Consequences, risk factors, and geography of young people not in education, employment or training (NEET)

Executive summary

Objectives

This report presents findings from a study which investigated the consequences, risk factors and geographies of young people not in education, employment or training (NEET) over the past two decades. The study used the Scottish Longitudinal Study (SLS) which links anonymised individual records from the 1991, 2001 and 2011 censuses and a wide range of data from different sources to allow an effective assessment of risk factors and consequences. Scotland's censuses were also used to examine the geographies of NEETs.

This research will be used to inform policies aimed at assisting the Scottish Government to achieve its objectives around supporting young people into post-16 education, training and employment. The research provides new longitudinal evidence which may help to understand past and current policy impacts (such as 'More Choices, More Chances' and 'Opportunities for All') as well as informing future policy development.

Who are NEET?

NEET individuals were defined by the economic activity variables asked in the national census. A NEET individual is thus defined as one who, at the time of the census, is aged between 16 and 19, either unemployed, seeking work and ready to start within 2 weeks, or economically inactive due to looking after home/family, permanently sick/disabled, or other reasons.

Who was studied?

In order to understand the long-term consequences of being a NEET, two cohorts (groups of people within a certain age range followed up over a period of time) were followed over 10 and 20 years:

Cohort 1: SLS members who were aged 16-19 in 2001 and followed up to 2011 when they were aged 26-29;

Cohort 2: SLS members who were aged 16-19 in 1991 and followed up to 2011 when they were aged 36-39.

In order to help understand what factors might lead to a young person being NEET, two further cohorts were examined, one born in the 1980s and the other in the 1990s:

Cohort 3: SLS members aged 6-9 in 1991 followed up to 2001 when they were aged 16-19;

Cohort 4: SLS members aged 6-9 in 2001 followed up to 2011 when they were aged 16-19.

Key findings - Consequences

There is robust evidence that there is a scarring effect of NEET status in relation to long-term socioeconomic and health outcomes in the 20 years' follow-up. NEET young people remained disadvantaged in their level of educational qualifications.

• The NEET group remains disadvantaged in their educational attainment 10 and 20 years later. More than one in five of NEET young people in 2001 had no qualifications by 2011 compared with only one in twenty five of non-NEETs.
• There is a scarring effect in economic activity. In comparison with their non-NEET peers NEET young people in 2001 were 2.8 times as likely to be unemployed or economically inactive 10 years later.
• The scarring effect is also evident in the occupational positions that NEET young people entered. For example, NEET young people in 2001 were 2.5 times as likely as their non-NEET peers to work in a low status occupation in 2011.
• NEET experiences are associated with a higher risk of poor physical health after 10 and 20 years. The risk for the NEET group was 1.6 - 2.5 times that for the non-NEET group varying with different health outcomes.
• NEET experiences are associated with a higher risk of poor mental health after 10 and 20 years. The risk of depression and anxiety prescription for the NEET group is over 50% higher than that for the non-NEET group.
• Young people who were NEET in 1991 and remained economically inactive in 2001 consistently demonstrated significantly poorer outcomes by 2011 than those who were non-NEET in 1991 and economically active in 2001 and those who were engaged with employment or education in either 1991 or 2001. This suggests that there is a cumulative effect of being out of employment or education on later life chances and this group is the most disadvantaged that need continuing support.
• Young people who changed from NEET status in 1991 to employment or education in 2001 have lower risks of poor life outcomes compared with those who were consistently in disadvantaged positions. However, the negative effect of NEET status in 1991 was not fully discounted by the later engagement of employment or education, indicating the long-lasting detrimental effect of NEET experiences.
• Young people who changed from being non-NEET in 1991 to being economically inactive or unemployed in 2001 have higher risks of poor life outcomes compared with those who were consistently in employment or education. This suggests that economic activity in 2001 is also predictive of later labour market and health outcomes regardless of NEET status in 1991.

Key findings - Risk factors

There is strong evidence that being NEET is associated with several demographic and socioeconomic factors. These risk factors seemed to be similar for young people growing-up in the 1990's compared to the 2000's.

Key findings

• Risk factors are consistent across two cohorts and between males and females.
• Educational qualification is the most important factor. No qualifications increased the risk of being NEET by 6 times for males and 8 times for females in Cohort 3. No qualifications at SCQF level 5 or higher obtained by school stage S4 increase the risk of being NEET by 10 times for males and 7 times for females in Cohort 4.
• Other school factors are important including the proportion of time absent from school and the number of exclusions.
• Two factors are especially important for females: being an unpaid carer for more than 20 hours per week and teenage pregnancy.
• Household factors are also important. Living in a social renting household, living in a family that is not headed by a married couple, living in a household with no employed adults, having a large number of siblings all increased the risk of becoming NEET.
• Local NEET rate is an important factor for both cohorts and genders, with the risk of NEET increasing with local NEET rate.
• A risk score derived from the statistical modelling has potential to identify young people who are at risk of becoming NEET.

Key findings - Geographies

Finally, there is geographical patterning to the proportion of NEETs across Scotland. Socio-economically deprived areas were consistently related to a higher proportion of NEET young people over two decades. Some council areas like Glasgow, North Lanarkshire, West Dunbartonshire, Inverclyde and North Ayrshire displayed rates of young people who were NEET that were persistently higher than the national average over the two decades between 1991 and 2011.