Coronavirus (COVID-19) Phase 2: supporting evidence for moving to Phase 2 of Scotland's route map

Introduction

Scotland's Route map published on 21 May describes an evidence-led and transparent approach to easing restrictions and sets out a phased approach towards the future. To judge whether and when restrictions can be changed, a range of evidence will be considered on the progress of the pandemic in Scotland including what we know about the reproduction rate of the virus and data on the number of infectious cases.

The criteria for moving into Phase 2 are:

• R is consistently below 1 and the number of infectious cases is showing a sustained decline.
• WHO six criteria for easing restrictions must be met.
• Any signs of resurgence are closely monitored as part of enhanced community surveillance.

Box 1 below shows the relevant WHO criteria:

Box1: World Health Organisation: Six key criteria for easing restrictions

1. Evidence shows that COVID-19 transmission is controlled.

2. Sufficient public health and health system capacities are in place to identify, isolate, test and treat all cases, and to trace and quarantine contacts.

3. Outbreak risks are minimized in high vulnerability settings, such as long-term care facilities (i.e. nursing homes, rehabilitative and mental health centres) and congregate settings.

4. Preventive measures are established in workplaces, with physical distancing, handwashing facilities and respiratory etiquette in place, and potentially thermal monitoring.

5. Manage the risk of exporting and importing cases from communities with high-risks of transmission.

6. Communities have a voice, are informed, engaged and participatory in the transition.

To progress from Lockdown to Phase 1 we needed to see evidence of transmission being controlled. We published the supporting evidence for moving to Phase 1 on 28 May.

A further assessment of this evidence has been completed by the Scottish Government to inform decisions about moving to Phase 2.

The data on the R value and infectious pool is sourced from Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic in Scotland (Issue No 5) published on 18 June. This sets out Scottish Government modelling of the spread and level of Covid-19 using data from the week up to the 12 June 2020 using epidemiological modelling.

The evidence on supplementary measures has been compiled from a range of data sources including the daily data published on the Scottish Government Coronavirus web page and from weekly reports published by Public Health Scotland and National Records of Scotland. This evidence is based on the latest available data on Wednesday 17 June.

Evidence of progress against each of the Phase criteria is set out below. A decision to move into Phase 2 was taken on the basis of the information summarised here.