as tentative.

5.19 Another way of considering the salience of sectarianism is to explore the extent that perceptions of sectarianism are linked to experiences of real prejudice. Whilst well over half of respondents in the post-procession postal survey indicated that in their view sectarian behaviours in Scotland were either 'quite common' or 'very common' (jokes 72%, use of sectarian terms 74%, vandalism 64%, violence 65%, harassment and intimidation 62%); a quarter of respondents (38 out of 152), claimed to have experienced discrimination on the grounds of their religious beliefs or background. This compares to 17% (n=24) of respondents who claimed to have experienced discrimination on the grounds of their ethnicity^[49]. Moreover, people who described themselves as 'Catholic' in the sample were more likely to report having experienced discrimination on the grounds of religion than other groups, whilst Catholics and people from other non-Christian religions were both more likely to have claimed discrimination on the grounds of ethnicity. This suggests that personal experiences of discrimination for a sizeable minority of respondents were potentially important in informing views of sectarian behaviour more generally; whereas for others it may have been more second-hand observations and perceptions (such as observing processions) that may have informed these judgements.

Governance of processions

5.20 Respondents to the post-procession survey were also asked the types of factors they thought local authorities should take into account when making decisions about procession notifications. For example, nearly all (97% or 175 respondents)^[50] thought the risk of serious damage to property was very or quite important; 98% thought the risk to public safety important; and 87% thought likely disruption to traffic important. Conversely, 83% thought freedom of speech was an important issue, while 53% thought it was important to consider whether the procession was a traditional event or not.

5.21 Once again, it seems that sectarianism is an important lens through which people view processions. It may be that when they see sectarianism as a problem they are more attuned to the negative aspects of processions and these take precedence when they are thinking about how such events should be regulated or governed.

5.22 Respondents were, however, generally unclear as to what they could do if they heard about a procession they wished to object to. Only 10% responded 'Yes' when asked "If you hear about a planned procession in your community that you are unhappy about, are you aware of how to register your concerns or how to object to a procession taking place?" There was no significant variation in responses to this question across the research sites.

5.23 However, responses to objections were not always perceived as satisfactory. As one respondent noted:

I have previously complained to the council about the high frequency of orange walks in this area. I received a standard reply which mentioned the religious sensitivity of such walks. I was not complaining due to religious or sectarian reasons, but due to the frequency, noise, disruptions, delays and general atmosphere associated with the walks. (Respondent 1)

Perceptions of Community Impact: Street surveys carried out on the day of the procession

5.24 Turning to the day of the processions themselves we surveyed spectators and passers-by. Unsurprisingly given that most respondents were sampled near a procession route either just after a procession had passed by, or generally within no more than an hour of a procession having passed by, 90 of the 105 respondents (86%), were aware that a procession had taken place, even if they themselves hadn't witnessed it. Indeed 68% of all respondents had prior knowledge that the event was to take place, typically having heard about it via word of mouth or local media. However, in common with the surveys conducted prior to processions in the case-study sites, knowledge of an event varied markedly between areas with a large majority (57 out of 64) of respondents having heard of the processions in advance in Coatbridge (again unsurprisingly given the prominence of the processions), whilst in the Gallowgate none of the respondents had a prior knowledge of the Irish Republican procession and only a handful had a prior knowledge of the small Royal Black return procession that took place in the area.

Table 5.6: Respondents relationship to procession
'On-street' sample

Respondents and the procession	%	Totals (numbers)
There to participate*	30%	35
Not there to participate but watched/heard it	51%	59
Didn't notice the procession	19%	22
TOTAL	100%	116

*Either as a spectator or as a processor

5.25 Of those who participated in the survey, just under a third were there to participate; which was taken to mean that they had deliberately set out to either watch or take part in the procession. Those who 'just watched/heard' the procession were mostly individuals in the area for other reasons (e.g. shopping) though we cannot entirely rule out some overlap between these first two categories^[51].

5.26 A small number of respondents across the four areas (seven in total) claimed that they had deliberately avoided the procession on that day.

5.27 In general, respondents surveyed across all areas who neither actively participated or deliberately chose to observe the procession^[52], tended to view processions more negatively than those who actively came to watch to watch or participate. However, as Table 5.7 demonstrates there were distinct patterns to bystanders' attitudes: respondents tended to be more negative about perceived, broader community impacts (in terms of tension and anti-social behaviour) than feeling directly threatened, offended, or disrupted by the procession themselves.

Table 5.7: Bystander attitudes to processions
'On-street' sample across all areas

	Strongly /somewhat agree	Neither agree nor disagree	Strongly /somewhat disagree	Total[53] (=100%) (numbers)
I enjoyed watching the march/parade	43%	5%	52%	62
I was annoyed/upset by the noise	27%	8%	65%	66
It was well organised/stewarded	69%	6%	25%	55
I was held up or delayed	35%	6%	59%	66
It caused tension in the community	60%	6%	33%	63
It led to anti-social behaviour	54%	5%	41%	63
I felt angry or offended by the march or marchers	34%	10%	55%	67
I felt intimidated/nervous	27%	2%	71%	63

5.28 In contrast, people who came to deliberately watch a procession, albeit being a minority of respondents, were generally more positive, with the majority agreeing that the procession was enjoyable to watch (35 out of 38), and only a minority agreeing that the procession led to anti-social behaviour (2 out of 37). One key finding common to both groups though was that the majority of respondents, regardless of whether they were there to deliberately watch a procession or not indicated that the events were well stewarded and well policed, with over 82% of respondents (n=77) agreeing that the procession they had observed was 'well policed'.

5.29 There were few discernible differences in terms of levels of support or opposition by type of procession. Differences were more marked however, when it came to comparing responses across case-study sites. For instance, in Coatbridge (for both the Orange Order and Cairde na h'Eireann processions) and Govan (Pride of Govan Flute Band Anniversary) an appreciable proportion of bystanders rated the processions positively in terms of generating 'excitement in the community' (20 out of 33 strongly or somewhat agreeing), and in generating 'community spirit' (18 out of 33). The comparatively positive bystander attitudes in these particular case study areas may well have had more to do with the relatively large scale of these processions vis-à-vis the other areas, and though amenity was rated higher by bystanders, so were issues of disruption (in terms of being held up or delayed). Conversely the Loyalist procession through the Gallowgate area, though covered by a low number of responses, was rated very negatively by the majority of bystanders, who associated it with causing offence (10 out of 17 respondents) and leaving almost half of all respondents (6 out of 14) feeling in some way physically 'in danger'.

5.30 Finally in terms of the characteristics of respondents, there were few differences in terms of a respondent's age or gender. Younger people (in particular those aged 24 and under) were proportionately slightly more aware, and were more likely to be participants in processions, though respondent numbers are low and should therefore be treated with caution. Women did not significantly differ from men in most respects in terms of how they viewed processions, which contrasted with pre and post procession surveys where women tended to be more negative about processions. However, this result may be due to sampling differences, with the smaller on-street sample leading to different results. It may also be hypothesised that women with more negative views of processions may have taken more active steps to avoid processions on the day, and therefore may not have been available for interview (see Goodall and Malloch, 2013).

Perceptions of business respondents

5.31 Nearly all the processions studied took place on a Saturday, and the majority also passed near, or through, for at least some of their route, retail areas. Responses were obtained from 105 businesses surveyed across four sites (Coatbridge, Govan, Airdrie and Gallowgate) with the smallest number surveyed in Airdrie and the largest number in Coatbridge.

Table 5.9 Responses from business respondents

Location	Number	Percent
Coatbridge*	38	36%
Govan	22	21%
Airdrie	17	16%
Gallowgate	27	26%
Total	104	99%

*Responses from Coatbridge relate to two processions (one Loyalist and one Irish Republican) that occurred within days of each other.

5.32 Survey responses were drawn from businesses that would normally be open and trading at the time of a procession and which were proximate to the procession route^[54]. A natural limitation of this approach would be that businesses that closed deliberately because of a procession were missed^[55].

5.33 In most of the case-study sites there was a high level of awareness on the day of processions taking place (84 out of 104 businesses). In contrast, prior awareness was less marked (57 out of 104), the exception being Coatbridge (where the council sent out letters and there was extensive local media coverage). No fore-warning of a procession was a common source of frustration for some businesses as it potentially prevented them from taking mitigating action.^[56]

5.34 Across the four sites where business surveys were conducted, views were highly polarised in respect of how respondents viewed the commercial impact of processions. For instance whilst 43% (n=44) of all respondents agreed or strongly agreed that business was quieter on the day of the procession, the remainder either had no view or disagreed with the statement (35% n=36) disagreeing or strongly disagreeing). Views as to the atmosphere surrounding processions were more negative, suggesting that ratings of commercial impact were not simply reducible to having a favourable or negative opinion of the procession. Regardless of the type of procession, in some instances, whether because of size or 'atmosphere', they had the potential to make access to businesses difficult or unattractive for staff and customers alike:

Affected business… drives away customers. Same for any march. Same tomorrow for bagpipe competition, couldn't park cars. (Respondent 83)

Not notified. Would like to be notified, as when there is a march you don't get a lot of custom regardless of what type of walk. (Respondent 85)

5.35 The majority of respondents 52% (n=51) disagreed or strongly disagreed that the day of the procession could be characterised as 'festive'. However, though the majority may not have positively rated the atmosphere, a smaller number saw the atmosphere as being more problematic, e.g. having resulted in 'a lot of rowdy behaviour' (Figure 5.3). Thirty businesses strongly or somewhat, agreed with this statement.

5.36 When business respondents identified problems, this was mostly associated with 'followers' and 'hangers on' rather than the processors themselves:

Generally speaking, increased potential for trouble from hangers on. Doesn't create a positive atmosphere, people will stay out of their way if they know they are coming (Respondent 92).

Rowdy element among spectators all wearing […..] football regalia, singing songs, flags etc… nothing to do with the lodges […] Lodges don't cause bother, just disruption (Respondent 18).

5.37 Across the case-study sites it was interesting to observe that Coatbridge was the most polarised location in terms of very different attitudes to both Loyalist and Irish Republican processions, with respondents noting business was either much busier or much quieter. Ratings of commercial impact do appear to reflect business and location characteristics to some extent, though patterns of impact were complicated. Certain types of business such as newsagents and café's seem, on balance, to perceive that they benefitted from procession days (and as many of the processions took place in warm summer conditions, much of this increase in activity was associated with buying soft drinks). The picture for public houses seems to be more polarised, which is not surprising given that many pubs have known allegiances which might make them either popular, or shunned, destinations on the day of a procession.

Busier last Saturday due to walk last week, better atmosphere last week at other walk. (Respondent 47)

Business been dramatically quieter, kitchen been closed and only one door open. (Respondent 10)

Day and night, easily 70% quieter. (Respondent 22)

£2000 down on the tills. (Respondent 5)

Fine - benefit for business… increased by most events like Orange walks. (Respondent 74)

5.38 The least commercially affected of the four sites appeared to be Airdrie, where awareness of the procession was low and where few respondents considered there to have been an impact on business. Overall, however, estimates of commercial impact varied across the sites, making it difficult to draw any definitive conclusions.

5.39 The commercial impacts (whether positive or negative) of smaller parades however were less marked, or at least more transient:

No issues, so early and such a small parade. (Respondent 39)

A little quieter especially when they are passing by, but no big change the rest of the day. (Respondent 62)

5.40 That said, regardless of procession size, the frequent occurrence of contested or controversial processions in the Gallowgate area, in particular Loyalist processions, was viewed as problematic:

Closed door and shutters and watched it go by. How many do they need? There is one nearly every week. (Respondent 80)

Why can they not miss the Calton area?.[…] Allowed to do it in the East End. Wouldn't get away with it in the West End. People would protest. The council should notify us - a programme of marches. They can't just pop-up. (Respondent 24)

Recorded Crime

5.41 A final approach to examining impact was to look at police incident data for the police beat areas in which the processions took place to assess whether crime levels and associated calls for police assistance were:

• Higher on procession days than on equivalent Saturdays or other days either side of the processions.
• Were higher in the weeks either side of the procession days than the weeks through the rest of the year (assuming that processions may lead to anti-social behaviour (ASB) and disorder in the days leading to, and following on from, a controversial procession).

5.42 Data was obtained from Police Scotland which was analysed to identify if processions were linked with higher levels of police incidents and calls for service. The data covered police records of specific 'incidents' (the majority of which seem likely to have originated in a call from a member of the public) which could, conceivably, be linked to or triggered by the procession, such as public nuisance, disturbance, hate crime, drinking in public, and assault^[57]. The full list is provided in Annex D.

5.43 Data at three levels were provided: the beats where the key case-study processions took place (Bridgeton, Parkhead, Govan and Coatbridge); the relevant divisions (Greater Glasgow and Lanarkshire); and the former Strathclyde police area as a whole. Similarly, the data were aggregated across three different time periods: daily, for a period stretching from two weeks before to two weeks after the day of the relevant procession; Saturdays only (all processions occurred on a Saturday) from June 2010 to September 2013; and weekly, for the same long-run time period.

5.44 As patterns in the data for all four areas were broadly similar, the figures for only one area, Coatbridge, are presented here (see Annex E for other figures). Turning first to the daily data, Figure 5.5 shows the daily incident reports for Coatbridge. The solid lines identify the days of the processions, while the dotted lines identify the immediately preceding and succeeding Saturdays^[58].

Figure 5.5: Daily incidents, Coatbridge (processions took place on 6 and 13 July - as indicated by the solid vertical lines)

5.45 Figure 5.5 (and see also Annex E) suggests that there is little or any evidence that the processions are linked with an increase in incidents in the immediate area in which they take place. While there were relatively more incidents recorded on days when processions took place than on many other days, this seems to be almost entirely due to the fact that they occurred at the weekend when there are more recorded incidents on a regular basis. Of course many of these weekends may also play host to other processions, football matches and other events that are associated with higher incident rates, so whilst we cannot discount the fact that processions contribute to the 'weekend' mix, there is no evidence to suggest that their contribution is anyway notable. This pattern held when analysis was limited to only the most common types of incidents across the four areas (these included 'assist member of the public', disturbance, domestic incident, and theft). There was, again, no evidence of a significant spike in incidents on the days of the processions.

5.46 The Saturday data, which was provided stretching back to the summer of 2010, can be used to examine events on the day of the procession in a longer time frame. This also allows some small consideration of whether the processions had any identifiable 'spill-over' effect on the wider divisional area. Figure 5.6 shows recorded incidents for each of the four areas (Govan, Parkhead, Coatbridge and Bridgeton) indexed on 5^th June 2010. Alongside are shown incidents aggregated at the Division (Glasgow or Lanarkshire) and, for comparison, Strathclyde-wide levels, again indexed on 5^th June 2010. Indexing allows presentation of all three figures in one chart - the actual numbers involved are of course very different. For example, on 5^th June 2010 there were 30 recorded incidents in Bridgeton, 1,385 in Glasgow division, and 3,744 in Strathclyde as a whole.

Figure 5.6 Saturday incidents: Coatbridge, Lanarkshire Division and Strathclyde (processions indicated by the solid vertical lines)
Indexed on 5^th June 2010

5.47 Figure 5.6 appears to confirm that there is no real spike in incidents associated with the two Coatbridge procession days (on the 6^th and 13^th July). Most notably, the number of incidents recorded at each site on the days of the processions is both lower than other Saturdays around the same time (albeit higher than on some others) and, in almost all cases, lower than the numbers recorded on Saturdays at the same time of year in 2012, 2011 and 2010 (marked by the dotted lines). This latter finding seems likely to be at least partially due, however, to a general decline in the rate of incidents recorded across the period in question, whether this is at the local area, divisional or Strathclyde level. Another way to look at this is to note that the decline in the number of incidents over time does not seem to have been affected in any significant way by the processions of 2013.

5.48 Finally, the weekly beat level data enables examination of the long run weekly pattern of incidents at each site. Figure 5.7 shows that, once again, there seems to have been no significant upswing in the incident rate in the weeks when the processions were held.

Figure 5.7: Weekly Beat Data, Coatbridge (processions indicated by solid vertical line) June 2010 to September 2013

5.49 Key points:

Pre-procession survey results (based on a door-to-door and on-street sample of 178 people in Govan, Coatbridge and Parkhead)

• Whilst respondents were overwhelmingly positive or neutral about most types of processions, a clear majority held 'generally negative views' about Loyalist and Irish Republican processions (53% and 56% respectively). This varied by area and may have been associated with size of procession and route.
• Survey data highlighted different levels of awareness among respondents about forthcoming processions; although across all sites, the majority of respondents were aware of a future procession in their local area. Characteristics of respondents appeared to have some association with attitudes towards certain types of processions, in particular with respondents of a Catholic background being more negative about both Loyalist and Irish Republican processions.
• Respondents who experienced low levels of social cohesion in their local area appeared to be more negative about both Loyalist and Irish Republican processions than those who indicated that they felt a sense of 'belonging' in their local area; while respondents who were of the view that racial/ethnic prejudice and/or sectarianism was an issue in Scotland also tended to be more negative about these types of processions. However, these associations are complex and tentative. For example, it is unclear as to whether lower social cohesion results in processions being assessed more negatively, or whether negative attitudes to processions result in lower social cohesion.

Post-procession survey results (based on a postal sample of 192 people in Coatbridge, Govan, Parkhead and Bridgeton)

• Post-procession responses indicate that those who took part in or chose to watch a procession (although constituting a small minority of the sample - less than 1 in 5 respondents, 27 in total) were likely to have more positive views of the impact on their community than those who did not actively attend it, with non-attendees reporting that processions, in their view were associated with a range of social problems.
• For example, around three quarters of respondents agreed that a recent procession had led to anti-social behavior (76%) or caused tension in the community (73%). Furthermore a clear majority of respondents agreed that they were held up or delayed, or felt annoyed/upset by the noise associated with a procession (69% and 67% respectively). Just under a third (32%) of post-procession survey respondents reported feeling in physical danger.
• Respondents who perceived sectarianism to be a problem in Scotland appear to also hold more negative views of processions by Loyalist and Irish Republican organisations. Whilst more than 50% of respondents to the post procession postal survey indicated that sectarian behaviours (such as jokes, use of sectarian terms, vandalism, violence, harassment and intimidation) were 'quite common' or 'very common' in Scotland, around a quarter of respondents (38 people out of 152) claimed to have experienced discrimination on the grounds of their religious beliefs or background. This suggests that personal experiences were potentially important in informing views of sectarianism generally.

Other measures of impact

• Over 82% of respondents^[59] to a convenience street sample on the day of the procession in Coatbridge, Govan, Airdrie and Gallowgate agreed that the events they had witnessed or participated in were well stewarded and well policed.
• Views from business respondents were mixed. Depending on the size of the procession, the purpose of the business and whether or not it increased trade or impeded access added to the complexity and variability of responses making it difficult to discern any clear patterns across, or within, areas. In terms of the commercial impact a slightly higher number of businesses surveyed (across Coatbridge, Govan, Airdrie and Gallowgate) agreed that business was quieter on the day of the procession than disagreed (44 compared with 36 businesses).
• Despite negative post-procession assessments of Loyalist and Irish Republican processions, an examination of reported crime figures across the case-study sites did not show evidence of notable 'spikes' in anti-social or criminal behaviour associated with specific processions.