The Contribution Of EU Workers In The Social Care Workforce In Scotland 2022
Scottish Government commissioned Ipsos to carry out a repeat of a 2017 study into the impact of Brexit on the UK workforce.
3. Size of the EU workforce
This chapter provides estimates for the size of the EU workforce. It draws on the survey data, along with population figures from Scottish Social Services Council (SSSC) for 2020[10].
Overall size of the EU workforce
The estimate of the percentage of people employed within adult social care and childcare that were EU nationals was 5.0%. (In 2018, the corresponding figure was 5.6%).
Overall, there were around 185,450 people working within adult social care and childcare, so the prevalence estimate of 5.0% equates to 9,320 workers.
All estimates based on survey responses are subject to sampling error. Confidence intervals indicate the likely level of precision. The lower confidence interval (LCI) of the main estimate is 4.0% and upper confidence interval (UCI) is 6.2%. This equates to between 7,370 and 11,280 workers.
A small proportion (0.3%) of staff were from the Republic of Ireland. Appendix A provides a breakdown of the estimates of the number of workers from the Republic of Ireland.
Sub-sectors
The prevalence of EU staff within adult social care and childcare differed by sub-sector, ranging from 0.5% for childminding services to 12.4% for nurse agencies, with the remaining sub-sectors between 4.1% and 6.2% (Table 3.1). Among all adult social care sub-sectors (Adult Day Care, Care Homes for Adults, Housing Support/Care at Home and Nurse Agencies) the percentage of EU staff was 5.4% (+/-1.3%) compared to 5.5% in 2018. Among all sub-sectors relating to childcare (Childminding and Day Care of Children) the percentage was 3.8% (+/-1.3%), compared to 5.9% in 2018.
In terms of absolute numbers of staff, the sectors with the most EU staff were Care Home for Adults (3,290), Housing support/Care at Home (3,090), and Day Care of Children (1,590). The sectors with the fewest were Childminding (20) and Adult Day Care (920).
Among the 'other' sub-sectors combined (Adoption services, Fostering services, Offender Accommodation Service, Residential Child Care, School Care Accommodation combined) the prevalence of EU staff was 4.3% (+/- 3.6%)[11].
| Adult Day Care | Care Home for Adults | Childminding | Day Care of Children | Housing support/ Care at home |
Nurse Agency | Total | All adult social care | All child-care | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population figures | |||||||||
| Total services | 420 | 1,072 | 4,236 | 3,554 | 2,093 | 112 | 11,487 | 3,697 | 7,790 |
| Average staff per service | 15.8 | 49 | 1.02 | 11 | 36 | 75.1 | 16.1 | 38.6 | 5.5 |
| Total staff | 6,650 | 52,920 | 4,300 | 38,300 | 74,870 | 8,410 | 185,450 | 142,850 | 42,600 |
| Survey figures | |||||||||
| Total services (unweighted) | 106 | 255 | 354 | 394 | 325 | 7 | 1441 | 693 | 748 |
| Total staff (unweighted) | 2,106 | 11,261 | 407 | 4,916 | 14,318 | 526 | 33,534 | 28,211 | 5,323 |
| Average staff per service | 19.9 | 44.2 | 1.1 | 12.5 | 44.1 | 75.1 | 23.3 | 40.7 | 7.1 |
| Estimates | |||||||||
| % of staff from EU | 4.4% | 6.2% | 0.5% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 12.4% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 3.8% |
| Total staff from EU | 290 | 3290 | 20 | 1590 | 3090 | 1040 | 9,320 | 7,710 | 1,610 |
| 2018 estimate | 3.8% | 5.9% | 0.3% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 16.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% |
| Confidence intervals | |||||||||
| Lower % | 1.0% | 3.6% | 0.0% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.5% |
| Upper % | 7.7% | 8.8% | 1.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 36.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.1% |
| Lower estimate | 70 | 1,920 | 0 | 880 | 1600 | 0 | 7,370 | 5,550 | 1,060 |
| Upper estimate | 510 | 4,660 | 50 | 2,300 | 4,580 | 3,020 | 11,280 | 9,880 | 2,160 |
Employer type
Table 3.2 presents the estimates by employer type. In percentage terms, EU workers were more prevalent in private sector services (5.4% +/- 1.4%) and voluntary sector services (5.3% +/- 1.8%) than in public sector services (3.1% +/- 2.4%). Here, as throughout the report, differences between sub-groups have been commented upon only where these are statistically significant; that is, where we can be 95% certain that they have not occurred by chance.
| Public | Private | Voluntary | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population figures | ||||
| Total services | 2,577 | 6,897 | 2,013 | 11,487 |
| Average staff per service | 19.2 | 12.2 | 25.7 | 16.1 |
| Total staff | 49,380 | 84,260 | 51,810 | 185,450 |
| Survey figures | ||||
| Total services (unweighted) | 180 | 827 | 434 | 1,441 |
| Total staff (unweighted) | 5,468 | 16,829 | 11,237 | 33,534 |
| Average staff per service | 30.4 | 20.3 | 25.9 | 23.3 |
| Estimates | ||||
| % of staff from EU | 3.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% |
| Total staff from EU | 1,530 | 4,550 | 2,750 | 9,320 |
| 2018 estimate | 3.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% |
| Confidence intervals | ||||
| Lower % | 0.7% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.0% |
| Upper % | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.1% |
| Lower estimate | 330 | 3340 | 1790 | 7380 |
| Upper estimate | 2740 | 5760 | 3710 | 11270 |
Types of Staff
EU staff were more prevalent among auxiliary staff and NMC registered nurses than care staff/practitioners, managers and other staff[14]. Around 6.7% of auxiliary staff (+/- 1.2%) and 5.7% of NMC registered nurses (+/- 1.1%), were from EU countries, compared to 5.0% of care staff/practitioners (+/- 1.0%) and 3.5% of mangers (+/- 0.9%).This equates to 7,160 Care Staff, 1,190 Auxiliary Staff, 640 NMC registered nurses and 280 Managers (Table 3.3).
| Auxiliary | NMC Registered nurses[16] | Care staff/ practitioners (excl. nurses) | Managers | Others undefined | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population figures | ||||||
| Total staff | 17,640 | 11,290 | 143,340 | 7,950 | 4,310 | 185,460 |
| Survey figures | ||||||
| Total staff (unweighted) | 4,076 | 910 | 25,234 | 2,092 | 1,222 | 33,534 |
| Estimates | ||||||
| % of staff from EU | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 5.0% |
| Total staff from EU | 1,190 | 640 | 7,160 | 280 | 140 | 9,320 |
| 2018 Estimate | 5.7% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 5.6% |
| Confidence intervals | ||||||
| Lower % | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 4.0% |
| Upper % | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.1% |
| Lower estimate | 980 | 520 | 5,650 | 210 | 100 | 7,370 |
| Upper estimate | 1,410 | 770 | 8,670 | 360 | 180 | 11,280 |
Region
In terms of NUTS2 regions, EU staff account for the highest proportion of care staff in the North East (6.6% +/-3.8%) and the East (6.6% +/- 1.8%), compared to in the Highlands and Islands (4.5% +/-2.7%) and South West (3.4% +/-1.5%). This corresponds to approximately 4,700 workers in the East, 2,760 in the South West, 1,020 in the North East and 780 in the Highlands and Islands (Table 3.4).
| North East | East | South West | Highlands and Islands | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population figures | |||||
| Total services | 1,141 | 4,736 | 4,276 | 1,334 | 11,487 |
| Average staff per service | 13.6 | 15.1 | 18.9 | 12.9 | 16.1 |
| Total staff | 15,560 | 71,690 | 80,960 | 17,240 | 185,450 |
| Survey figures | |||||
| Total services (unweighted) | 140 | 594 | 510 | 197 | 1,441 |
| Total staff (unweighted) | 3,160 | 12,845 | 13,369 | 4,160 | 33,534 |
| Average staff per service | 22.6 | 21.6 | 26.2 | 21.1 | 23.3 |
| Estimates | |||||
| % of staff from EU | 6.6% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% |
| Total staff from EU | 1,020 | 4,700 | 2,760 | 780 | 9,320 |
| 2018 Estimate | 9.1% | 7.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.6% |
| Confidence intervals | |||||
| Lower % | 2.7% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 4.0% |
| Upper % | 10.4% | 8.4% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 6.1% |
| Lower estimate | 430 | 3,370 | 1,570 | 320 | 7,380 |
| Upper estimate | 1,620 | 6,020 | 3,950 | 1,230 | 11,270 |
Urban/Rural classification
Urban/rural threefold classification was calculated using postcode data. This was missing in 327 cases. The proportion of EU staff in the categories of social services sampled is 9.7% (+/- 5.7%) in remote rural Scotland, 4.6% (+/- 3.0%) in accessible rural Scotland, and 4.8% (+/- 1.1%) in the rest of Scotland. This is equivalent to 7,100 workers in the rest of Scotland, 570 in accessible rural areas and 660 in remote rural areas (Table 3.5).
| Rest of Scotland | Accessible Rural | Remote Rural | Missing data | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population figures | |||||
| Total services | 9,012 | 1,373 | 748 | 354 | 11,487 |
| Average staff per service | 17.3 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 29.5 | 16.1 |
| Total staff | 155,690 | 12,540 | 6,760 | 10,460 | 185,450 |
| Survey figures | |||||
| Total services (unweighted) | 1,136 | 167 | 89 | 49 | 1,441 |
| Total staff (unweighted) | 27,147 | 2,976 | 1,640 | 1,771 | 33,534 |
| Average staff per service | 23.9 | 17.8 | 18.4 | 36.1 | 23.3 |
| Estimates | |||||
| % of staff from EU | 4.8% | 4.6% | 9.7% | NA | 5.0% |
| Total staff from EU | 7,510 | 570 | 660 | NA | 9,320 |
| 2018 Estimates | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.9% | NA | 5.6% |
| Confidence intervals | |||||
| Lower % | 3.7% | 1.6% | 3.9% | NA | 4.0% |
| Upper % | 6.0% | 7.5% | 15.5% | NA | 6.1% |
| Lower estimate | 5,710 | 200 | 270 | NA | 7,380 |
| Upper estimate | 9,310 | 940 | 1,050 | NA | 11,270 |
Summary
The percentage of people employed within adult social care and childcare is 5.0%. This equates to around 9,320 workers. All estimates are subject to sampling error and confidence intervals indicate the likely level of precision. The lower confidence interval (LCI) of the main estimate is 4.0% and upper confidence interval (UCI) is 6.1%.
The corresponding figure from the 2018 study was 5.6% and the 0.6% decrease is not statistically significant.
There has been a larger drop in percentage terms among the childcare sector (3.8% from 5.9%) than in adult social care (5.4% from 5.5%).
A small proportion (0.3%) of staff were from the Republic of Ireland.
Contact
Email: Jamie.Stewart@gov.scot
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