Coronavirus (COVID-19) domestic vaccine certification: business and regulatory impact assessment
This BRIA considers the impacts for businesses and consumers of laying the Regulations under the Coronavirus Act 2020 to mandate the domestic use of Covid Vaccine Certification (referred to as 'Certification' hereafter) in higher risk settings.
Footnotes
1 EAVE II | The University of Edinburgh
2 The REACT 1 programme | Faculty of Medicine | Imperial College London
3 Office for National Statistics (24 September 2021). Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK
4 Public Health England (9 September 2021). Duration of protection of COVID-19 vaccines against clinical disease.
5 Public Health Scotland COVID-19 Statistical Report
7 Get tested for coronavirus (COVID-19) - NHS (www.nhs.uk)
8 Diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 infection (who.int)
9 S0519_Impact_of_false_positives_and_negatives.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)
10 Asymptomatic testing backed by new research studies - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
11 SARS-CoV-2 antigen rapid lateral flow test (LFT) sensitivity | CLEP (dovepress.com)
12 Comparing the diagnostic accuracy of point-of-care lateral flow antigen testing for SARS-CoV-2 with RT-PCR in primary care (REAP-2) - EClinicalMedicine (thelancet.com)
14 Coronavirus (COVID-19): getting tested in Scotland - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
15 Options for the use of rapid antigen tests for COVID-19 in the EU/EEA - first update (europa.eu)
16 WHO (13 December 2020). Coronavirus disease (COVID-19): How is it transmitted?
17 SAGE. Insights on transmission of COVID-19 with a focus on the hospitality, retail and leisure sector.
18 SPI-B (2 July 2020) S0582_High_connectivity_situations_outside_the_occupational_or_workplace_context__1_.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)
19 Public Health Scotland COVID-19 Statistical Report, page 38.
20 Scottish household survey 2019: annual report - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
21 Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine certification: evidence paper update (www.gov.scot), page 40
22 Source: joint NTIA, SBPA, SHG, SLTA, UKH survey – results shared with SG in w/b 15/11; shared with Covid-19 committee in evidence pack for meeting of 18/11/21.
23 The BRIA for certification regulations introduced in October 2021 is available at: Coronavirus (COVID-19) domestic vaccine certification: business and regulatory impact assessment - gov.scot (www.gov.scot). The Evidence Paper published in September 2021 is available at: Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine certification: evidence paper - gov.scot (www.gov.scot). The Evidence Paper published in November 2021 is available at: Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine certification: evidence paper update - gov.scot (www.gov.scot).
24 Scottish Annual Business Survey, Scottish Annual Business Statistics (SABS) 2018, Scottish Annual Business Statistics 2018 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot). Note that SABS excludes financial sector & parts of agriculture and the public sector.
25 BICS weighted Scotland estimates: data to wave 43 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
26 Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine certification: evidence paper update (www.gov.scot). Page 47.
27 Source: feedback to officials from Ambassadors Theatre Group, November 2021
28 Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine certification: evidence paper update (www.gov.scot). Page 40.
29 For instance: Edinburgh nightclub scraps Covid vaccine passports amid huge decline in footfall - Edinburgh Live
30 Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine certification: evidence paper update (www.gov.scot), pages 39-40; Source: joint NTIA, SBPA, SHG, SLTA, UKH survey – results shared with SG in w/b 15/11.
31 Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine certification: evidence paper update (www.gov.scot), page 40
32 Source: joint NTIA, SBPA, SHG, SLTA, UKH survey – results shared with SG in w/b 15/11; shared with Covid-19 committee in evidence pack for meeting of 18/11/21: Microsoft Word - NTIA SLTA Evidence .docx (parliament.scot)
33 Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine certification: evidence paper update (www.gov.scot), page 40
34 Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine certification: evidence paper update (www.gov.scot), pages 47-48. Opinion polling is carried out by YouGov for the Scottish Government: conducted fortnightly with a sample of c.1000 adults 18+ across Scotland – demographically and geographically representative of the online population; fieldwork conducted mainly Tuesday/Wednesday on the dates shown with a small number of interviews on the Thursday morning.
35 Scottish household survey 2019: culture and heritage - report - gov.scot (www.gov.scot),, Table 3.3.
36 COVID-19 Daily Dashboard | Tableau Public. Data accessed 26 November, covering 24 November.
37 Scottish Government (2021). Coronavirus Fortnightly Tracker Weeks 66-79 – Data Tables from 29 June to 23 September 2021 (Question SG_4708_rb on 21-23 September). These figures exclude those who answered: 'Not applicable - would never visit such a venue/attend such an event anyway (23%)'.
38 Scottish Government (2021). Coronavirus Fortnightly Tracker Weeks 80-83 – Data Tables: October 2021 Question SG_4707_rb on 19-21 October, These figures exclude those who answered: 'Neither support nor oppose (13%)'. Question SG_4708 on 19-21 October, These figures exclude those who answered: 'Not applicable - would never visit such a venue/attend such an event anyway (24%)'.
39 Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine certification: evidence paper update (www.gov.scot), pages 39-40.
40 Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine certification: evidence paper update (www.gov.scot), page 40.
41 S1216_Considerations_in_implementing_longerterm_baseline_NPIs.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)
42 Scottish Government (2021). Coronavirus Fortnightly Tracker Weeks 66-79 – Data Tables from 29 June to 23 September 2021 (Question SG_302_rb_2 on 24-26 August).These figures exclude those who answered: 'Not applicable - would never visit such a venue/attend such an event anyway (20%)'. Methodology as per footnote 14.
43 Scottish Government (2021). coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-certification-evidence-paper-update (1).pdf, , pages 34-35.
44 S1216_Considerations_in_implementing_longerterm_baseline_NPIs.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)
45 COVID-19 Daily Dashboard | Tableau Public. Data accessed 26 November, covering 24 November.
46 Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine certification: evidence paper update (www.gov.scot). See pages 45-46 for an overview of pandemic impacts on the broad sectors containing hospitality and events businesses.
47 Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine certification: evidence paper update (www.gov.scot), page 46.
49 Welsh Government (17 September 2021). Covid pass for events & nightclubs announced
50 Strengthened measures to reduce high coronavirus cases in Wales | GOV.WALES
51 COVID-19 Response: Autumn and Winter Plan 2021 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
53 Live Events Reinsurance Scheme - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
54 BICS weighted Scotland estimates: data to wave 43 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot). Estimates are based on businesses that have not permanently stopped trading, with more than 10 employees, and a presence in Scotland.
55 Events Industry defined here using the following SIC2007 codes:
5621 : Event catering activities
9001 : Performing arts
9002 : Support activities to performing arts
9004 : Operation of arts facilities
9311 : Operation of sports facilities
9312 : Activities of sport clubs
68202 : Letting and operating of conference and exhibition centres
74209 : Other photographic activities (not including portrait and other specialist photography and film processing)
79909 : Other reservation service activities (not including activities of tourist guides)
82301 : Activities of exhibition and fair organizers
82302 : Activities of conference organizers
93199 : Other sports activities (not including activities of racehorse owners)
56 Gross value added (GVA) represents the amount that individual businesses, industries or sectors contribute to the economy. It is the value of an industry's outputs less the value of intermediate inputs used in the production process.
57 Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec 2019, ONS.
58 As per previous work for Nightclub related BRIAs (e.g. p54-71: The Health Protection (Coronavirus) (Restrictions and Requirements) (Local Levels) (Scotland) Regulations 2020 (legislation.gov.uk) –Nightclub businesses are defined here as non-charity licensed clubs (within Standard Industrial Classification code 56.301). Nightclubs and sexual entertainment businesses in Scotland fall under this classification. The SIC code definition of nightclubs used here does not align perfectly with the definition of nightclubs used in certification regulations. These statistics therefore represent a best estimate.
59 Gross value added (GVA) represents the amount that individual businesses, industries or sectors contribute to the economy. It is the value of an industry's outputs less the value of intermediate inputs used in the production process.
60 Night Time Industries Association (2021), Covid Status Certification: NTIA Scotland Briefing Paper
Contact
There is a problem
Thanks for your feedback