The Contribution Of EU Workers In The Social Care Workforce In Scotland 2022

1. Introduction

Background to the research

The total number of European citizens who have come to live and work in the UK since the start of free movement in 1992 to its end in December 2020 is thought to be in the region of 6 million^[2]. With the UK's departure from the European Union, the impact of Brexit on the UK workforce has been a prominent theme in political and economic discourse.

The United Kingdom European Union referendum (or the 'Brexit' referendum as it is more commonly known) took place on 23 June 2016. The referendum saw a simple majority of 51.9% voting in favour of leaving the EU. On 29 March 2017 the government initiated the official EU withdrawal process, putting the UK on a course to leave the EU by 30 March 2019.

In 2017, in light of evidence on likely skills gaps in the social care sector post-Brexit, the Scottish Government commissioned Ipsos to conduct research to provide robust estimates of the number of non-UK EU workers in specified adult social care and childcare sub-sectors and provide insights into the specific roles and contributions of those workers from the perspective of both employers and EU workers. The research^[3] estimated that EU nationals accounted for 5.6% (including 0.2% from the Republic of Ireland) of people working within the social care and childcare sectors. The qualitative research suggested that staffing was a significant challenge to the sector. However, the UK's decision to leave the EU was cited spontaneously by only a small number of participants in relation to recruitment of staff and not mentioned spontaneously by any in relation to retention of staff in the qualitative element.

Since the EU referendum, concerns about the potential impact of Brexit on the delivery of health and social care have been widely aired with considerable discussion around how many staff in health and social care services might be affected by any change in status or visa requirements. These issues have been raised by professional and employer representative bodies and are of importance to the commissioners and providers of services in their service and workforce planning.

The COVID-19 outbreak has also had a substantial impact on the delivery, composition and demand for health, social care and childcare services, and there has been high profile debate on the scale of, and best response to, labour shortages in various sectors^[4]. This debate has included discussion on the need for access to the international labour market to address labour shortages.

It is within this context that the Scottish Government commissioned Ipsos to carry out this study.

Research objectives

The purpose of the research was to provide estimates and analysis which set out the contribution of EU workers in the social care sector, updating the study that was carried out in 2018. The specific objectives of the research were two-fold:

3. provide robust estimates of the number of EU workers in specified care sub-sectors (adult day care, care at home, day care of children, childminding, housing support, and nurse agencies).

4. provide insights into the specific roles and contributions of those workers from the perspective of employers.

The approach broadly replicates the one developed and used by Ipsos for the original study in 2018 to allow robust comparisons to be made.

Structure of the report

The next chapter of the report sets out the methodology adopted for the research, and provides guidance on interpreting the data. Chapter 3 addresses the first objective, above, providing robust estimates of the number of non-EU workers in specified care sub-sectors. Chapters 4 and 5 address the second objective, drawing on the quantitative and qualitative research respectively. Chapter 6 sets out key conclusions emerging from the research.

Acknowledgements

Ipsos would like to thank the care service managers who took part in the survey and/or a qualitative interview.