Coronavirus (COVID-19) Phase 1: supporting evidence for moving to Phase 1 of Scotland's route map

Introduction

Scotland's Route map published on 21^st May describes an evidence-led and transparent approach to easing restrictions and sets out a phased approach towards the future. To judge whether and when restrictions can be changed, a range of evidence will be considered on the progress of the pandemic in Scotland including what we know about the reproduction rate of the virus and data on the number of infectious cases.

To progress from Lockdown to Phase 1 we need to see evidence of transmission being controlled. This includes the R number being below 1 for at least 3 weeks and the number of infectious cases starting to decline. Evidence of transmission being controlled is indicated by a sustained decline in supplementary measures including new infections, hospital admissions, ICU admissions and deaths of at least 3 weeks.

An assessment of this evidence has been completed by Scottish Government analysts:

1. The data on R and infectious pool is sourced from Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic in Scotland (Issue No 2) published 28^th May. This sets out Scottish Government modelling of the spread and level of Covid-19 using data from the week up to the 22 May 2020 using epidemiological modelling.

2. The evidence on supplementary measures has been compiled from a range of data sources including the daily data published on the Scottish Government Coronavirus web page and from weekly reports published by Public Health Scotland and National Records of Scotland. This evidence is based on the latest data published on Wednesday 27^th May.

An assessment of progress against each of the measures is set out below.